My latest board game review for Paste looks at Welcome To, a twist on roll-and-write games that can play any number of players – up to 100, even.

Keith Law: No time for nothing, no Patek Philippe. Just Klawchat.

Joe Cleveland: Mets are crazy, right? Getting Cano giving up players like Kelenic or Dunn seems very dumb unless they get another valuable and controllable player like Haniger.
Keith Law: Hey, any time you can trade your #1 and #2 prospects for a 36-year-old second baseman with a bad contract and a volatile commodity like a one-inning closer, you just have to do it.

Adam: I guess Joe Simpsons comments didnt slide by unnoticed
Keith Law: Fox Sports is claiming his comments had nothing to do with the decision to get him largely off TV, which I find hard to believe. But worse is Simpson’s comments (from the AJC): “I have a very strong protective instinct on the game and its customs and history and traditions, so my comments were only intended as a defensive mechanism of the game.” That is not any sort of apology, or even a remote acknowledgement of the tacit (or less than tacit) racism of his comments. It’s an old white man who doesn’t even know that the customs, history, and tradition of baseball include excluding players of color, then allowing them to play while treating them vastly differently than white players. Whatever the reasons, I’m glad Fox chose to turn this page.

Patrick: Keith, with your front office experience, what do you think the Brewers should do this off-season, esp about SP? Go with the young players? Or push for a Bumgarner type (star SP available for a short time)?
Keith Law: Burnes and Woodruff join the rotation, and they’re both good. I wouldn’t view a top-end starter as a priority. Bulk innings, perhaps, but I wouldn’t go spend prospects.

Patrick: Thanks again for all these chats Keith.
Do you have a favorite holiday/seasonal recipe?
Keith Law: Not really. My daughter and I will make some cookies, like the Italian flag (tri-color, rainbow, seven-layer … they have lots of names) cookies made from almond paste, chocolate, and raspberry & apricot jams.

Ryan: Hi Klaw, Thoughts on the rumored Cano/Diaz to Mets trade? I’m confused why the Mets would include Gimenez.
Keith Law: Gimenez isn’t in the class of Dunn or Kelenic. He’s a solid prospect but doesn’t have that kind of upside.

Dave: Thanks for the chat. Does Brian McCann have enough left to be the Braves’ primary catcher in 2019?
Keith Law: No, nor did they sign him to do that.

Jeff: Currently waiting in line at Little Miss BBQ. Got here at 830. Second in line (opens at 11). Good move or GREAT MOVE?
Keith Law: Great move. Get the brisket.

Mike: Have to run to a meeting, so I’ll take your answer off the air. The (purely hypothetical) return of Medina and JoJo Romero for MadBum is fair, right? I get the feeling in the Bay Area that fans won’t be happy with any return given their sentimental attachment to Bum.
Keith Law: Honestly, I’m not sure if I like that for the Phillies, just because Bumgarner isn’t what he used to be, and I feel like you might get something better if you package Romero (whom I really like) and Medina (more stuff than performance) in another deal.

section 34: I can’t decide between two Orioles questions:
1) What’s a reasonable timeline for the O’s to return to contention?
2) If you were in charge, would you DFA Chris Davis, or take some other action?
Keith Law: I think it’s 4-5 years, and I would DFA him. At least get the 40-man spot back.

Dave: Hi, Keith! Thanks for all of your baseball writing! This is non-baseball, though: With the closing of Cocina Lolo, what do you do for quality Mexican food in your area now? Asking for a Delaware friend.
Keith Law: Honest answer: I don’t. I just get my fix on the road now.

Michael Conforto: Would you ever do science and politics chats or writing? Your takes are more well thought out than most political journalists, and watching you torch anti-vaxxers on Twitter is extremely entertaining.
Keith Law: Thank you. I would if there were a serious professional opportunity to do so. Doing it just on my own probably brings more downside than reward.

DH: Does Peter Alonso have the bat to be an above average DH if he were in the AL? Can he hit 30 hr? And does he give all of that value back if he plays at 1st?
Keith Law: Yes, yes, and not all of it, just some.

Jake Albrecht: Do you abandon books if they’re not working for you? I’m slogging through War and Peace and I thought I successfully left it behind but every time I want to quit I feel guilty about it.
Keith Law: I do, usually early on. If I hit page 100 I’m probably finishing it. I got through War & Peace without too much trouble. Les Miserables is the novel of that length I’d advise everyone to skip.

Kasvot Vaxt: How many wins would this Cano / Diaz deal add to the Mets next year?
Keith Law: I’ll say 5-6. Which makes them … a fourth place team.

Jared: How would you rank the Brewers three young pitchers — Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff — going forward?
Keith Law: Burnes well over Woodruff, who’s then over Peralta.

Matt: Hey KLaw, Mark Bowman reported that acquiring Kluber would likely cost the Braves Kyle Wright, Touki, and Pache. Would you make that trade if you ran the Braves?
Keith Law: No way. Especially with some very small signs that Kluber may be declining relative to his peak. You’re paying for three years and it’s likely none of them is 7-WAR Kluber.

Marshall MN: I don’t disagree with your opinion on the ability of Royce Lewis to stick at SS, but if he can’t cut it there at what level would you expect to see the Twins move him to a different position? At AA?
Keith Law: That’s probably right.

Kacey: Did you know that a witch hunt involves guilty pleas from the President’s personal attorney, campaign manager, deputy campaign manager, foreign policy adviser and national security adviser? When will this witch hunt end???
Keith Law: The great part of the joke is that the witch hunt keeps finding more witches.

Dave: Keith, any thoughts on who the Orioles will replace Gary Rajsich with as their scouting director?
Keith Law: I have no idea.

Ciscoskid: Does the market of available 1B options make Brandon Belt a negative value asset?
Keith Law: No, but it certainly limits his return to the point that it likely makes more sense to keep him.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: What on earth is the Mets FO doing? Actively searching for Syndergaard trade partners, but deGrom is off limits. Also pushing for an old, $120M 1B and a young RP?
Keith Law: We’re just pretending that the Mets’ GM didn’t represent that old 2b (who might be a 1b) and negotiate that deal, right? There’s nothing weird about that?

matt klentak: isnt the opportunity cost for Diaz too high? I mean, you can get Familia and Miller or some duo like that for ~60M, which probably is less than two top 100 prospects + an MLB player for Diaz
Keith Law: Yes, and also, relievers don’t last. Look at the four-year deals just ending – Miller, Kimbrel, Robertson. None paid off well. The first two are clearly less than they were at the start. And I would feel very comfortable betting that Diaz’s 3.5 WAR last year ends up his career high.

Tom C: Yesterday my work was giving out flu shots (I already had mine). Some people around me were debating whether to get one because they didn’t want to get sick from the shot. Me: You know what makes you even sicker? Them: What? Me: The ACTUAL flu. Them: (Blank Stares). Some went and got the shot.
Keith Law: Excellent answer. Also, you can’t get the flu from the flu shot, because the virus in it is attenuated (weakened so it can’t cause the flu).

Adam: What does Francisco Mejia’s stock look like right now? Is it an exaggeration to say that he’s not a Top 5 prospect in the Padres system?
Keith Law: Yes, that’s an absurd statement. Of course he’s top 5 there.

Matt: Thoughts on a couple of Rays rookies from 2018, Joey Wendle and Jake Bauers? Do you believe in Wendle’s big second half, and are you buying Bauers as a bounceback guy despite his struggles last year?
Keith Law: Don’t believe in Wendle at all. Bauers is better than what he showed. Probably never a 20 homer guy, but can hit for a lot more average than that. Think he’s a solid-average regular at 1b.

Steve from PHL: Keith, what is your prediction as to what the Phillies do this offseason- signings, trades, etc? Thanks!
Keith Law: I really don’t do predictions like that. I leave that stuff and the rumormongering to others. I’ll just react as appropriate when there’s real news like a signing.

Paul: Of course if the Mets are stupid enough to trade Kelenic or Dunn then the other moves are irrelevant. However – what were your thoughts on Mets hiring Baird?
Keith Law: That’s the one move there I’ve really liked. I know Allard a little – enough that I know not to shake his hand again, because last time he broke two of my metacarpal bones – but more importantly the people I know well who’ve worked for and with him absolutely rave about him as a baseball guy and a person to work for.

Jon: With the Mets saying they want to “contend” in 2019 and the absurd rumors about trading all their top prospects for Cano and a closer, why do I get the feeling this will be a half baked offseason that drains the cupboards and in a year or two, they’re back in the same spot, only with a terrible farm system?
Keith Law: This feels a bit like the first Preller year in San Diego, when ownership seemed to want him to go all out to try to win, and they traded away a lot of value (especially Trea Turner) while acquiring bad contracts that eventually hamstrung them. The difference is that Preller was able to do a 180 and, with the help of the old international rules, turn their depleted farm system into the game’s best in short order.

JP: Settle a baseball argument: when talking about years of Team Control, is that referring to the Pre-Arbitration years only, or all the years until the player becomes a FA (PreArb+Arb)?
Keith Law: Years until free agency.

Andrew: Given the light return for Paxton, would the Giants be better off holding onto him and taking the comp pick after the season?
Keith Law: Your given is not a given.

Anthony: Hi Keith, thoughts on Andruw Jones and his HoF case?
Keith Law: So I have a vote this year, for the first time, and I have checked off nine names so far. I think I know who my tenth will be, but I’m mulling it over for a few days before I fill out the last one and mail it. I’ll do a column for ESPN+ later this month about it.

Marshall MN: You know what’s crazy, we are only 2 months away from your annual top prospect list, wow does time fly. Are you already hard at work on the top 100?
Keith Law: I am indeed. I’ve spent about 15 hours on the phone since Monday morning, maybe a little more, and have another call at 2 pm sharp.
Keith Law: I do a lot of calls first before I write anything at all.

JR: Does your daughter have a phone? If so, at what age did you get her one? If not, at what age would you feel comfortable? I thought I could hold out until 12/13, but my 10 year old son is already angling for one and many kids younger than him already have one.
Keith Law: She does. It has been really valuable for her to have it to text or call us, and more than once her bus has had a substitute/temporary driver so she’s used the maps to help the driver navigate (which, yes, that’s a whole different set of issues).

Gavin: Is Keston the real deal? He gives me Joe Panik vibes with his lack of power.
Keith Law: Totally dissimilar players, although I don’t think Hiura is a huge power guy. He makes harder contact than Panik.

Jake: Have you ever had BBQ in KC? Thoughts? Q39, Joe’s, Jack stack>>
Keith Law: KC Joes was my favorite. Slappy’s was very good too. Jack Stack is a different experience … BBQ is more of a casual thing, so in a sit-down setting it seems a little weird to me.

Mitch: Do you take much stock in Dominican Winter ball performances? Small sample size, but Heliot Ramos is doing much better than in Augusta. Not sure if that’s growth or he’s facing worse competition.
Keith Law: Ramos is Puerto Rican and is playing in the Puerto Rican Winter League, not the Dominican. I don’t put any stock in numbers from those leagues, though; the level of competition varies far too much even from game to game. I think it’s a positive experience for players, since they get more reps in real game settings.

Andy: It seems like the Braves are valuing higher dollar and shorter year span with contracts. Do you see becoming more common with all teams and move away from the 8 to 10 year deals in the future?
Keith Law: No, because the dynamics of the market will always encourage teams to give that one extra year to land the player.

Chris: Thoughts on Lewis Brinson? That Yelich trade is looking all-time bad right now for Marlins.
Keith Law: Still see upside there. Also, I wouldn’t judge a prospect deal after just one year.

Kyle: Do you think Bryan Reynolds can stick in center field?
Keith Law: I do not.

Mac: We were having a discussion about the most overrated tools and I said arm strength for a catcher. What’s yours?
Keith Law: Velocity. Without any other variables, it’s not all that telling once you’ve hit the major-league minimum (you can’t throw 84 as a RHP and be a major league starter).

AJ: Hi Keith, could you weigh in on a friendly office argument? I told a co-worker I’d rather take Eugenio Suarez (at current deal) over Machado at 8/200 and was called insane. It just seems to be a better use of $, and not even for small market teams only. Am I in fact insane?
Keith Law: Insane is awfully harsh. I just disagree with you.

Jason: Did Reggie Lawson become a prospect this season? Seems like his secondaries improved
Keith Law: He was one before, but he took a nice step forward.

Tony: How can we take strong legislative action on climate change when 1) the Republican base firmly believes scientists are lying, and 2) it’s very hard to take decisive control of the Senate from Republicans, given their demographic advantage in having that same Republican base dominate lots of small rural states?
Keith Law: It would be nice if House Democrats tried a more aggressive tactic of actually pushing bills and forcing the Senate to reject them, but also, the Dems have not done enough to make climate change’s effects a real campaign issue in states like Florida that are going to get seriously fucked by rising seas, more/stronger hurricanes, red tide, etc.

Brian: Do you think Wil Crowe could become a No. 3 starter, or is he more of a high probability 4/5 starter?
Keith Law: I would say virtually no chance he’s a 3.

Chris: Contrarian thought that I think you’d agree with from being in previous chats: Mets would be smart to flip Alonso for relief pitching now at possible peak of his value and roll w Smith at 1B. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on the pitching, but yes, I do agree with that. Have to recognize Alonso has real value to AL clubs, though – I’m not saying you just give him away.

Mike: Love your baseball writing and opinions, as well as your takes on games, food, movies, music and books. I’m curious if baseball wasn’t your primary career, and you could spin any of those (or politics, science, etc) into a new full time writing job, which would you choose?
Keith Law: I’d probably be happy doing any of those. I just love to write.

KeithLawCommenter: Will you dabble in giving out baseball picks for betting? Or ever consider Action Network like Rovell?
Keith Law: No, and heck no.

Larry: What have you heard about Monte Harrison’s adjusted swing? Still hope there?
Keith Law: Saw him in AFL. Not sure what was “adjusted.”

Anthony: Just out of curiosity: what happens to a HOF vote if a qualified writer works for a team? If you took a job as scouting director tomorrow, I assume you’d forfeit your ballot, but if you reenter the public sphere after say, 3 years, do you get it back immediately or have to wait another decade?
Keith Law: No, I’d keep the ballot for ten years.

Dave: Should the Astros trade Tucker+ for Realmuto or sign Ramos or Grandal in FA?
Keith Law: I’d go the free agent route. Tucker may have struggled in his ten minutes in the majors but I think he’s a star.

Sam: What are your thoughts on Trevor Bauer. I’m 99% sure he’s an unbearable human being making a decent point about the arbitration process.
Keith Law: Bauer’s right about a lot of things – he made good arguments about foreign substances on the ball after the initial griping about Houston. He’s just wrong about climate change and immigration and a bunch of other stuff. But I wouldn’t dismiss his views on everything just because he gets a few things wrong.

SC: I am Mets fan but not a fan of Cano but trying to see the big picture– as long as they don’t give up an A-1 prospect and get Diaz and maybe another prospect they’ve improved the team. Then maybe they trade Thor to the Pads for some stud prospects, including Hedges, and fortify up the middle. Can you see that as the play here?
Keith Law: The rumors I’ve seen have them giving up their top two prospects. That’s duh-umb.

TomBruno23: Cardinals need to upgrade the bullpen. For fun, here’s a list of multi-year deals given out by the team to relievers since winning the 2011 World Series: Randy Choate, Seunghwan Oh, Jonathan Broxton, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson. I think that’s the full list.
Keith Law: Yeah, maybe change that up a little. They have so many pitching prospects in/near the majors you’d think they could fill out a bullpen internally.

David: Thanks for all that you do, KLaw. Baseball is a better follow because of you.
Keith Law: Thank you. I try to keep it entertaining & informative, and to not be an unbearable human being making decent points.

Mike: Does the Law household open the majority of gifts on x-mas eve, or day?
Keith Law: Christmas morning.

Anthony: Is Swanson going to hit? If not, should they move him for a corner outfield bat and give Camargo or Ozzie SS?
Keith Law: I think he’s going to hit. I’m a bit less confident than I was a year ago.

Zac: Does Daz Cameron make his debut this year and do you think the jump he made last year is sustainable?
Keith Law: Late 2019, and yes.

Adam: Love your game recommmendations. Thank you. Have you every played Coloretto? Simple card game that can be played with kids down to 8 or younger, but also interesting for adults. A nice palette cleanser at a games night.
Keith Law: I have – maybe a bit too light for me? But a cute game. I believe that came first and then the designer turned it into Zooloretto, which won the Spiel des Jahres.

Billy Eppler: Think Arte will let me buy out pujols contract?
Keith Law: He’s another guy who should be DFA’d to get back the 40-man spot. He’s no longer worth it. Whether the owner accepts this is another matter.

Evan: The general feeling among Cubs fans based on last season’s results and comments from Theo is that the cubs need to make serious changes. However, the team won 95 games despite a lost season from Kris Bryant and a underperforming offense. Do you think the level of concern is warranted or we are overreacting to an early playoff exit and a red hot Brewers team in the last month of the season?
Keith Law: I don’t think they need to make serious changes. They changed hitting coaches, which was probably needed. They retained Hamels, which was smart. I thought they should keep Chavez, whom Texas signed rather inexpensively. But they were one win away from leading the league, and if they had hit at all in the last two months of the season they would have won the division.

Danny: If the Brewers non-tender Schoop, should the Yankees go after him to play 2b and move Gleyber to SS? Schoop was worth 3.8 fWAR 2 years ago but just 0.5 fWAR last year
Keith Law: I would think Schoop would get a lot of interest as a free agent for that reason. His approach, never great, cratered last year, but there’s no reason to think he can’t regain what he was prior to 2018 – he’s not old and he’s not hurt.

Bob in Houston: Would you say Josh James is the #3 prospect in the Astros organization?
Keith Law: He’s in their top 5. I would prefer not to commit to a more specific answer now, while I’m still working on the rankings.

Ben: Surprised by Donaldson taking 1 yr deal? Next year’s 3B market is strong with Arenado & Rendon, which will hurt JD. I figured he’d try to get the best he can now.
Keith Law: Always a chance one of those guys signs an extension, and Donaldson will likely do much better next winter if he’s healthy this year.

Marshall MN: If you were the Twins would you look at transitioning borderline starting level pitchers like Gonsalves and Kohl Stewart into relievers? Any additional ceiling for those guys out of the pen?
Keith Law: Stewart yes, Gonsalves no because I think he can start.

JJ: Who would you rather play at 3rd for the next 5 years: Andujar or Devers
Keith Law: Devers.

Liam: How many innings do you think Touki pitches in MLB next year, and what kind of performance would you expect from him? Mid-rotation arm with flashes of a #1?
Keith Law: Your prediction sounds right to me. I think he makes 20 starts.

Rob: Will you be at Pax Unplugged at all this weekend? Anything you’re particularly interested in seeing?
Keith Law: I will be there all weekend. I have some appointments with publishers to see a few new titles, but I think I got glimpses of most of them at Gen Con. There are one or two I know about that might not be public yet but that sound intriguing. I’m hoping to just play more games this year too – at Gen Con I was basically just going to meetings and speaking on panels all day each day.

JJ: Are you writing a ‘Players I Was Wrong About’ article this offseason? Any obvious standouts?
Keith Law: I wrote it in September, as usual.

AGirlHasNoName: Are the Cubs going to non-tender Russell tomorrow, or am I just hopefully reading the Torreyes trade tea leaves?
Keith Law: I would non-tender him, but I don’t know their plans, and I don’t think Torreyes has anything to do with the decision.

Roberto: I have a preschool daughter who enjoys Jaipur but has trouble with other games like Splendor. Are there any other games you can think of that are as simple to pick up as Jaipur?
Keith Law: Lost Cities was the first game like that I introduced to my daughter. She liked Carcassonne when she was four, at least on the app, but at that age she played it more like a puzzle than a real game (and we didn’t keep score with her).

Jack: Would a package of Sean Murphy, Dustin Fowler, and Sheldon Neuse get Syndergaard to Oakland?
Keith Law: No.

Greg: Rumor mill has the Pirates open to trading Cervelli. Do you think Elias Diaz is an every day catcher? Do you think his 2 WAR in 82 games is legit? Thanks!
Keith Law: I think Diaz is a soft regular, probably not a 4 WAR guy but very likely a 2-2.5 WAR guy.

Dr. Bob: I don’t believe that the average Republican lawmaker doesn’t believe scientists down in their hearts. I think they just don’t want to hurt current economic growth and are just trying to push the problem down the road when they will be gone.
Keith Law: Very likely. Or they take money from entities that produce lots of CO2 or methane and figure they’ll be long dead when the earth is hotter.

Harrisburg Hal: It’s time to get rid of our Henckels knife set my wife and I received as a wedding gift 17 years ago. Would you buy separate components or get another knife set? I think you’ve recommended some Victorinox and Wustof knives in the past. Still a good place to start looking? I think I’d like to pick up a couple options to get a feel for weight/material.
Keith Law: Yes, and just do selected knives. A set will give you lots of knives you won’t use.

JG: Do the Twins have any top 10 prospects on your list? Top 20?
Keith Law: I’ll just say I think their system is loaded.

TJ: Klaw, ever had anything from Zingerman’s in Ann Arbor, MI? Great sandwiches, and my wife is going crazy baking stuff out of their cookbook I bought her. Also, and Tigers prospects that we can hope to see in Detroit this season?
Keith Law: Yes, went there ten years ago, really liked it. I think you’ll see Daz, Burrows, and Manning at some point.
Keith Law: Maybe Rogers but he’s not that good a prospect.

Buck Thompsonville: do any front offices use RBI or W’s for evaluation in any capacity anymore?
Keith Law: No. Just broadcasters.

Cthomp: I know you really like Dom Smith. However after what we’ve seen, I have a hard time seeing future impact with his bat. Can you maybe help me see what you see? Sometimes it just doesn’t pan out and I wonder if your confidence in him has dropped at all.
Keith Law: Smith is 23 and has had less than a full season’s worth of major-league at bats.

Betsy: What do you see in Willy Adames moving forward? Does he stick at SS and will his hit/power continue to improve?
Keith Law: Don’t think he’s a SS. Very much think his batting average will improve.

kgbos: Based on your board game list I picked up Ticket to Ride for family Thanksgiving. All of us were playing for the first time but I won every time (small sample size) to the point others lost interest. Do we need to find another game or do I need to sit out in the near future so they can get more accustomed to the game and strategy?
Keith Law: Might depend on how you played – the 1910 expansion isn’t expensive and introduces some better route cards that may balance the game out, again depending on why you won.

Todd: Higher ceiling, Everson Pereira or Estevan Florial?
Keith Law: Probably Florial, but his flaws are bigger.

Daniel: Hi Keith, always enjoy reading your work and as a scientist, I greatly appreciate your continued push against anything anti-science.
Keith Law: With the popular media often unwilling or ill-equipped to do so, those of us with platforms have some obligation to speak out on issues where the science is clear and the opposing view is just bullshit.

Daniel: Oops! Meant to send the following question with my previous statement: as a Reds fan, should I be cautiously optimistic about the team? I think the Bell hiring (and his staff) was really well thought out and he brings a diverse set of experiences to the table.
Keith Law: I like everything I’ve heard about Bell. Pretty good offseason for managerial hirings, I think.

Trevor: You can take Beltre over Chipper, I just don’t agree with it. Does WAR factor in playoff games?
Keith Law: No, it doesn’t, nor should it since players don’t get to play in the same number of games. Remember that the question was where the players ranked AS THIRD BASEMEN. Beltre played 761 more games at third than Jones did, and was substantially better on defense. You can disagree, but you have to come correct.

JJ: If MLB expands, those 2 cities should be: ________
Keith Law: If MLB expands, they should put part of the expansion fees into building stadiums in the new markets. Portland, OR, and Austin have long been the two best answers to that question, but I’d bet neither electorate would support public funding for a stadium.

Adam Trask: Barring any major trades and given that their young talent pans out, when do you see the Padres being a contender?
Keith Law: As soon as 2020.

DH: Can Luis Robert be a 20/20 guy? Is he still 2 years away?
Keith Law: I’m telling you, this player does not exist.

Byron Buxton: Tell me how to fix me.
Keith Law: What’s broken? Buxton wasn’t healthy last year.

kbrown: The A’s aren’t at all likely to replicate 97 wins again next year, but with the other AL West teams in rebuild or hurt (LAA) could you see the A’s repeating as a WC team with 90+ wins?
Keith Law: I would bet against this.

SC: Keith– quick follow-up– Mets said they might trade one of Kelenic, Dunn or Giminez, but not two. Seems like you would rank Giminez last in that group. Would that make a Cano trade (i.e., Cano-Diaz for Bruce, Giminez and filler) more palatable to you?
Keith Law: Yes, that wouldn’t bother me. Then it becomes a question of whether the Mets are right to pursue wins in 2019 at all.

Germolene: Did Jamie Moyer even pump it up to 84?
Keith Law: Jamie Moyer was left-handed, and probably still is.

Mike: What level of prospect(s) could the M’s get in return for Hanniger?
Keith Law: I think he’s their most valuable trade asset. Everyday player with huge production and five years (I think) of control remaining. That’s where you ask for the four-prospect, two of whom are top 100 at least, sort of return

Al: Seigler and Breaux both stick at catcher? Either project as a “guy”? Thanks.
Keith Law: Seigler is a catcher, Breaux is not.

Sam: I have a son that just turned 3. I saw that you said you played Jaipur with your daughter at 4. When did you introduce games to her and what were they? (Sorry if you’ve answered this a million times)
Keith Law: At 4. She’d see us playing games at the table or on our iPods at the time and want to try them. She liked the Carcassonne app because it was a matching game to her and I think she liked the clicking sound she’d get with a correct move. Lost Cities was pretty straightforward – to play that at all, you just have to know your numbers 1 through 10, and then the adult can guide the child through the one big decision (to play a card or hold on).

Jake Lawson: Does Clint Frazier have a future in the Bronx, or would a trade is best avenue to playing time? He still has some pretty good upside, doesn’t he?
Keith Law: He has some upside, not a star, can’t see any role for him in the Bronx.

Nat: Keith, do you have advice for someone who never really had anxiety until the past couple of years? Seems to be worse the past few months and can’t see a counselor until next year either. Any tips?
Keith Law: Try some meditation – simple breathing meditations, sometimes called ‘awareness of breath’ – and talk to your PCP about whether a low dose of medication, like an SSRI, might help.

Todd: Were you high on Brien Taylor as a prospect way back in the 90s?
Keith Law: Brien Taylor is only 18 months older than I am.

Mick: Beautifully named Italian Reds infielder Leonardo Seminati appears to be a clone of Alex Liddi. Hopefully he’s in the bigs much longer.
Keith Law: As do I. Perhaps then I’ll finally get that long-awaited scouting trip to Italy.
Keith Law: Thank you all for the questions this week. I’m planning to chat again next Thursday, and then skip the following week for the winter meetings. I’m back to the phones now to work on the prospect rankings. Have a great weekend and if you are at PAX Unplugged here in Philly, please say hi if you spot me.

Keith Law: Buy yourself a dream, how’s it looking? It’s Klawchat.

Andy: What are your thoughts on a salary floor, that’s similar to the luxury tax. There is a floor but if player salaries don’t hit that floor, they get less in revenue sharing from the higher spending teams. I think the rich owners would go for it, since they hate subsidizing “teams not trying,” and it would still allow for bottoming out, owners would just make less money doing so.
Keith Law: I don’t like it, because there are often legitimate arguments for bad teams to avoid spending money on veteran players who aren’t going to be any better than internal options, just for the sake of spending that money. Yeah, the Orioles are going to be terrible this year, but should they spend $8 million on a maybe league-average veteran LF, or try to straighten out Austin Hays and give him 400 AB out there?

Arnold: The Giants selected two players in the Rule 5 draft, Drew Ferguson & Travis Bergen. Is either of them likely to ever be a useful major league piece?
Keith Law: Nope.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Pres Klaw gets sworn in 2020, what are his goals for his first 100 days?
Keith Law: Ctrl-Z.

addoeh: The Cubs didn’t re-sign Chavez, but you know I wish they had Jesse’s curve. Where can they find a pitcher like that?
Keith Law: Well, Rick, I really didn’t understand them choosing not to sign him at that price. Seemed like a great fit, he pitched extremely well, has no platoon split, Maddon liked him.

Lee D: Keith — You are the GM of Team X. You sign Bryce Harper to a 10 year/$300M contract. Which Team Xs would this be a good idea?
Keith Law: There is no team where it would truly be a bad idea. He’s very likely to exceed that AAV in on-field production.

Joe: Billy Wagner is seriously still getting HoF votes will the madness ever stop?
Keith Law: He’s better than Lee Smith and Trevor Hoffman, both of whom are in.

Mike: Keith, what’s a realistic return for the Blue Jays for Stroman. If they took back Homer Bailey’s salary, could they get one of the top 3 guys – Senzel/Greene/Trammell?
Keith Law: I don’t think the Reds are moving any of those three guys unless they should get a top of rotation starter.
Keith Law: Even then, maybe not.

Aaron G: Since the owners are treating the luxury tax like a hard cap, how long until the players finally figure out that the 6-year arbitration system artificially depresses salaries and should be changed/removed?
Keith Law: I think the union knows this, but never prioritized fighting it. I have to think they will do so next time around.

Ben: Your thoughts on the new proposal for Cuban signees no longer having to take up residence as they await MLB’s declaration of free agency? Does this require approval from the (puke) Trump administration and the xenophobic GOP first?
Keith Law: As far as I know, it doesn’t require any such approvals from the government. I think the new agreement is only good news – yes, it will shift some problems around, but ultimately this benefits players and teams.

Dave: What are your thoughts on Paul Richan? From the lists that have come out so far, he’s been as high as #5 or out of the top 30 all together.
Keith Law: I haven’t finished any individual team lists yet, but he’s not going to be top 5 even in that system.

Brett: Can I get your thoughts on InstaPots? My wife bought one and has tried numerous recipes. I think it makes terrible food and am not a fan.
Keith Law: I do not own one. I own a pressure cooker and a Dutch oven and use those where the Instant Pot would serve. But I also work at home and thus have time to cook that most working adults don’t have.

Mike: Do you ever feel like you’re at a huge disadvantage information wise? Now, it might be easier to find Trackman information, but with teams neuroscouting it would be hard for you to get that info.
Keith Law: I always worry about that, and try to get that info where I think there might be a gap in my knowledge on a player. Of course there will always be times I don’t learn that until later, as with some issues around player makeup.

Guest: Is Luzardo in the majors before September this year?
Keith Law: Yes, I expect so.

alex: Any big cooking plans for you with the upcoming holidays?
Keith Law: Don’t think so. Christmas has always been a small affair around here. I never liked those Christmas days when I was a kid and we were bundled up and shuttled off to visit family as soon as the last present was opened.

Alex K: Bellinger for Kluber (or Bauer): who hangs up first?
Keith Law: Dodgers.

Rick C: The more the offseason goes on, the more I get the sense that the Braves’ remaining moves look something like re-signing Markakis, trading for Gray, and adding a couple low to mid-tier relievers. Do you think I’m off the mark here? I think it’d be a huge mistake considering the strength of the division overall.
Keith Law: Well they made one huge move with Donaldson. I do think Anthopoulos will do something else on par with that, but it might not be until mid-January.

Sam: Dustin May a guy to break through this year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he already on my midseason top 50? I think he was, so I would say he’s already broken through.

Keith: HOF question: I see a lot of momentum for Edgar and sheffield is more or less stalled. Offensive WAR gives Sheffield a significant advantage that gets eroded by his negative defense. If Sheffield had just been a DH, he’d be close to a no brainer HOFer. How do you reconcile this?
Keith Law: I have struggled with that exact question. My ballot & explanatory column go up next week and I promise you I answer it in there.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Do you know if there are any guidelines on how fast a kid should pitch as he’s growing up? Velo is the main reason for injuries right? So should a 13 y/o kid be pushing 75? 80?
Keith Law: I don’t know of any guidelines. It’s probably a function of physical effort level and I don’t know how anyone truly measures that (yet).

Hank: You’ve made fun of the fact that the Jays (and others) view their system differently than you do. Where approximately do you place them, and what are the major differences between what you think and what they think?
Keith Law: To be clear, I’ve only made fun of the team’s own overly optimistic view of their system, and how sensitive Mark Shapiro was when I disagreed with them. I don’t have them top 5, or particularly close, but beyond that I’d prefer to wait until I have my actual rankings done.

Jeff: What were your thoughts on the Mets hiring of Jared Banner?
Keith Law: I only know Jared a little bit but have heard nothing but positive things from his colleagues in Boston.

Ron: You think Kepler will put it together this year? If he does can he be a 4-5 win player? Buxton just needs to be healthy, right?
Keith Law: I thought he was going to put it together in 2018, so I guess yes, I still do. Buxton needs to get healthy. Sano needs to get in shape. There’s a lot of upside on that team, which is one reason I don’t agree with fans who think Cleveland has the division on lockdown.

nb: Hey Keith – Happy holidays to you and your family! When do we start receiving the present of prospect evaluations and rankings n ESPN.com? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe the last full week of January. That’s a decision for my editors, but I’m already working on the phone call portion of the project.

J: Discuss my complicated emotions around the actually reasonable Wilson Ramos signing by Brodie van CAA and the implicit get over yourself to the Marlins.
Keith Law: Thought it was a very smart deal on its own merits, and much smarter than sending prospects for Realmuto, who is just marginally better than Ramos.

Rob: Trevor Cahill a good case for just using for multiple innings a couple times a week rather than as a “starter”?
Keith Law: I think he is.

Jim: Will Bubba Thompson garner top 100 consideration? Love his athleticism
Keith Law: I don’t think so, but I’m still working on it.

Chris: I saw Roma in a theater the other night and I experienced anguish and anxiety for much of it, incl the very last climb, and I dont even have issues with anxiety generally. I hear you re the surf noise. Great piece of filmmaking though.
Keith Law: I’m glad I didn’t see it in a theater for that reason, but am also glad Netflix did the wide theatrical release to give people the choice.

Rich J: Which team will sign Gritty? Which team SHOULD sign Gritty?
Keith Law: Doesn’t every team need Gritty, really?

Zac: is the 18 year old the Blue Jays took in the rule-5 a legit major league pitcher?
Keith Law: Is he right now? No. That’s a huge problem I have with the rule 5 draft today – it encourages teams to take players whose development will be stalled or even hurt by the jump to a level for which they’re not ready.
Keith Law: OK, it’s time to get serious: I am now eating Oreos.

Jackson: My pick for biggest lower level MiLB bat to rise in 2019 is Jhon Torres. Am I too optimistic?
Keith Law: He’s a very good prospect.

Foster: Is how batters fare against different arm slots tracked at all my front offices? Do you consider it to be valuable/meaningful?
Keith Law: I doubt the sample sizes would be large enough.

Dave: As a Cubs fan, I’m beyond appalled at the continued employment of Addison Russell. Melisa Reidy-Russell’s account of his abuse is sickening, and I’m especially bothered that Theo likely knew those details when he tendered him a contract. I realize baseball has had its share of bad apples from the beginning, so maybe I’m just being sanctimonious now. But Russell is my line in the sand. Either he goes, or I find another team to support. If only I could guarantee the next team will respond to such issues more appropriately.
Keith Law: I personally do not understand the team continuing to employ him at this point. If enough fans make their displeasure clear, maybe they’ll reconsider.

Brett: Does Scott Kingery make solid progress in 2019 or should we expect more of 2018?
Keith Law: I was hoping the Phillies would give him regular reps at one position, probably 2b, that he can truly play well, so that he wasn’t simultaneously trying to play a position where he had no experience/lacks the skills while also learning to hit major league pitching. I don’t know that that’s likely right now.

nelson: With teams less likely to hand out huge contracts to flawed players and teams also less likely to hand out longer term contracts to players in their 30s, how do you think this affects the future of the sport? Do you think this will lead to fundamental changes?
Keith Law: I think the union will/should push for fundamental changes like getting players to free agency sooner.

Tyler: Mo is a no doubt HOF for me because of the playoffs. However I do not have him even in the top 12 or 13 on this ballot based on regular season numbers. I struggle with how to evaluate RP and how much weight to put on playoff numbers. For example if I was starting a team I would take Oswalt over Mo. Oswalt was one of the best pitchers in the game for 10 years in a row. I do not think Oswalt is a HOFer and do think MO is, but I do think Oswalt was the better pitcher. I am glad Mo is going to get in I just have a hard time putting him in the top 10, is this me under stating his importance in the playoffs? Or is it me not valuing Closer enough in general?
Keith Law: Perhaps, and I’m only playing devil’s advocate here, you aren’t valuing Rivera’s performance relative to any other reliever over such a long period of time highly enough. Whether you believe Hoffman or Wagner was his best contemporary, Rivera was worlds better than both of them.

HOF voting: Do you make a distinction (as others have) between voting for highly credibly PED accused- like say Bonds, Clemons- and someone like Manny who was actually caught?
Keith Law: I do – and I have mentioned it before, so my view there remains the same. I won’t be consistent just for its own sake but in this case I’ve been consistent.

Mike: How many more years do the Indians have before anyone (or everyone) in the AL Central catches up?
Keith Law: like I said above, they may be the favorites but the division isn’t just theirs in 2019.

Sean: I’m almost through The Master and Margarita. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed it, but I hadn’t even heard of it before I saw it on your top book list (and I like to think I am relatively well-read). Seems to me that it’s not one that is touted much in America despite it’s clear place as a literary classic, could you speculate as to why this is?
Keith Law: It wasn’t written in English, and the anti-communist satire within the novel probably doesn’t land for American audiences.

John : Should I be terrified the Reds are going to trade Senzel and/or Trammell for Kluber?
Keith Law: Yes, I wouldn’t favor that.

Rick C: What is going on with Carter Stewart’s grievance?
Keith Law: Nobody knows.

Tyler: In regards to the salary floor, what if a team does not reach it they have to spend the difference on their minor league players salary?
Keith Law: Now that is the greatest idea I’ve ever heard.

Guest: Do you think Tulo is a worthwhile upgrade (or an upgrade at all?) over Kevin Newman / Erik Gonzalez for Pittsburgh?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Rell: What do you do with being around immediate family for the holidays that insist on bringing up political views just to have a debate with you?
Keith Law: I don’t have any immediate family who support this Administration or the current GOP in general.

Chris: There is gonna be a riot if the Yankees bring in (so called bad seed) Machado which leads to them not re-signing fan fave and great guy Didi. This is where you tell me Machado’s a clearly better player and the FO doesnt give a whit about what the fans want.
Keith Law: There won’t be a riot. Yankee fans will be thrilled if they sign Machado.

Dan: Do you ever move a book up or down your favortie novels list a year or more after you have read it? Based on a second reading or how something may have struck you after thinking on it further.
Keith Law: The latter, yes. I rarely read novels twice, but I do often find myself thinking about novels differently after some time. Zadie Smith’s White Teeth really grew on me months after I read it.

Em: Love your work, baseball and non. Non baseball though: no love for Middle Kids on the music list…didn’t like or didn’t listen?
Keith Law: Didn’t like, sorry.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Thanks for your music updates. I really agree with you that it’s been a down year for music. Will Tool save us when they finally release their album next year?
Keith Law: Never been a Tool fan.

Andy: Do you ever go back and listen to previous albums, that you may have missed? It seems like most of your songs/albums you link to are current ones. Do you still find bands/albums that you may have missed from five years ago, but just don’t link them as much?
Keith Law: I only link to current songs/albums because that’s the purpose of those posts – I do monthly playlists of new music, then year-end lists of the best albums or songs of that specific year.

Dan: Sad news from Long Beach- Seoulmate closed and is now up for sale.
Keith Law: That is a bummer – although their website says they’re hoping to reopen in a larger space. That location didn’t have much seating. The owner was a reader of mine, so I’m very much hoping to hear some good news on that front soon.

Dave: If you think Harper is a generational talent worth the zillion dollars he’s going to get, do you let the fact that you already have three good outfielders (coughNYcough) stop you?
Keith Law: No, you have the DH spot to work with.

Jack: Which prospect will be the next addition to the White Sox rotation: Dunning, Cease, or Kopech (at the start of 2020)?
Keith Law: Cease seems closest.

Cole: Is it time to write off Austin Beck?
Keith Law: Good lord, no. He’s had one full year in pro ball.

Joe: Where they any changes to Hedges swing it approach in the second half of last season that indicates his improvement bcould be sustainable? How good is he defensively, I’ve heard writers claim it slipped last season?
Keith Law: Nothing changed with his swing or approach. I don’t think he’s slipped defensively.

AGirlHasNoName: So, um, Addison Russell is just toast, right? I am glad his exes have put their own words out there, and wish them strength. But he has to be toast, right? Might as well grow an evil mustache and get sharks with lasers on their head or something, there’s no coming back from here, is there?
Keith Law: If he goes out and hits like an All-Star this year, there will be fans (mostly men) lining up to forgive him and/or call his exes liars and golddiggers. Even after he admitted Reidy’s claims of violence were true, and then she and another of his girlfriends both posted accounts of his bad behavior, there were STILL dipshit men in my mentions yesterday calling them liars, or just saying women lie all the time (not about this, they don’t). I gave the block button quite a workout.

Matt from MKE: Love your stuff, Keith! Question about the Brewers and Hiura – why would they even waste time with a temporary 1 year signing to play 2B, when their top minor leaguer plays that spot? Wouldn’t you give him the chance to succeed/fail first?
Keith Law: I would, yes.

Dan: Have you seen Minding the Gap? It may win Best Documentary and it’s fantastic. (Granted I’m biased as it’s filmed in my hometown)
Keith Law: No, I’ll watch it next month. I still feel like Won’t You Be My Neighbor? is going to win, though.

Chris: Ive tried to stop getting worked up about things like HoF, awards, etc, but in what way is it remotely fair for a player who never topped 6% to get in as an end around by a small group of cronies? Why does that avenue even exist?
Keith Law: Ask the Hall. It’s their process. I don’t mind a sort of last chance kitchen for candidates whom the voters whiffed on – Trammell already, Whitaker soon, I hope – but a committee that small, filled with voters who have personal relationships with candidates, will ALWAYS produce bad outcomes.

William T.: Keith, a lot of these “early” mock drafts starting to surface. Do you like HS Lhp Hunter Barco to be a fit for my Rangers at #8?
Keith Law: Mock drafts this early are not worth the electrons used to post them.

Adam: Steroid suspicions aside, would you support someone who chose not to vote Barry Bonds into the Hall of Fame due to his questionable domestic violence history?
Keith Law: Yes, I would. Unfortunately, we have a few players on the current ballot with such accusations (which, again, I tend to assume are true), and more already in the Hall. Incorporating that into voting would meet my personal morality but raises a question of what the Hall is actually there for. I don’t have a good answer.

Trevor: Brewers rhp prospect Zack Brown seem to be popping up on a lot of radars. Someone you like?
Keith Law: Yep, he’s a guy.

HankQQ: Liked your top 100 songs list yesterday. One band that I thought deserved a spot was Idles. If you haven’t already give Joy as an act of resistance a listen.
Keith Law: I didn’t like that album at all.

Matt: Do you consider the White Sox serious contenders for Harper or Machado?
Keith Law: Yes.

bunt cake: muncy’s floor should be solid/average mlb player with some pop and good walk rate?
Keith Law: I think his floor is below that. Platoon/bench player.

Kacey: I don’t disagree with you on Russell, but would you give him a second chance if he was truly contrite right away, it was a one time thing and he sought counseling?
Keith Law: My view is that a man who puts his hands on a woman’s neck in anger cannot be redeemed or rehabilitated. He’s a danger.

Jon: Keith, how do you feel about die hard Trump supporters reading your chats?
Keith Law: Do they? I use a lot of big words.

Adam: Higher Ceiling? Waters or Pache?
Keith Law: Pache.

Josh: Given the increased specialization of baseball roles, at what point does Hall of Fame worthiness become primarily based on “excellence relative to position/role” like some other sports? In other words, for example, Billy Wagner would be deserving while Gary Sheffield would not – despite the latter being substantially more valuable to an actual baseball team.
Keith Law: I really do not want to see the Hall start honoring the best specialists. I don’t think that’s ever been its purpose nor should it be going forward.

Tinker McSwiggins: I’ve heard of about 3% of the artists on your top 100 songs. Where do you find these artists(literally, not trolling)? Also do you have a link to your go to pie crust recipe? Thanks bro, hang ten dude.
Keith Law: I find them all over the place – there isn’t one spot. I listen to a lot of music, especially when driving or when doing mindless stuff around the house like cleaning, doing dishes, even sometimes while cooking. Pie crust recipe

Kevin: Would you include player opt-outs if you were a GM or overpay to induce the player to sign w/ your team. I am a huge White Sox fan and would be extremely giddy if they signed Harper and/or Machado, however unlikely and out of character it may be. I don’t understand giving them an opt-out after say 3 years though. That will probably be when the White Sox young players start hitting their stride and the team competes, but now you have a star player you have to pay more just to keep. On the other hand, the player could turn into a Jason Heyward where he underperforms expectations and he chooses not to opt-out.
Keith Law: Player options are bad for the team. An “opt-out” is just a euphemism – it’s a player option. If the player stinks, you’re stuck with him. If he’s good, he probably opts out.

Dom: What’s your best advice for somebody seeking a job in scouting, FO or development? Thanks!
Keith Law: Learn to code.

Bryan: Any boardgame recommendations that are good for the whole family (adults and teens) that can also be played with a 7-year or 8-year-old? [i.e., not just children’s games that older people can play with them]
Keith Law: Ticket to Ride, Splendor, maybe Carcassonne (love the game, the farm strategy can be a little abstract for young players).

Krontz: Forbes does MLB team valuations and has said some clubs have net losses in given years. Is that really possible? Aren’t the owners just using the ol’ “shell game” of making it look like a loss on the books while profits from concessions, parking, leases, etc all add up to plenty of profit in the end for MLB owners.
Keith Law: Yes, they use transfer pricing tricks (e.g., paying themselves a well below market price for something like parking, putting parking revenues in a related entity) to pull that off.

Matt: So uhh… Syria. The coming clusterfuck is gonna make Iraq look like a calm serene day at the beach isn’t it?
Keith Law: Yep. I will say that I think the Obama Administration probably mishandled Syria, out of fear that the GOP-held Congress would obstruct any serious efforts.
Keith Law: There’s probably no way I could do justice to the topic of US policy in Syria, about which I only have cursory knowledge anyway, in a chat question.

Imre: Thanks for all you do Keith! Merry Christmas to you and your family! Any suggestions for board games for our 4 yo daughter?
Keith Law: Merry Christmas to you as well. A lot of publishers are doing kids’ versions of the games I love, and some are really good, like Ticket to Ride: First Journey and My First Carcassonne.

Lee: What’s a fair extension for Mookie Betts at this point? Does he bite at 10 years and 250 million?
Keith Law: I think he’d ask for more. A player of his caliber should ask for $30MM+ in free agency.

Sean: Do you have any sense on the approach Zaidi will have this off-season. It’s been quiet so far and they need to make some moves eventually.
Keith Law: Do they? I don’t see them as contenders in 2019. Standing pat for now may be the right move.

Richard: Looking at the Yankees and Red Sox positioning themselves for years of dominance and the Rays being seemingly light years ahead in their turnaround, what can I – a lifelong Blue Jays fan and expert of mediocre baseball team watching – latch onto as a fan while their current management team attempts an AL Central – centric rebuild?
Keith Law: I don’t have a great answer for that, although I think the idea of the Jays rebuilding through the farm, which they are clearly trying to do, should be seen by fans as a positive. We can disagree over the progress of the rebuild, but they are right not to try to fake-compete in the short term.

Danny Boy: Keith, why the vitriol against Israel? Between your remonstration of Israel’s inclusion in the WBC, criticism of Solomonov’s documentary, and your pro BDS tweets, it sounds like you’ve got an Israel problem.
Keith Law: I actually praised Solomonov’s documentary, you stupid troll.

Dr. Bob: You may be concerned about falling behind because you don’t see all the data that teams are developing, but it could be worse. You could be Jim Bowden analyzing teams and trades and signings like they still happened over drinks at the hotel bar.
Keith Law: No comment.

Jon: I just love the fact that ANY man that is accused of sexual assault you just blindly believe the woman and hang said man out to dry. Typical liberal for you
Keith Law: Yes, we liberals like data, and since the data say false claims of sexual assault or domestic violence are extremely rare (as low as 3%, probably no higher than 10%), the rational conclusion is that such claims are true.

Tom C: No such thing as a bad one year contract, but does Matt Harvey have anything left?
Keith Law: I think so. Good gamble for LAA.

Jordan: Do you think Mark Vientos could get serious Top-100 consideration by mid-2019? Love his bat.
Keith Law: I love his bat too. It’s not any more, but the mets had a top ten season when October ended.

Allan: Best guess: how many starts does Corbin Burnes make this year?
Keith Law: 25.

Danny: No te gusta Coheed and Cambria?
Keith Law: No, lo siento.
Keith Law: Me gustaría mas cuando fueron llamados “Savatage.”

Brian: A new record (!!!!) – I have heard of 3 of the artists and 0 of the songs on your 2018 top 100. I am officially old. Was there ever a period in your life in which you stopped following new music?
Keith Law: Yes, around when my daughter was born. Never had the time or the mental energy.

J: Any opinion on the removal of Baby It’s Cold Outside from many radio stations Holiday play list?
Keith Law: I’m fine with removing it. If listeners find it problematic through a modern lens – which I do, since “what’s in this drink” sure as hell sounds like a reference to roofies – then why play it? Granted I never cared for the melody anyway…

Dazed and Confused: I generally trust your opinions on baseball, and agree with most of your politics. However, I think I differ with you on the severity of Russell’s punishment. While I’m ok with baseball never employing him again, however, as a society, rather than giving up on people like Russell, we need to find a way to help and rehabilitate people in his situation so that they can be contributing members of this society.
Keith Law: I haven’t really commented on what should happen to Russell outside of baseball. He can go do something else for a living. I’m just saying playing MLB is a privilege, and that wearing the uniform means you’re representing a brand and an organization that can decide they no longer want you doing so.

Ryan: Keith, We are about to embark on a long car ride. Any (cell phone or iPad) app games you can recommend for a 6 year old? Bonus points if it doesn’t require internet connectivity. Happy holidays to you and yours
Keith Law: There is also a Ticket to Ride First Journey app that’s quite good. And a 6-year-old can play Carcassonne against the easiest AI (the “maid”) and fare well.

Joshua: Regardless if the Nats resign Harper, does a trade of Eaton make some sense. The Nats could have an OF of Soto, Robles, and Taylor in RF. Although there would be a dip in offensive production, defense and speed would be added. Maybe an Eaton deal to Cleveland for one of their starters could be a starting point of discussion. Thoughts?
Keith Law: No, I wouldn’t trade Eaton unless Harper is back.
Keith Law: The Nats are close to a complete team right now. Trading Eaton and playing Taylor makes them worse.

Matt: Do you know of any card games that you can play solo that’s not like Solitaire?
Keith Law: There’s one called Friday, a physical game and an app, that’s very difficult. Also one called Onirim that I’ve only played as an app and enjoy but find easier to defeat.

Moe Mentum: Based on performance alone, is Rafael Palmeiro worthy of Hall of Fame enshrinement? If so, will it happen in your lifetime?
Keith Law: He was always just on the wrong side of the line for me.

Aaron G: Ok now my stupid question of the day: if the Yankees decide on Machado instead of Harper, can the Yankees reasonably expect to get another SP1 or 2 via trade using Andujar as a centerpiece?
Keith Law: Not with him as a centerpiece. Maybe as part of a bigger deal.
Keith Law: They did just use their best prospect to get Paxton, who is like a #1 for 2/3 of a season.

Jimmy the Pratt: Are the Mets offficially a contender?
Keith Law: Is there an official designation system I wasn’t aware of? Like how Parmigiano-Reggiano has to come from one of five Italian provinces to bear that name?

Joe: Angels get harvey and Cahill for $20 mil + incentives….decent work by billy?
Keith Law: Agreed.

Josh: I just left a comment on your music post, but I didn’t notice there’s a Klawchat today, so I’m here to needle you a bit in somewhat real-time. Isn’t dinging Ghost for their satanic trappings like complaining back in the day about Griffey’s backwards hat? What does it matter as long as it rocks? And why can’t tongue-in-cheek homages to Satan be taken seriously in a genre that encourages over-the-top thematic elements?
Keith Law: I find that stuff incredibly childish. I’d compare it more to a 12-year-old cursing left and right because he thinks it makes him sound more like an adult.

John: Currently eating at Shake Shack for the first time as I type this. It’s definitely good, but doesn’t quite meet the hype, same as In n Out, IMO. Rank those 2 with 5 Guys?
Keith Law: Shake Shack > In-n-Out > 5 Guys. (I no longer eat beef, but did until about two years ago, and have had burgers at all 3.) Shake Shack uses way better inputs.

Ozzie Ozzie Albies Free: Has Klentak shown to be a good GM so far in your opinion? I have mixed feelings so far.
Keith Law: Overall, yes. But their amateur draft results, notably in the first round, have been poor, and that has to be addressed at some point.

Brian: You stated above the Giants should possibly just stand pat. So would the strategy be just fill their remaining holes with one year fliers and sell what you can at the deadline?
Keith Law: Right. And play internal options where available, although I know there aren’t many.

Joe: Most impactful call up for the angels in 2019? Canning, Suarez, adell, rengifo, someone else?
Keith Law: Not Adell although he’s their best prospect. Canning seems like a good bet.

Jackie: Joe Kelly had a mediocre regular season in 2018, followed by a terrific post-season. The Dodgers just made a massive overpay. Why does it seem like teams always overvalue the three weeks in October vs. a career’s worth of middling results?
Keith Law: That one really surprised me. Didn’t foresee the Dodgers overpaying like that for a reliever.

John: My wifes work has us overseas. Every country we have lived in has ESPN+ (used to be insider) blocked. Why is that? What content right issues don’t allow me to use ESPN+ except for out two week home leave every year?
Keith Law: You aren’t the only person to report this but unfortunately I don’t know the answer. I’m sorry.

JR: Do you think the Mets viewed Dunn and Kelenic as their top two prospects and it was the price they had to pay to get Cano/Diaz, or did they view them differently than the rest of the industry which is why they were willing to trade them?
Keith Law: I believe those were their top two prospects, and that the industry as a whole viewed them the same (consensus, of course, not every person will agree), but BVW didn’t.

J5: Tony Gonsolin a legit sp prospect?
Keith Law: I’ve heard very good reliever but have not seen.
Keith Law: I may have that wrong, actually … going off memory there but now I’m doubting myself. I know I have very good notes either way.
Keith Law: OK, I need to wrap this up with a busy afternoon ahead. Thank you all so much for reading, today and all year long. I’ll still be writing as needed through the holidays but won’t chat again until January 3rd. Have a safe and happy holiday, and please watch yourselves on the roads, especially on New Year’s Eve. We will chat again in the new year.

Keith Law: I wish the world was flat like the old days. Klawchat.

Seth: Andrew Vaughn likely to be the first 1b only prospect to be drafted in the top 5 in a long time? If so, is it a reflection on his skills or a weaker draft class?
Keith Law: Possible, not likely. A reflection on the draft class either way.

Nick: Doesn’t it kind of feel like the Cubs are spiraling downwards towards mediocrity ?
Keith Law: No.

J: Trying to sift through the numerous Padres’ pitching prospects. Do you see Paddack, Quantrill, or Allen making any dent in 2019? Is Quantrill just an org guy at this point, or room for redemption?
Keith Law: Paddack for sure. The others possibly. Q is more than an org guy, but he’s also regressed a good bit since the first summer.

J: Framber Valdez. Good enough to start the season in Astros’ rotation?
Keith Law: I’d say probably not, since they’re contenders.

Trevor: Are you in favor of expansion and would it help solve the slow free agent market?
Keith Law: Yes, and probably not.

Ted: Klaw,

What’s your opinion on how we should view movies, music, etc. that was made during times when certain words or actions were, for lack of a better term, more “acceptable”? I was thinking about your recent comments about the Ten Years After song this past weekend when “Money for Nothing” came on the radio, which also infamously includes a homophobic slur. Mark Knopfler has always claimed he got the lyrics from a time he was in a New York appliance store and overheard a delivery worker making comments about a video on MTV (which is also why the characters in the video are dressed that way), and thus is taking poetic license. Of course, no one in their right mind would write those lyrics today. But it seems that if you view a lot of art made 30 or 50 or 200 years ago through the prism of current societal norms, much of it will appear racist, homophobic and misogynist. After all, it wasn’t that long ago when people would commonly say “that’s gay” to mean they thought something was stupid.
Keith Law: I think understanding the context of the objectionable language or ideas is important. For example, in that song, Knopfler is mocking the speaker (who is trying to mock musicians like Knopfler), for his overall attitude and for assuming that a singer with one earring is gay. I hate the word, but have no objection to art that repeats the word in a manner that denigrates someone using it. Compare that to the Scarlet Pimpernel, a novel I really enjoyed as a reader, but one that uses a particularly bad anti-Semitic stereotype for a central character. It’s a blast to read, but when it came up as a possible book choice in my daughter’s curriculum this year, I asked the teacher to consider removing it.

Joe: What’s your opinion of the Mariners’ Julio Rodriguez? Is he getting any consideration for your top 100 or is it too soon? Do you think he has superstar potential?
Keith Law: Nowhere close to top 100 yet.

Mo: What happened to Shane Baz last year? Has his stock dropped dramatically?
Keith Law: No. Did something happen? I can’t even think of why you’d ask about his stock dropping.

Lance: Do you think Kyle Wright will throw significant innings for the Braves this season? It’s hard to project anything for them with the glut of high-upside SP prospects they possess.
Keith Law: As you said, it’s hard to project innings totals for their arms. I would guess, based on very little but my own outside sense, that he doesn’t throw much for them unless they suffer multiple injuries or trade at least two guys ahead of him in the queue.

Lonnie: Javier Baez repeating his 2018 season – buying or selling?
Keith Law: Buying. You didn’t say when; I am buying that he can have that season again.

Yong: What is your read on Adalberto Mondesi? Do you think he’s close to the player he was in the second half last year, or was that an abberation?
Keith Law: I think that’s an aberration, boosted by the juiced MLB ball.

waks: sorry, long q. so i’m a labor advocate (and union councilor, to boot), and i’ve long thought about the power that the MLBPA has, while recognizing that it’s done a fair amount short-sighted things. One of the things i can’t stop thinking about however, is how bizarre it is that average fans are likely to side with billionaire owners over “greedy” millionaire players (despite the fact that people come to see those guys play, not take a tour of the facility). How can the MLBPA combat this? Is it even worth combating it?
Keith Law: They’ve never taken it seriously enough, going back to when I was a kid. I do think it’s worth combating it, and that it would help if the PA would align itself with unions in general – something they’ve eschewed in the past, with players crossing picket lines for other unions.

Dana: If you’re the Yankees, are you comfortable going into Spring Training with Luke Voit and Greg Bird as 1B options?
Keith Law: No.

Rodney: Is there any chance Richard Urena becomes an everyday player? Age and scouting the stat line make it seem like a possibility, but there are plenty of red flags.
Keith Law: Very unlikely.

Fred: Is Kyle Lewis regaining top 100 status simply a matter of putting together a healthy, productive season, or has he fallen further than that?
Keith Law: Not being flippant, but let’s see a healthy, productive season, and then discuss it. We have no idea at this point what such a season would even look like for him.

Ron: HI Keith- The Cruz signing a decent deal? Get the bat if there is something left and maybe an influence on Sano etc? Money wasn’t bad and maybe has a year left in the tank? Your thoughts? Thanks!
Keith Law: Yep, very good deal. Twins are quietly building a legitimate threat to Cleveland.

Eric H.: Daniel Norris has been a mix of unhealthy and ineffective since joining the Tigers. Any realistic chance he regains his form?
Keith Law: I think it’s all about health and velocity, and those two are probably connected. With a plus FB, he’s a GUY. With a slightly below-average FB, he’s more like a middle reliever or maybe a long man.

Jim L: Why didn’t Trump ask Mexico for ONLY $5 billion to build the wall?
Keith Law: Now Mexico is going to pay for it via tariffs. Or something. Is the swamp drained yet?

Moe Mentum: Any rational explanation for Harold Baines beating Edgar Martinez to Cooperstown?
Keith Law: Do you consider corruption a rational explanation? As they say in White Christmas, it’s not good, but it’s a reason.

Rhys: HNY Keith. Do you see Daniel Murphy playing more than 100 games this season at 1B and if so, might that mean the Rockies are betting on Brendan Rodgers seizing the 2B job? What are realistic projections for each if so?
Keith Law: I don’t get that signing at all. Murphy at 1b is barely worth the roster spot, and he can’t play 2b any more. To give him that kind of guaranteed money seemed like extremely wishful thinking.

Jack SF: HNY Keith! Is the Brantley acquisition a foreshadowing of Tucker’s exit from Houston? Traded for Realmuto? Is there Yelich potential there with Tucker in Miami?
Keith Law: I like Tucker but don’t think this means Tucker is getting traded.

Sweeney: At what point do strikeouts become so much of a problem that teams begin preaching about making contact and using the whole field over hitting the ball in the air to the pull side? When teams are averaging 12 ks per game? 15? 17?
Keith Law: Some teams are already doing that, but we haven’t reached an inflection point where the contact-oriented approach is more valuable.

Henry: Hi Keith, any thoughts on Jeff Passan joining ESPN. Seems like a nice addition. Keep up the great work!
Keith Law: I’m thrilled. Jeff is great at his job and I’ve been friends with him for a long time now. He also knows his KC barbecue.

Moe Mentum: What non-academic advice would you give college freshmen, in order to maximize their experience while in school?
Keith Law: This might be more like academic advice but if I could do it over again, I’d focus on taking classes on things I loved, or was truly interested in, rather than trying to figure out what classes or major would be the most valuable. The idea that you should enjoy your social life and hate your academic life is just dumb. (Not that my alma mater had a great social life, or that I was anywhere ready to enjoy one if it did.)

Chris: Do you like eating at restaurants or cooking more?
Keith Law: Eating out. Then I don’t have to clean. It gets expensive, though.

Mark: What chance do you think Donaldson has of posting at least 5 WAR this year?
Keith Law: I’d bet the under, but the odds are not zero.

Ryan: keith, huge braves fan, but wondering why they havn’t done more, price just to high for AA?
Keith Law: It’s January 3rd. Lots of offseason left.

Nick: What do you make of reports like the White Sox won’t go over 7 years for Harper/Machado? Is that just posturing to control the price?
Keith Law: I do not believe those reports.

BeefLoaf: Can you please rank Rick Hahn 1-30 (1 being the best) out of current MLB GM’s
Keith Law: I have never ranked GMs and I’m never going to do so.

Vinny : Are the Padres actually going to make a big trade this year?
Keith Law: Why should they unless it’s a good one? They’re going to be good, maybe as soon as 2020. Do you want them to trade Turner and Ross for Wil Myers and stuff again?

Ron: Fantasy baseball question – who has the best 2019 season out of beiber, toussaint, kikuchi, or Cahill?
Keith Law: No idea – I haven’t played fantasy baseball in almost 20 years now.

Juwan: If you were the GM of the Nats, would you prioritize bringing Harper back, or focus on a Rendon extension?
Keith Law: Love Harper but I think extending Rendon and using any remaining cash this winter to upgrade 2b and the back of the rotation would be the better move to contend in 2019.

Matt: So how does the shutdown end? The Dems can’t cave because if they do, the GOP will always resort to shutting down the government until they get what they want. On the other hand, Trump is a 4 year old child with narcissistic personality disorder. He doesn’t have the mental capacity to “take a loss” even if it’s for the good the country.
Keith Law: I have wondered this myself – if the GOP would eventually rebel against Trump enough to reopen the government, for the good of the people who actually voted for them.

Sheng: Does Harper have the higher upside while Machado the higher floor? Would it make sense for a team to offer a 2 year deal worth 100m? And would either think of accepting such an offer?
Keith Law: Machado has the higher floor; I don’t know that I agree either has a clearly higher upside; and I can’t imagine either player accepting an offer that short when they’re likely to get 8+ years and could end up at 10/$300MM.

Juwan: Are you still as high on Victor Robles as you once were? Still think the McCutchen comp fits?
Keith Law: Yes, maybe yes, could be more defense and a shade less power.

Michael: Why did you make a tweet slamming clickbait rumors/sources, then like a tweet a few hours later claiming that Harper is going to sign with the Cubs, and then block people who called you out for the hypocrisy?
Keith Law: Because that’s not hypocrisy, a word that people like to use on twitter without knowing what it means (or what the Like function is). And the tweet in question, from my pal Brett over at Bleacher Nation, did not claim Harper was going to sign with the Cubs or anything close to it, so the single person I blocked was, to use the technical term, utterly full of shit, as are you.

Steve: Belt for Conforto, who says no?
Keith Law: The Mets should.

Jim: Thanks for the chats. Would Verdugo, Maeda and a bullpen arm be a fair return for Kluber?
Keith Law: No.

James : aside from Vlad Jr., who’s the one prospect you think will come up and have a strong 2019 year?
Keith Law: Robles. Eloy. Whitley. I could see Tatis Jr spending half the year in the majors and producing.

Dan: Curious on your thoughts of JP Crawford as a hitter. Think the move to SEA might help him to concentrate on hitting gap to gap, instead of the “long ball” mentality? Thank you and happy 2019!
Keith Law: I think it’s more about him than the ballpark – he has to accept the type of hitter he is, not try to hit for power, and frankly to be more aggressive in all aspects of the game: ambushing good pitches to hit when he’s ahead, running out key groundballs, getting after balls in the field. He has superstar ability but for reasons I don’t understand his visible effort level was not there last year.

Justin R: When we can expect your 2019 prospects columns to hit?
Keith Law: The week of January 28th. I guess I should start writing those.

Justin R: Just bought the Smart Baseball audiobook…did I make the right call or should I have gone dead tree?
Keith Law: I’m just happy you’re reading it in any format.

Thomas: Can we expect book #2 any time soon?
Keith Law: April 2020.

James: Hey Keith. Great HOF ballot, awesome to see Andruw get your vote. Who else would you have included if allowed unlimited votes?
Keith Law: I listed those in the column on my ballot.

Jeff: Keith – It seems the Dodgers involvement in additional trades is tied, at least in some way, to Harper’s decision. Do you agree? If so, are there any smaller moves you see a positives to help them finally get over the hump?
Keith Law: I do not agree – I don’t know for sure that they’re on him.

Rell: Do you ever gamble on baseball
Keith Law: No.

Kevin: Do you see anything with Soroka’s delivery that would suggest long term shoulder issues?
Keith Law: I don’t love it, the low slot/arm path seems to put a little stress on the shoulder, but 1) I don’t think it’s a huge red flag and 2) some guys have bad deliveries and stay healthy anyway, Chris Sale being the most obvious example.

Steeeeve: Why was Harper’s defense so bad last year?
Keith Law: Mike Petriello at MLB did a great piece where he looked at all of Harper’s key ‘plays not made.’ I got the sense this was a deliberate move by Harper to not sacrifice his body for defense as much as he had in previous years, perhaps (I’m inferring here) to ensure he stayed healthy all year for free agency. I don’t think he was actually a worse defender by skill.

Mo: Re: Baz, I was basing it on his poor results in the second half, being shipped to Tampa as a PTBNL, and him being excluded from the Rays top 10 on BA
Keith Law: Yeah, still not seeing it. He only made 12 starts, all in short-season, and his best outings came in his second half. Being traded isn’t a marker against a player. I don’t write for BA and can’t explain anything about their lists.

Larry: Who has more helium potential- Vientos or Mauricio?
Keith Law: Mauricio has the higher ceiling, Vientos might do the most this year to improve fans’ awareness/perception of him.

Anthony: You ever watch Silence of the Lambs? Thoughts if you have?
Keith Law: Nope, nor do I plan to.

TP: What is the rationale behind having a different ball in MLB and MiLB? How does that impact player evaluations?
Keith Law: There is no rationale – MLB doesn’t even want to admit there is a difference – and IMO it screws up attempts to grade power.

Andrew: Thoughts on Bobby Abreu as a HoF candidate when he appears on the ballot with Jeter?
Keith Law: He’ll be below the line for me.

Concerned Seattle Fan: Is most of Jarred Kelenic value tied into his defensive development? His hit tool seems to be intact but can he become a 25-25 type player?
Keith Law: No, and yes.

Kretin: Is Chris Rodriguez a sleeper prospect this year if healthy?
Keith Law: He was top 100 for me before he got hurt so I don’t think he could be a true ‘sleeper’ this soon.

Fred: Who do you prefer between Anthony Kay and Grant Holmes?
Keith Law: Anthony Kay.

Sean : Favorite movie last year?
Keith Law: Burning. My top ten, as of 12/31, is here.

Kyle: What does Braxton Garrett need to do in your mind to have a “good” year?
Keith Law: Just be healthy.

Matt: Is Kelenic now the Marineers best prospect? Do you think he can hit 25-30 homers in safeco?
Keith Law: It’s probably Sheffield, then Kelenic and Dunn.

JD: Does Charterstone work well as a two-player game?
Keith Law: Yes. You can also use “automa” as neutral players if you want to keep it from becoming too simple for the two of you to rack up goods/points.

don’t wear pearls: HOF induction is the game’s highest honor. If stealing numbers is stealing money, nobody stole more than Bonds and Clemens on their respective sides of the ball.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t know how you steal numbers, nor do I see how this somehow equates to stealing money. If you figure out who stole i, let me know, because for years I’ve been wondering if I just imagined it.

Amy: $400mil to Harper or spread around to Pollack, Kimbrell, Keuchel and more?
Keith Law: Depends on the team, but the latter (excluding Kimbrel, who looks like a time bomb to me) makes more sense.

Luis Rengifo: How do you view my breakout season last year? Has my prospect status risen?
Keith Law: A prospect now, maybe a utility guy, but a big rise from the time of the trade.

Zirinsky: Tulo signing: assuming the Yanks are quick to dump him if he can’t play/isn’t healthy, it’s a decent move right?
Keith Law: Eh. Lot of people seem to be assuming he’ll either be fine, or they’ll just cut him in March. One, I don’t buy that he’ll be fine after almost two years of not playing due to injury, a long history of injury issues before that, and declining defensive skill. Two, I don’t believe they’ll just cut him – more likely he pulls an Alomar and just quits mid-game in March – since he’s a respected veteran and they’ll love his clubhouse presence yata yata. And three, having him precludes bringing in another option for the same role as SS fill-in until Didi returns (or 2B fill-in with Gleyber at SS). It is a gamble, with some risk and some small reward.

Paella Pete: Seems fair to say that you were more excited about the prospect of Chaim Bloom becoming Mets GM than any of the other options… What do you think so far of the job BVW has done?
Keith Law: Bloom was the best choice, but they picked the guy who promised he could contend in 2019. So far BVW has traded the team’s top two prospects for insufficient return, overpaid for a reliever (with a DV history), and signed a catcher to a good deal.

Rhys: If you’re a Phils fan, should you be rooting for Middleton and Co. to spend stupid money on Machado over Harper? I get that Machado plays IF, (likely 3B with the Phils) makes consistent hard contact, but I get the feeling the long term effect is better with Harper on this team. Thoughts?
Keith Law: You should be happy with either guy – the team will be better, likely a contender, if they land either one. The fear should be that they land neither despite having the resources to sign one.

JD: Is Wander Franco the Next Huge Thing, or just the buzziest guy at the moment?
Keith Law: He’s a potential star. I wrote in August that he looks like the next teenaged big leaguer.

Johnny LaRue: Where would you place a new franchise outside of the U.S. mainland, were it up to you?
Keith Law: I don’t think such an option exists. As much as I’d love to see a team in Havana, there really isn’t a market right now in Latin America that has the population, the disposable income, enough security for players, and the proximity to the US to work.
Keith Law: San Juan would be the best bet, IMO, but the island’s economy is not in good shape.

Mark: Do you think Miguel Andujar sticks at third?
Keith Law: I think he can work his way to average in time, but I doubt the Yankees give him that much rope.

Anthony: Does Shed Long profile as a regular? What should the Reds do with Gennett, either now or after the season?
Keith Law: He doesn’t. Minus defender at 2b.

Johnny (Woburn): Hey Keith, Happy New Year! Do you see the Red Sox making any significant moves ahead of the season? Also, what kind of player do you see Dalbec becoming? Thanks!
Keith Law: No idea what moves they might be planning. Dalbec has made himself a plus defender and it’s huge raw power, but I don’t think we’ve ever seen a player strike out this often at his age and then become a regular in the majors.

Z: I got in an argument with a family member, curious to hear your thoughts. Do you view someone that is transgender as someone with a mental illness/disorder (gender dysphoria)?
Keith Law: The American Psychiatric Association’s position on this is ‘no.’ Gender dysphoria refers to the emotional distress resulting from the incongruence of one’s perceived gender and one’s biological sex, not from the difference itself. (And, this should be obvious, I also do not view having a mental illness or disorder as a failing any more than I’d view having a physical illness or disorder as one.)

Greg: Worse HoF vote- Harold Baines or Def Leppard? I feel like Leppard at least had a higher peak.
Keith Law: Yeah, plus the RnR Hall has always had a populist bent.

Matt: Is that guy that made the comments about Sosa gonna be held accountable by the Hall of Fame? (Lose his vote)
Keith Law: I doubt it.

Biff: Any recent Philly dining adventures you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I’ve been planning to do a list of my favorites this month since I’ve been here a while. Cheu in Fishtown was tremendous. Also had a great if pricey meal at Fork last weekend.

Patrick: Is it the responsibility of the Tweeter to keep in mind that some readers will be too lazy/biased/clueless to understand sarcasm, or should we just ignore those folks and carry on?
Keith Law: I have enough followers that no matter how I word something, there will be at least a few people who misinterpret it, inadvertently or deliberately.

John o: Your thoughts on the Orioles and Elias staff so far? Hyde?
Keith Law: So far, very good.

Adam: “Then I could travel just by folding a map.” Happy New Year, Keith! If the Phillies don’t land Harper or Machado, how do they salvage the offseason? Do they hold tight and wait for the trade deadline or next year when someone like Arenado is available, or are there other moves to make?
Keith Law: They could follow Amy’s suggestion above of Pollock & Keuchel.

John: I am a loyal Democrat and I don’t like Elizabeth Warren. I think she unlikable for a number of reasons—all of them unrelated to her sex. I’d also point out that most politicians are unlikable for various and legitimate reasons. You believe that any opinion contrary to yours must be linked to some bias of sex or race. Your ID politics keeps you from fully understanding people or the world around you.
Keith Law: I do not believe any such thing. I do believe that the “unlikable” tag applies to women in positions of power far more often than it does to men, and my belief is based on actual research, as opposed to yours.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Recently got into cooking as I moved into a place with my girlfriend. Got the Anova sous vide you rec, food processor, few books, etc. Any go-to meals that you family loves? Preferably something not remarkably hard.
Keith Law: The sous vide chicken thighs on serious eats are a huge hit here.

Arty23: Do you think the Miller deal was a reasonable gamble for the Cardinals or an overpay?
Keith Law: Good gamble for them.

JR: you have about 6 weeks to get in the best shape of your life before spring training starts. Kidding aside, how much are you praying Bartolo signs this winter so there is still one MLBer older than you?
Keith Law: He’s fun. I definitely want him in MLB as long as he can hack it.

waks: Follow-up to the labor union thing. I think you’re absolutely right re: PA aligning publicly with other unions to show power of organized labor. I think movie actors ought to as well – and some have, like John Goodman stumping against Right to Work laws in Missouri this past summer. If unionized athletes and entertainers would take more of a vocal role, it would go a long way towards winning a PR war.
And hey, the MLBPA should want the piano tuners to argue against the MLB luxury tax.
Keith Law: The MLBPA – I think this is true of the NFL too – has long positioned itself as a union apart from others, and it’s easy to see why since they are arguing over a different magnitude of pay than just about every other union. The principles at stake are the same, however, and they’ve relinquished the most obvious source of public support for their efforts as a result.

JD: Kristian Robinson in Dbacks system – anyone being hyped more right now from someone that was not close to top 100 last year?
Keith Law: Wasn’t he my sleeper for them last year? He’s a guy for sure. I love Chisholm, who’s almost certainly going to be on my top 100, but I know scouts who think Robinson will be better.

Erik: Is Black Panther still in the top 10 of English language films for you in 2018 (said it in your review)
Keith Law: It is 14th right now, but four films ahead of it are not in English, so yes.

RSF: Do you worry about the plastic bags used for sous vide?
Keith Law: No because there is no reason to.

James: Any concerns that Tatis Jr makes it to the majors and is limited by contact problems a la Moncada?
Keith Law: No. Different players, different swings.

Chris B.: Chargers were dropped against Reuben Foster, who was roundly demonized two months ago based on accusations. I’m not sure if you commented on Foster, but I know you typically do not wait for the justice process to play out before castigating those accused of domestic violence. Does Foster’s case (or others where the accuser is lying) give you any pause?
Keith Law: I don’t know who that is, but I know cases where the accuser is lying – and, by the way, charges being dropped don’t mean the accuser lied – are quite rare. You are guilty of base rate neglect here.

Buck: Does David Dahl still have the upside he appeared to have as a prospect? Possible All Star if he can just stay healthy?
Keith Law: Yes.

Bob: Aledyms Diaz a cheaper Marwin for Houston?
Keith Law: Cheaper but not as good.

Archie: Would raising the strike zone and going back to a “normal” ball start to get us back to where balls are being put into play, but not always ending up in the seats when they are?
Keith Law: I have some hope it would.

Cash: Who is the nicest mlb player you have ever met?
Keith Law: Tough call – I’ve liked most of the players I’ve interacted with over the years. Archie Bradley comes to mind though. He certainly was the most enthusiastic I’ve ever met.

AZ: Favorite restaurant in Scottsdale?
Keith Law: FnB.

Rich: Is bo bichette a 2b long term?
Keith Law: That is my guess.

Bob: Are you ready to place some NFL playoff parlays at Stanley’s? I’m happy to buy you a beer and show you the ropes (on how to donate your money to the state of DE).
Keith Law: Are they taking bets there now too? good lord.
Keith Law: I don’t gamble, BTW, and I get the sense you don’t either.

Vinny : How do you feel about David Robertson to the Phillies?
Keith Law: Sure.

Adam: Could Acuna be the 2nd best player in MLB this year?
Keith Law: I’ll say that’s unlikely.

Grant: Do you think Joe Ross can be healthy enough to start?
Keith Law: I think he can be very good if healthy, but I know little more about players’ health than the public does (and if I know anything more I usually can’t share it).

Alex: Why do you think the Yankees are spending only 29% of their overall revenue on their roster, the lowest in baseball? Hal clearly wants to drive in more profit, right?
Keith Law: They’re treating the luxury tax threshold like a hard cap, which does what the league wants it to do but kills the union. I’m not disappointed, because I don’t want to see the Yankees simply field a $300 million team, but the idea of team owners pocketing all that cash doesn’t sit well with me either since the players are the product.

Chris: Can Evan White be the starting 1b for the mariners in 2019?
Keith Law: In 2020, yes.

Ryan: I believe you said you started reading Harry Potter to you hold at age 7. I’d like to do he same, do you feel that was a good age for that?
Keith Law: To my daughter? Yes, and yes, it was.

Amy: Random US city that surprised you as a fun travel destination?
Keith Law: Omaha was great for food and I found a cool board game cafe. Louisville is probably my favorite mid-sized city for food + drink + stuff to do.

Jack: Is it possible that the Mets wanted to move on from Kelenic due to non-baseball issues that you either wouldn’t know about or aren’t willing to share?
Keith Law: No. That’s kind of a bullshit question.

JP: Is legalized gambling good, bad, or neutral for MLB?
Keith Law: Gambling is bad for society in general, but it’s going to happen regardless, so it’s better to have it legal and somewhat regulated (and taxed!) than the alternative.

Amy: Have you ever done Cabo food recs?
Keith Law: I’ve never been to Mexico.

waks: hey john who’s a loyal democrat, lemme guess, you’re a middle-aged white guy
Keith Law: Anyone catch that GOP strategist who tweeted about her 87-year-old dad who wouldn’t vote for Elizabeth Warren in 2020? That’s some real valuable advice for Democrats: definitely tailor your candidate to the portion of the electorate with serious misogyny issues and a 50/50 shot of dying before the election.

Rob: Bought sous vide off your rec and I love it. Now looking into espresso, and I read some of your old posts. Any entry rec that won’t put me over $300?
Keith Law: Gaggia has some low-end models in the $220 range that are okay, not quite real espresso but closer than anything else in the price range.

KC: Do you see Gohara having a rebound year?
Keith Law: If healthy, he has real starter stuff and/or huge bullpen upside.

Jeff: Have you gotten past level 12 playing The Mind?
Keith Law: Nope. BTW, his Kennerspiel-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is now out in the US, and it’s really fun, nowhere near as complicated as the title or the award would imply. It’s a simple push-your-luck game where you draw chips from your bag, but as the game progresses you get to add better chips to improve your odds.

Alec : Would you vote for Nikki Haley in a general election?
Keith Law: No, because of her policy positions and associations with Trump.

Tobias: Did Jack Flaherty just have his best season? The guy was a blast to watch, but it felt like the numbers were a little ahead of the stuff. Is he more of a #3 than a #1?
Keith Law: I think he can pitch like that for a while due to his plus-plus command.

JP: Is Durbin Feltman a potential high-leverage reliever in 2019?
Keith Law: Yes.

DC Deac: Read your HOF article and agree completely. I am a fan of WAR and appreciate it but as a writer do you ever consider not leaning on WAR as much because of your audience? I certainly don’t think it should be an end all be all (and I know you don’t) but do you ever worry readers will take that away from an article like that?
Keith Law: It’s a good starting point but you seem to understand my position on it perfectly. What I have found is that if I mention WAR there will be readers who focus on nothing else.

Kool Karl: Have you seen Holmes and Watson or intend to see it? I saw it over the holidays and thought it was a great film with some clever political overtones. I would love to get your opinion.
Keith Law: God no.

Bench : Griffin Canning? ace? Or potential Andrew Miller-ish type guy
Keith Law: If healthy, #2 starter. Strange that everyone was ready to flunk him on draft day but he’s been totally healthy in pro ball for 19 months.

mike sixel: Will Rooker cut his strikeouts enough to be a good MLB player someday? What position do you think he might play, if so? thanks.
Keith Law: 1B most likely, and yes. I think average regular.

Ben: Would you have voted for Edmonds if he were still on the ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Hiura will be a consistent 20+ homer guy in the majors? There has been a pattern of blue chip prospects with elite hitting tools hitting for increased power once they reach the majors (likely attributed to the ball); e.g., Gleyber Torres, Lindor, Betts, etc.
Keith Law: With the current ball, sure. With a regular ball, I would say no.

Dan: Does Jeter Downs strike you as the kind of hitter that LA can convert into the next version of Turner/Muncy/C. Taylor? Possible 2B option for 2020? Thanks!
Keith Law: I have heard nothing but praise for the hit tool and the makeup. He’s definitely a 2b in the long run, not sure if he has that weird power upside you’re talking about, even with the LAD launch angle obsession.

Mike : My biggest worry about Elizabeth Warren as a Democrat isn’t even Elizabeth Warren, it’s that she’ll give Trump an easy target with which to play to his low info voting base and take advantage of the way the electoral college is stacked against high info areas in the first place.
Keith Law: That would be my worry as well, but at the same time, I’d rather see all of the interested, qualified candidates enter the race, and maybe then sort them out.

Andrew: Higher % between Rivera or Jeter for the HoF?
Keith Law: I think both get 99%, with a few omissions.

Chris P: Have you seen A Private War? I thought it was excellent and Pike really stood out in her role…but I feel like nobody knows about it.
Keith Law: Yes, loved it, she deserves a nomination. It is in my top 20. Review here.

Brian: Gavin Lux and Nolan Jones, likely top 100 guys?
Keith Law: Yes, definitely.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all for the questions and for reading. I’ll try to keep these going all month, although it’s possible I’ll have to skip one while working on the prospect rankings. More details on the new book coming soon. Take care.

My latest game review for Paste looks at the deduction game Cryptid, where three to five players try to identify the location of the Creature by deducing the other players’ clues while trying to hide their own. It’s excellent.

Keith Law: It’s half past four and I’m shifting gears. Klawchat.

Bmosc: Keith, love the chats and content on the site. I always enjoy your levelheaded and logical takes on baseball and other issues. As a Yankee fan, who do you think would present more value, Harper or Machado, and how disappointed should I be that it seems Hal is more intent on pocketing the ridiculous revenue than he is on closing the gap b/w the Yanks and other contenders?
Keith Law: Either would be a big help – and yes, you should be frustrated. All owners have the money to improve, but the consensus among owners is that they should pocket more of the profits rather than passing it along to labor. Personally, I think Machado is a better fit for the Yanks, but if they signed Harper they’d make it work.

TE: With all the talk of Kyler Murray and the NFL draft, what does this mean for the A’s? Does he have to break his contract? Would the A’s get compensation? It seems like a pretty raw deal for them, given that Boras likely assured the team he would sign and play baseball exclusively (otherwise they wouldn’t have drafted him).
Keith Law: Right now it means nothing at all. He’s only declared for the NFL draft, which has no impact on the A’s or his baseball contract. It only starts to matter if he doesn’t show up for spring training/the season, or leaves the team at some point. He could owe the A’s the entire bonus, and no, they’d get no compensation. I suppose he’d make a lot more money in the short term, but there is no amount of money you could offer me that would make me consider risking traumatic brain injuries by playing football.

Ron: Astudillo have a roster spot this spring? Maybe should have one for being able to help out at a couple positions? Is the bat real? Thanks!
Keith Law: He can do enough with the bat that he should be on the roster. I don’t think he’s a regular, if that’s what you’re asking.

PA Prospects: You going to see Chris Newell play at any point this season? Any other SE PA prospects to look at?
Keith Law: Yep, I’ll see him and the younger Siani brother. Both are about 40-45 minutes from me.

dave from boston: Do you see the Redsox using Chris Sale once every five or six of his starts as an opener, pitching an inning or two only, in order to save wear and tear on him? Would you ever recommend something like this?
Keith Law: Not really sure that would do anything to help.

Chip: Does Houston’s recent draft history (hitting big w/Correa and Bregman and lots of hope for Tucker, missing on Appel and Aiken for various reasons) inform us at all as to what Elias likely does at 1/1? How does Rutschman compare to Wieters?
Keith Law: I don’t think it informs anything. There’s no consensus #1 (not Rutschman, not Witt Jr.) and they may simply try to cut the best deal among the pool of candidates and then try to go over slot multiple times with later picks, as the Astros did in the Correa year, and the Phillies and Twins did in ’16 and ’17.

Marvin: Instead of stalking that girl on Twitrter, do you think Trevor Bauer would have been better off tracking down where she went to school and/or worked, then tattling to her principal/dean and or boss while demanding that she be expelled or fired?
Keith Law: That would be seriously fucked up. What an entirely normal question.

Jo-Nathan: Hey Keith, is there any way to access to your work in Canada now that everything is behind ESPN+? I emailed and called ESPN weeks ago but I haven’t received a response. Very odd that they don’t want to take my money anymore (I get that its to block me from streaming content but I would gladly pay the same price to access writing content alone).
Keith Law: Unfortunately I don’t know of an answer yet. I’m sorry.

Susie: Do you see Ian Anderson as a top of the rotation type in the near future? Any concerns with the spin rate of his arsenal?
Keith Law: I do not have concerns about anyone’s spin rate unless the hitters start hitting it. The goal here is not maximizing spin rate, but maximizing results. If improving one’s spin rate gets better results, great, but when the results are good (as Anderson’s have been), why would we concern ourselves with his spin rate either way? (By the way, I have never heard anyone say his spin rates are poor.)

Dana: I think every MLB team should be forced to disclose their revenue and spend a certain percentage of it on player salaries. Agree?
Keith Law: Yes. You should go run the MLBPA.

Dusty: Any update on The Leftovers? I’ve been anxious to see what you thought of the 2nd and 3rd seasons.
Keith Law: I have no immediate plans to continue watching. I let my HBO subscription lapse a while ago.

Chris: What are your thoughts on all the Mets moves last weekend?
Keith Law: They keep trading dollars for 80 cents. Lockett is a waiver claim; Plawecki is at least a solid backup. The Houston deal was worse – Santana is a real prospect, Adolph has tools, while the return was an up and down type and an NP. I had multiple texts from scouts that day asking what the Mets were thinking.

Zarathustra: Do you have any book recommendations for someone who has read (and enjoyed) just about everything Richard Russo has written?
Keith Law: I would say Ann Patchett’s work – she lacks his wry humor, but her novels are also intensely humanist, with well-developed characters and real storylines built around the most universal emotions and themes.

Klentack: Which player fits better – Harper (due to LH power) or Machado (3B more position of need) for Phillies??
Keith Law: Again, either. I’m not sure there’s a club that couldn’t use both. Maybe the Rockies?

Lance: I just read an interesting article about Will Smith. I had no idea how effective he was last year. With his salary and control years, is it possible the Giants could get more for trading him than they would for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: I think the glut of relievers on the market would make that hard.

John: Hey Keith, did you ever write a review for D.H. Lawrence’s The Rainbow? Was curious to see your thoughts.
Keith Law: Never read it. Didn’t enjoy Women in Love.

Phil: Is Adames good enough at SS to stay there until Franco arrives, or does he move earlier?
Keith Law: I’m not sure either is a long-term shortstop; the best SS in the system is probably Fox.

Chris: Would the Yankees have been better off signing Dozier to play 2B and move Torres to SS instead of signing Tulo?
Keith Law: In the abstract, sure, but it’s an $8.5 million difference.

Jim: Hey, Keith. So reports are Dozier has signed with the Nats for 1/$9M. Good deal (2018 was an aberration) or bad (2018 was the first step off the cliff)?
Keith Law: Overpay, but the Nats probably have the greatest benefit from each marginal win, so it may not be an overpay for them specifically. Hell, I’m glad at least one GM is out there to win some games.

HugoZ: Now that the Braves definitely have the #9 pick this year, should it be a position player?
Keith Law: It should be the best player.

Jim: What is your take on the Braves firing Bridges and Clark?
Keith Law: Change in direction for the department. I know both guys, respect them quite a bit, and expect they’ll be out of work for about 20 minutes.

Joe Random: why do you think Kingery struggled last year? were there signs he will bounce back this year?
Keith Law: I don’t think it helped that he had to play so much on the left side of the infield, for which he is ill-suited.

Mark: Do you think it’s fair to judge past player performance on metrics that are valued more today for hall of fame consideration or does context of the era matter?
Keith Law: Other than maybe framing, what has really changed? People who claim OBP wasn’t valued are talking out of their asses – everyone knew making outs was bad. It was undervalued on the market, or as a tool for projection, but we have stuff back to Branch Rickey’s time about the value of getting on base.

BMonster: Do you have a target date for releasing your top 100? Thanks!
Keith Law: I believe I announced this last chat – it starts January 28th.

Mark: Do you think Andujar is a good fit for the Padres? Obviously 3B is a need, and they can be patient on his defense. What kind of package would it take to get him?
Keith Law: No, I do not.

Joe Random: how do you think Pache’s bat will develop? can he develop average power?
Keith Law: He already has average power.

Justin: Are you anticipating a labor strike with the way free agency has gone the past 2 years?
Keith Law: I’m anticipating a difficult negotiation, but that doesn’t have to be a strike/lockout.

Jay from southern IL: The local media is really talking up Cardinals prospects Malcom Nunez, Jhon Torres, and Joerlin de lo Santos. All are very young and far away, but I was wondering if you had opinions on these three? (Looking to eliminate the home team bias)
Keith Law: Torres is on my Cardinals rankings, which again you’ll see later this month.

Alex: Hi Keith.My girlfriend and i are expecting our first kid.any book recommandations to help with whats ahead?thank you
Keith Law: The Happiest Baby on the Block.

Chris: Would you rather give Bryce Harper a 10-year, $320M deal with a couple of opts out or a six-year, $240M deal with one opt out?
Keith Law: The six-year deal.

Nate: Keith, I find it almost incomprehensible that the reporting of only a few teams being in legitimate conversations with Harper and Machado. 26 year old generational talents hitting free agency just doesn’t happen. Do you think there is a lot more going on behind the scenes or is the new CBA really having that large effect on the way teams are looking to spend money?
Keith Law: The luxury tax cum salary cap is obviously having an effect, but it feels … collusive.

Andy: How disappointed were you in the golden globes, and do you think the Oscars will follow suit?
Keith Law: Disappointed is the wrong word – it hardly affects me at all. I do like seeing good work rewarded, whether it’s films, books, TV, music, because that can drive more of an audience to that work, and thus give the artists in question more money and opportunities to create more.

Rick C: Is there anything to the Bridges and Clark firing, or is it really just one of those proverbial changes in direction?
Keith Law: That’s all it is.

Dustin: I’ve finally begun work on Smart Baseball and am about 2/3 of the way through it. Will the final section include a best practices manual for making my father- and brother-in-law read it so we can have some intelligent conversations about MLB for a change?
Keith Law: Um …. yyyyyyyes.

Nils: Sorry, with the link: https://gizmodo.com/how-cartographers-for-the-u-s-military-inadvertent…
Keith Law: Thanks!

Justin: will there be a write up on the Brewers signing of Grandal?
Keith Law: Probably not. Prospect writing time.

Dagoberto Campaneris: $2 million for Shelby Miller — is there upside for the Rangers there? Or is Miller just irretrievably broken after all the injuries the past few years?
Keith Law: Coming back from TJ, very reasonable risk.

Justin: Assuming the Pirates have the ability to add, say, $15 million on payroll, what FA seems like an obvious fit for them? I’m specifically thinking they should take a shot on Lowrie for SS for a year (until Cole Tucker can move him to 2b), but you’ve always liked Newman.
Keith Law: I also don’t think Lowrie can handle short.

Brent: Hi, Keith, hope you’re well. Do you have a sense yet if Corey Ray is likely to reappear in your top 100?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

LukeM: You are going to get a million questions about them so Just get it out of the way and tell us who you predict Harper and Machado end up with?
Keith Law: Nah. I’ve never liked those predictions – it would be based on so little. When I talk to GMs or other top execs I don’t waste time asking them about that stuff. Their time is valuable and my access to it is finite, so I’d rather ask them about stuff they might really want to discuss candidly.

Jason: Whats the deal with grandal signing a one year deal? I love it as a brewers fan but couldn’t he have gotten a better multi-year deal?
Keith Law: On talent, sure. The market is bad this winter, and I think his poor October and reputation for not working well with pitchers hurt his market further.
Keith Law: That reputation goes back to San Diego, FWIW. I don’t think this is just “Kershaw hates him” or something.

Jimmy: Would it be a stretch to see Madrigal in the majors this year?
Keith Law: No, but I think his ceiling is really low.

Jack : Are you rooting for a Harper/Robles/Soto outfield for the next 6 years? I honestly think it has all timer potential if Bryce returns.
Keith Law: That would be tremendous, but it feels unlikely?

Tom: I think that Trevor Bauer question might have been in reference to something Darren Rovell did.
Keith Law: Ah. I missed that. I have contacted employers when I’ve thought I was threatened, though. I think that’s justified. Calling for someone to be expelled, though … jeez.

Canadian Jesus: Why isn’t the ability to have a high walk rate considered a tool? It doesn’t really seem like something that should be lumped into the hit tool with bat-speed etc…?
Keith Law: It’s a skill, but in Toronto we made it a separate grade on the scouting report, and I think now pretty much all teams do that in some fashion.
Keith Law: The tools are physical, though. Your plate discipline is a skill.

Kyle: Given all the recent issues with Facebook, do you have any misgivings about using it? Do you utilitize it for personal use or only work? I try to use it less and less (deleted the app) but so many friends and family use it for planning events or keeping in touch that it’s hard to step away. Curious how you feel about it.
Keith Law: I definitely have those misgivings. I do still use it for my public page (@keithlawwriter) and to communicate with a small number of friends who use Messenger all the time.

Stephen: In your opinion: Top 3 front offices in MLB? Bottom 3 front offices? Would love to see that list expanded in longer form too.
Keith Law: Nope. Never doing that.

Bradley: Thoughts on the Stewart grievance? Seems weird that his camp would claim he didn’t receive the 40% offer when something like that would easily be proved/disproved. Which apparently the Braves did as Stewart has already reported lost the grievance. Was this just spite? or was there something more to this? Any connections to the recent firings?
Keith Law: Was that his camp’s claim? I hadn’t heard that aspect. I thought the claim was that the injury didn’t merit the 60% cut.

Paul: How can mlb discuss pace of play when the off season has been a total snooze fest? Do you think these slow winters hurt the sport?
Keith Law: Yes. The winter meetings used to be a great time for the sport to grab headlines in the dead of the offseason.

Derek: Isaac Paredes – do you think he has a good chance to hit his way up to AAA this summer and debut sometime in 2020? Thanks for chatting!
Keith Law: Yep, that all sounds right.

Ed: Who is someone in the White Sox minors besides Eloy to be excited about thia season?
Keith Law: Cease finished in AA; he could debut this year. Basabe or even Luis Gonzalez could surface too.

Luke: Thoughts on Keon Broxton? Seems like the only deal that the mets didnt get fleeced
Keith Law: His defensive numbers last year were extremely fluky in a tiny sample and he’s probably a .280-290 OBP guy. Whee.

Raphael: Hey Keith, there’s an uncomfortable situation in the UFC at the moment as Rachael Ostovich, who admiringly decided to still compete next weekend despite recent injuries she sustained at the hands of her husband, is on the same card as known domestic abuser Greg Hardy (UFC’s first event with ESPN). I’m not going to ask for your opinion on the sport or of Dana White and his decision, but rather, for your thoughts on Ostovich taking the “everyone deserves a second chance” stance in regards to Hardy and her husband. Should we let victims decide how we should view abusers, or is this attitude, even if it belongs to the victims, simply part of why domestic violence is such a big issue, in that the victims are unable to accept their abusers for the monsters that they truly are?
Keith Law: I know nothing of this situation, but will say 1) we should always listen to victims but 2) it’s very common for domestic violence victims to ‘stand up’ for their abusers, such as declining to press charges. It’s complicated. Supporting victims is the one thing we could probably all agree on.

Mac: How did all 30 teams come to the same conclusion at the same time that they prefer profits over winning? Somethings not right.
Keith Law: It’s kind of weird, right?

PD: Thoughts on triple restaurant week?
Keith Law: should I know this? I think Philly’s restaurant week is coming up, actually.

Tom: What are your expectations for Shane Bieber? Think last year’s peripherals largely carry over and we see the ERA come down a fair amount?
Keith Law: Always going to be a big HR guy.

LukeM: Which board game, that you played for the first time in 2018, was your favorite?
Keith Law: Everdell. I wrote up my top ten for the year. That covers new games, but there were pre-2018 games I played for the first time and loved, including Sagrada. I also finally got and played Clank! in the last week and it’s pretty fun, if a bit luck-driven.

Gary: Is Ramos at 2/18m a better deal for the Mets than the 4/60m Grandal supposedly turned down?
Keith Law: Definitely. My favorite Mets move of the winter.

Clete: You a Tres Barrera guy? On any of the Nat’s catcher prospects?
Keith Law: He’s an org guy for me.

Marcus: I hate the “back in my day” person, but I’m lost on this one. My wife is doing a long-term sub position, and despite students refusing to turn work in on time–or even do it–she has been instructed not to fail anyone for anything. I can understand passing a student who may not do great work but is trying, but just shoving the problem on to the next grade…does that make any sense?
Keith Law: Sounds like a systemic issue – probably they don’t want the hassle of forcing a student to repeat a level. I don’t think that helps the child at all.

Matt: Did you see the movie Eighth Grade?
Keith Law: Not yet.

Andres: I know this is a sports/books/games/music type of chat, but in a simple answer — who’s most to blame for the government shutdown?
Keith Law: The guy who loves Wall and can’t stop talking about Wall.

Sloan: If you were Machado, and money was equal, would you join the Phillies, Yankees or White Sox?
Keith Law: The money is never equal. It’s just not – there are different tax considerations for each market, costs of living, etc.

Brandon: Do you think the recent signings of Grandal and Dozier to 1 year deals means that A.J. Pollock could be heading for a similar deal?
Keith Law: I’d be floored.

Sloan: Thoughts on the Herrera signing?
Keith Law: Surprised a guy who missed half of last year with an injury got that deal.

Alan: Do you think that Peter Alonso will be able to overcome his inability to field to be successful at the MLB level.
Keith Law: I think he’s a 40 defender right now. Either that gets a lot better, or he goes to the AL to DH.

Chris: Best case scenario for Tulo is to somehow stay healthy til Didi returns and give them a dead cat bounce half season, right?
Keith Law: Yep. Aubrey Huff had one of those for about four months. Then he cratered.

Thomas: What of peak offense year would you expect from Willy Adames given his hit and power tool? Is he a .300/.375/.475 type or is that overselling his power?
Keith Law: I think that oversells his power, not his hit tool, although with the silly ball maybe not.

Ben : I am so down with your take on Life and Times of Michael K. Couldn’t get engaged with it. Especially in comparison to the Road, which my eyes were like magnetically attached to.
Keith Law: Yeah, I enjoy fabulist novels but didn’t connect with that one.

Anthony: Grandal an overpay at 1/$18.25M?
Keith Law: No.

Mitch: Do you feel it’s likely that Edgar makes the leap into the HOF this time around?
Keith Law: No doubt.

Patrick: Waiting to board a flight to Chicago. Any restaurant recommendations?
Keith Law: Monteverde! Publican, Little Goat, any of Rick Bayliss’ places.

HugoZ: Well yes, but is the best player at nine likely to be a position player?
Keith Law: I honestly don’t know that at this point. It’s probably 55/45 that the best player available is a pitcher, because teams up top tend to avoid HS pitchers, so they get pushed down a bit. It’s also just a bad college crop.

Jeff: Are you a believer in the revamped swing of Kevin Smith (Blue Jays)? Is he a possible regular in the bigs
Keith Law: No. Utility guy.

John: Will Ross Stripling be back in the rotation and pitching like a No.2/3 guy this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s a 5.

Phil: Will smith or Keibert Ruiz?
Keith Law: That’s not close – Ruiz is an elite prospect.

Jordan: Do you think Conforto can return to an all star type of hitter this season? Had a really promising second half. Feels like the Mets rushed him back from shoulder surgery.
Keith Law: Yes and I think that’s probably the reason.

seanj8: MLB wants to expand, so what two cities make the most sense to be awarded teams? Mine are Nashville and Montreal. Portland gets some consideration too.
Keith Law: Nashville is growing like mad, but even so, it would be the second smallest market in MLB. Indianapolis actually has more people (not that I’d put an MLB team there either). Only Milwaukee is smaller. Austin and San Antonio’s MSAs are both over 2 million, and they’re 80 miles apart from each other. That’s a lost opportunity there.

Jeff D.: If you’re Andrew Friedman and offer Harper a short term/high value deal which he rejects, what’s your next move to improve the team?
Keith Law: Offer him a longer deal.

Jerry: Who do you see being the Astros 4th and 5th starters by June? Assuming no injuries of course….
Keith Law: Josh James and Forrest Whitley.

Granfalloon: How much responsibility do you think you and other saber-oriented writers, who spent the last 20 years arguing online that free agent contracts were bloated and that teams were overpaying for veterans, bear for the current state of things where franchises are being cheap and not fairly compensating players? In retrospect, do you think y’all shouldn’t have been making those arguments?
Keith Law: That’s dumb for a few reasons, not least among which is that more analytical writers have talked up players like Harper and Machado, hitting free agency at 26, and their markets are thin too.

Green Book : I am a piece of shit movie that is racially bananas. What is happening and how am I winning things when movies like Beale Street, Favourite, Blackkklansman, and Roma are out there. (Granted this was still a poor year IMO on the film front).
Keith Law: I think it was a tremendous year for movies. I have 40 films ranked over Green Book.

Chris D: What do you think about Nathaniel Lowe? Will he carve out an above average MLB career?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Frank Thomas (not that one): What would your solution be to fix what has become a major problem in MLB as far as owners spending on MLB talent? Salary cap? Higher floor? Less service time before a player hits FA? Limiting lengths and values of max contracts a la the NBA?
Keith Law: Speed up free agency, raise the minimum salary for 0-2 guys.

Mat: Who’s your #1 Prospect for the June 2019 MLB Draft?
Keith Law: TBD. There isn’t a clear one yet.

Ricky: Favorite meal to make during the week when you are tight on time?
Keith Law: You can spatchcock and roast an entire chicken in about 45 minutes. I also like to do simple chicken cutlets – sometimes just panko breading, sometimes adding sesame seeds and maybe some chopped sunflower seeds – as a main dish because they scale well and reheat nicely in the oven.

Mark: Would you ever consider writing a book about your experience as a GM? I think it would be very fun to read about trades, player development, constructing a team, etc…
Keith Law: I’d love to, but I’d need to be a GM first.

Sean: I’m thinking now is the time to go all in if I’m running the brewers. So close last year, why not trade for Bumgarner and sign Keuchel?
Keith Law: Don’t think they need two starters – they have Burnes and Woodruff, both good, both ready for the rotation.

Sean: Hi, Keith. Thank you for doing these and I hope all is well. I wanted to get your opinion on what the Padres should do this offseason. Stand pat? Focus on 2020? Go after an Ace? I still think we’re a year away and would hate to see us make another move like the Hosmer signing of a year ago.
Keith Law: Focus on 2020, try to dump one of Myers or Hosmer for a bad contract at another position.

Econ: Is there a space somewhere in between where “players deserve more” and “overpaying marginal players is a bad idea” that can exist?
Keith Law: The idea of overpaying free agents also oversimplifies the part about how the value of a marginal win varies by team. An extra win for the Nationals, who are in a decent-sized market and really should be a playoff team, is worth more than the same extra win is to the Padres, who are not contenders, or even the Reds, who need to pick up maybe ten or more wins to become contenders.

Everett L: Did Nico Hoerner change how you rate him based on his play in the AFL?
Keith Law: No. I like to watch and think about players there, but try not to make dramatic changes to evaluations off that look because it’s not normal minor league play.

AGirlHasNoName: Ok, I have a crystal ball, if the Cubs cut Russell they win 91 games and miss the playoffs, if they keep him they win 94 and make the playoffs. As a fan, do you still want them to cut him? Is there a point where the cost isn’t worth the benefit?
Keith Law: Then he’s more than worth his salary – the playoff berth is worth a lot more than the marginal $6.5 million or so to keep him. It becomes a moral decision. I personally would not employ a player who did what he did, such as choking his wife (which, I’ve mentioned many times before, is a major precursor to homicide).

Sean: Giants looking at signing potentially trading Panik and signing LeMahieu, that would be a net positive IMO. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Depends on what you get for Panik.

TomBruno23: If Bumgarner is available, I think the Cardinals should be all over that. Fits in well with their older player/short term contract roster and wouldn’t/shouldn’t cost too much in terms of a trade. Dakota Hudson for a year of Bumgarner?
Keith Law: Hudson’s probably a reliever so I’d do it.

Roma : I think I *might* be the easiest choice for Best Picture in the last 10 years. This is like Mike Trout competing against Mike Moustakas, Jean Segura, and a replacement level player who is also racist.
Keith Law: Yes, but I still think A Star is Born wins.
Keith Law: I’d vote for Roma among the likely nominees.

Canadian Jesus: I get your answer, but if plate discipline is a skill shouldn’t fielding be classed as a skill as well? There is obviously way more to fielding than just range or loose hips.
Keith Law: You’re being a little pedantic here, but also, much of fielding is determined by physical skill.

LukeM: Who is a comparable player to Nolan Gorman? Tons of power but strikeouts are a concern. Is a Joey Gallo or Khris Davis comparison fair?
Keith Law: I like him more than I ever liked Davis as a prospect. I think Gorman will hit a bit more than Gallo. Gallo has the most raw power I’ve ever seen on a prospect.

Adam: Is there any logic to the Padres signing Hosmer to that big deal last year and now going back to penny pinching mode? I get that Hosmer contract was a mistake but cant deter you from making any other big financial decisions.
Keith Law: Are they pinching pennies or just avoiding a second mistake?

Spiny Norman: Dinsdale?
Keith Law: He’s nailed to the coffee table.

Andrew Friedman: Who would you rather trade…Verdugo or Ruiz/Smith
Keith Law: Verdugo. I think he’s good but easier to replace than Ruiz.

Ridley Kemp: Thank you for your tireless…well, it’s probably pretty tiring…rebuttal of the antivaxxers. The real danger they represent needs answering, but it can’t be fun.

Have you had a chance to read Michael Pollan’s How To Change Your Mind? I picked it up when my therapist told me she was reading it for the third time. As a non-user of controlled substances, I still found it fascinating and I learned more about the the brain and depression treatments than I have anywhere else.
Keith Law: I haven’t. I did just finish Leonard Mlodinow’s Elastic (as an audiobook), about the power of ‘flexible thinking,’ which also gets into a lot of how we come to conclusions and refuse to change them, often because our brains don’t even accept other possible interpretations or evidence.

Noah Syndergaard: We’re going to get Biden vs. Warren as a sequel to Clinton vs. Bernie, aren’t we? Team Trump would love that.
Keith Law: Biden needs to step aside, now. Next generation, please.

Daniel: Considering the recent reports of MLB’s revenues, are there any competitive teams that can reasonably justify not being willing to spend above the tax? I’m a Braves fan, and considering those revenue reports, and the whole Cobb County/SunTrust Park thing, I really don’t understand why they’re not in on Harper. (Maybe they are, and AA is just really good at keeping it out of the media?)
Keith Law: I think that’s corporate ownership telling them not to spend.

Cjc: Thoughts on Chance Adams having a bounce-back year as a starter? Or is he just an up and down reliever?
Keith Law: Reliever only.

Dan: Hi Keith – thanks for all your work. With Kopech out this year and some important pieces that will at least begin the year in the minors, is 2020 a realistic expectation for the White Sox to start contending for their division? I’ll be honest, I have concerns with the development of Giolitto/Moncada/Rodon and others, and am afraid of the rebuild not panning out.
Keith Law: That division is weak enough that they should be doing what they’re doing – trying to go get a big star now, figuring he’ll be there for the next 4-5 years as the kids arrive and the team gets really good.

Matt W: So wait, do the Mets really not scout below full season ball?
Keith Law: That is correct.

Ben: Keith, you’ve been high on Willi Castro for a little while. But, others in the industry label him as a likely utilityman/fringe regular. Do you think he can be the Tiger’s answer at SS?
Keith Law: I do. High IQ guy, feel to hit, absolutely has to get stronger.

Biff: Do you have any insight into the slow development/ lack of improvement of Moniak ?
Keith Law: Swing issues, possible the team overrated the makeup.
Keith Law: Also, when I’ve seen him, he’s been unable to recognize spin.

Pat D: Since we expect the various veterans committees to make bad choices, which would be “worse”: McGriff getting in via committee (I think we all expect him to) or Vizquel getting in via BBWAA?
Keith Law: The committee’s picks nearly always suck. Vizquel getting in would be a real indictment of the BBWAA even as the electorate has been getting smarter.

Mark: Should cardinals offer Keuchel 1 year at 23M?
Keith Law: Shouldn’t every contender offer him that?

Archie: Any chance the Brewers give up Burnes or Hiura in a deal for Bumgarner?
Keith Law: No. That would be really stupid, and they’re not stupid.

BK: Does Brandon Marsh have any “star” upside?
Keith Law: yes.

JJ: what kind of pro does Kyler Murray project to be?
Keith Law: Enormous range of outcomes. Could make some All-Star teams. Could stall in AA. The guy is 1000 or so at bats behind where he should be at this age.
Keith Law: Maybe 800. You get the point.

Chris : Wouldn’t you rather have Plawecki as a back-up at a$1.5M than d’Arnaud at $4M?
Keith Law: Yes, because d’Arnaud is made of glass.

john: why do minor leaguers get paid so little??
Keith Law: Because MLB slipped a clause into the GOP Tax Bill from 2017 that protected them.

Concerned Teacher: You mentioned in a previous chat not having heard of the vaping company named Juul. I am a high school teacher and a parent I think you should familiarize yourself with them. Kids are entering high school already hopelessly hooked on nicotine because of these Juuls, which look very similar to a USB drive. They were the fastest start up company ever to reach $10B in.
Keith Law: I have now, of course. The Ringer called them a scam for Big Tobacco in a post today. Vile.

EG: Bryce harper will finish the year ranked top _____ in fWAR.
Keith Law: Ten.

Tony B: Is it better to vote for someone you view as a leader and can lead to unity in the nation or someone who you agree with their political views?
Keith Law: why not both girl dot gif

Aaron: Just curious, considering the options at most minor league ballparks, Do you ever eat at a stadium and if so what?
Keith Law: Almost never.

Joe: In general, I’m not a fan of relievers in the Hall of Fame. But if you go by the standards set by the guys already in, Wagner is a Hall of Famer, right? There are 7 pitchers who were primarily relievers in the HOF right now (including Smith), and I think it’s pretty easy to argue Wagner was more dominant than at least 3-4 of them. He just didn’t stick around a few more years and compile saves at the end of his career.
Keith Law: Wagner is better than Smith and probably better than Hoffman. I think he’ll sneak in.

Greg: Keith- Re: Kyler Murray. There’s been some argument that since he plays QB, and since the rules these days protect QBs to a nearly ridiculous degree, the risk to him is much less than if he played a different position. Jeff Samardzija playing baseball over being a tight end made sense, but QB is protected so much more than even two years ago. At this point if he were a catcher I think he’d take more foul balls of the head than he’d take hits to the head as a QB. I originally thought it was a bo-brainer to pick baseball for the reasons you mentioned, but the more I watch football and every roughing the passer penalty, it’s tough to imagine he’d rather ride buses for 4-5 years that be a starting QB in the NFL in 8 months.
Keith Law: It takes just one hit, even an illegal one, to wreck a guy’s life. And he’s small.

Sean: Did you happen to see Sean Doolittle’s thread on twitter regarding ways to improve the game? I think it’s great to see him interacting with fans directly, a lot of good points were made. Unlike Bauer, he seems to have a good head on his shoulders.
Keith Law: He’s one of the best humans in the sport and we are very fortunate to have him and Eireann as ambassadors for the game in general and for just being good, kind people.

Bob: Do you think Faedo can get back to a mid-rotation projection or is he more of a 4/5 type?
Keith Law: Probably reliever.

Andy: What do you think about the movie vice?
Keith Law: I’ll see it this weekend. Tried to see it Tuesday night but the showing was nearly sold out and I will not sit in the front row.

Michael: What did you think of Isle of Dogs?
Keith Law: My review.

Dan: What does the future hold for Sean Reid-Foley? He seemed likely to be in the opening day rotation but that was before they added Shoemaker and Richard to the mix.
Keith Law: Needs a better pitch for LHB or he’s not a starter.

Mark: Future value of Keston Hiura? Can he turn into a Daniel Murphy type player (high avg which helps the power play up, mediocre D)?
Keith Law: RHB so he won’t have the platoon issues.

Dell: Any chance Caleb Ferguson gets another shot to start? And are you out on Urias?
Keith Law: I’m not out on any Uriases that I can think of. If you mean Julio, we are in uncharted waters for someone with that injury.

Dan: Could you see Ronny Mauricio as a guy who could see a catastrophic rise in the rankings over the next 2-3 years?
Keith Law: That’s an interesting choice of adjectives there. He’s got enormous potential, though.

Bob: Any good books to help with anxiety?
Keith Law: Fully Present is my go-to recommendation.

Dr. Bob: What would happen if an MLB team bucked the trend and doubled the salaries of their minor league players?
Keith Law: A very angry phone call from Park Avenue.

Jake Lawson: Just FYI, if you ever check out the Round Rock Express, there’s a Salt Like BBQ in the parking lot. It’s not Franklin’s or Mickelthwait, but it’s miles ahead of most ballpark food.
Keith Law: I’ve actually been to that one. It was solid. Probably a 50.

Lou: Aside from Ruiz and Verdugo, have the Dodgers drained most of their elite talent from the farm?
Keith Law: No.

Rahn: I ask you this every offseason so here goes: Who is one Pirates prospect who most intrigues you and whose development you’ll be tracking closely?
Keith Law: Org reports run the week of February 4th.

Kacey: If a hs player was unknown and then hit their growth spurt and had an incredible year with their HS team, would they likely slip through the cracks because they aren’t known via their travel team?
Keith Law: No, unless he were in some really remote place that is generally undercovered – North Dakota, Alaska, something like that.

Archie: Is Billy Wagner the best small college player you have ever seen?
Keith Law: Dunno, Alex Bregman was a great small college player. He’s only about 5’8″.

Jim: How do you “speed up free agency”? Front offices would sign off on a deadline to signing players? How does that work?
Keith Law: A deadline would help, yes.

Bob: One report I’ve read on Kelenic warns he has some “tweener warning signs” in his profile. Is something you’d agree with?
Keith Law: No. Sounds like a bad source.

Danny: Do you think Deivi Garcia will be a starter and if not, can he be a set up or closer type?
Keith Law: Starter.

Dave: Did you do a review of into the Spider-Verse? Seemed to hate it during the Globes.
Keith Law: I didn’t review that or the two Disney entries. I found Spider-Verse cliched and unbelievably violent for a movie aimed at kids. It had a few laughs (Spider-Ham was legitimately funny). The resolution really didn’t do enough for the Miles character, either.

LukeM: Any thoughts on Malcolm Nunez for the Cardinals. Saw an article showing his ridiculous wRC+ this past year and he looks really promising. I know he’s super young and a long ways off but it’s fun to look for potential future superstars.
Keith Law: Do not use wRC+ to evaluate prospects. And Nunez went into the DSL with more real game experience than most of the competition. That’s not to say he’s a zero, but that this is serious stat-line scouting.

Mark: Did you do voices when you used to read to your daughter ?
Keith Law: Always. After a few books she’d demand it.

SpG: Unbelievably Violent? 80’a Kids were raised on Predator & Robocop, man… it was a love letter to comic book readers.
Keith Law: That doesn’t make it any less violent. And violence is a weak way to write your superhero story.

Kacey: When did white supremacist become an offensive term?
Keith Law: When did Rep. King’s party become comfortable with white supremacists in its house?

Mark: Just curious, given your love of gaming, have you ever played Magic: The Gathering? I know Longenhagen is a fan, and they’ve been making a push into eSports recently with their new Arena product.
Keith Law: No – not interested in CCGs as a genre.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – back to writeups for now. Thank you as always for reading and bearing with me this month. Still more calls to make and words to write. I promise to give you the best words!

My latest board game review for Paste covers Forbidden Sky, a new cooperative title from Matt Leacock (Pandemic, Forbidden Island) with a great STEM component to game play.

A reminder: the Top 100 prospect package begins its rollout on ESPN.com on Monday, January 28th.

Keith Law: At least we left before we had to go. Klawchat.

addoeh: Over/under? Combined, Harper and Machado’s deals end up being worth $500 million.
Keith Law: I’ll still take the over. I think the potential boost, in ticket sales and in wins, from adding one of those players will convince an owner to blink before we get to March. It’s the middle and lower tiers who will bear the brunt of the teams’ parsimony.

Nook: Is Bellinger still young enough to make significant strides offensively, or do you think 2018 was a realistic showing of who he is?
Keith Law: He’s still 23 so age isn’t a concern, but the way he swings leaves him vulnerable to a couple of pitching plans and he has to show he can adjust and shorten up if he wants to be more than he’s already been.

Adriane: Could you see the Reds selling off most of these new acquisitions at the deadline if the first half is a disappointment?
Keith Law: Yes, or even next winter in the case of Gray if he has a good year but the team still finishes in 4th place.

Kimmy: Dennis Santana: 4th-starter ceiling?
Keith Law: More likely reliever for me. I feel like if he starts he’d be more than that, but the odds are he’s a reliever.

Devon: Do you see the current collusion in the FA market as a cyclical problem that disappears after a few offseasons?
Keith Law: If it’s collusion, it’s not cyclical. One or the other.

Ave Maria: Is there a pitcher in the Dodgers system you’re particularly high on at the moment?
Keith Law: Several. You’ll see a couple of those names Monday-Wednesday.

Genesis B: Not that you care, but do you think Jeter has tainted his legacy somewhat since his group took over the Marlins?
Keith Law: I don’t care, but I can still comment. And yes, I think so.

barbeach: KLaw: Thanks as always for the chat. Question: Who is worse at his job: Trump or Giuliani? It’s close, but I have to go with Rudy.
Keith Law: Giuliani. He makes Lionel Hutz (RIP) look like Clarence Darrow.

Guest: Thoughts on the Mariano induction? Does this mean unanimous elections are going to be more common?
Keith Law: I believe they will be and fans will attach undue meaning to it. If your player gets in with 75.00%, that should be good enough.

Chris : The Markakis and Pomeranz deals are great for ATL and SFG. Agree?
Keith Law: They’re fine. They’re not bad. Great … would require a lot more than I think either player will provide.

Guest: What are the odds that the Mets traded Kelenic at his highest peak value? I’m sure the Rangers wish they traded Profar.
Keith Law: Low. Kelenic was too impressive this summer to think he’s peaked.

Helena: Is the long reliever cemented as a thing of the past, or could the Brewers’ and Red Sox postseason strategies revive it?
Keith Law: On the contrary, it’s already been revived, and I’m hearing more scouts describe pitchers as multi-inning relievers rather than just going with the binary starter/reliever framework.

Chris : Any buy-low FA starters you’d take over others? Wade Miley and Doug Fister seem like innings eaters in the right environment.
Keith Law: Miley for sure, best of that group. Fister, no.

Esteban: Who are a couple of names that weren’t on the top 100 or ‘Just Missed’ list that you wouldn’t be surprised–even expect– to make a big leap?
Keith Law: I’m not revealing any names on the list today. You’ll see them Monday through Wednesday and I will chat either Wednesday or Thursday.

addoeh: So our billionaire Commerce Secretary had his “Let them eat cake!” moment by saying furloughed Federal employees should get loans to cover the fact they aren’t getting paychecks. Of course, loans themselves have a real cost and some Federal employees may only be able to get predatory loans. Can he really be that out of touch?
Keith Law: Yes, he definitely is, as is Lara Trump, as are so many of the people responsible for the Trump Shutdown who appear unaware of the consequences for so many federal workers and for so many people who voted for Trump.

Leonardo: While it’s nice that Rivera was named on 100% of the HOF ballots it makes me wonder why 23 people didn’t vote for Willie Mays and 9 passed on Hank Aaron. I feel they were much better players (even in a different era). Any theories/ideas?
Keith Law: Lack of accountability. Misguided notions of “not on the first ballot.” General stupidity.

Mark: Hi Klaw,
If for some reason Tatis isn’t called up (injury, poor production, etc.) is Urias good enough defensively to play a full season at SS and be at least league average?
Keith Law: I think he’d be a 45 defender in the majors at short. I’m fine with him playing there for two months while Tatis tears up triple-A.

Mark: Keith,
Did you read the story in the SD Union-Tribune about the Padres’ owners “opening their books”? If so, did you find any of the information notable or was it just spin? Fowler, et all, come off looking like novices, like they didn’t know Moores was leaving a ton of debt or that just because you acquire some MLB players for one season in 2015 it doesn’t automatically mean you’re going to make a $50 million profit.
Keith Law: It did not paint the owners in a particularly good light.

Lafayette: If Andrew Friedman phoned you in a panic, desperate to find out how to put a World Series champion on the field, what would you tell him (after “Read ‘Smart Baseball”) ?
Keith Law: Live by launch angle, die by launch angle.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Snit saying they are leaning toward Inciarte leading off. 2 weeks max before they swtich Acuna there, right?
Keith Law: Yeah, that’s the wrong choice.

Kip: Arenado or Machado?
Keith Law: Machado.

Trevor: The D-backs have announced they’re switching their field surface from grass to turf next year and the Rangers may install it in their new stadium. Are you a purist and prefer the natural surface or ¯\_(?)_/¯ about it? Does it affect the grading of defensive skills in anyway?
Keith Law: Doesn’t affect the grading. Prefer grass from the aesthetic perspective but it’s still baseball on good turf.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for the chat. Who do we see first in MLB, a lefty catcher or lefty middle infielder. I read where Mets prospect Carlos Cortes learned how to throw with right hand so he can still play the infield. That’s crazy,
Keith Law: How could a lefty thrower play short or second?

Marshall MN: KLaw, I was just perusing the Baseball Prospectus Top 100, just curious do you ever look at those lists? Not necessarily as a check on your work but just to see how other writers/analysts rank prospects?
Keith Law: I look at BA’s (came out yesterday), MLB’s (comes out Saturday), and Fangraphs’ (comes out after the Super Bowl, date TBD). Those are the only lists I find credible, and I believe that is the industry sentiment. Jonathan Mayo and I generally compare our lists once they’re published, too. It’s fun to see what we heard that lined up and what we heard that widely differed.

Alex: As an author, how do you feel about people who can afford to buy your book, or any book, borrowing from the library instead? Is it a material drain on earnings? As background, my wife and I are trying to reduce our “new” purchases, but I don’t want to hurt authors.
Keith Law: Read my book however you like. I use the library myself. I buy new and used books. I buy ebooks when I see they’re on sale. read 104 books last year – that’s a lot of money if I buy them all new.

Kody: Dodgers sign Pollock for 4-5 years depending on who you believe. Doesn’t even a 10 year deal for Harper taking him through about the same age as Pollock’s deal make more sense? Nobody is concerned about Harper’s 26-31 seasons, right?
Keith Law: Well it’s not the same annual cost, not close.

Marshall MN: KLaw is it too early to put in a preemptive “you hate my team” complaint prior to the release of your Top 100 list next week?
Keith Law: Never too early.

David Stearns: I am high on my guy Hirua, how much of his minor league hit prowess translates, and do we have a 2B for the next 10 years who is at the top f his game?
Keith Law: He’s a solid player, very very likely to hit enough to be a regular. Star potential is limited.

Matt: There had to be a handful of writers that didn’t want to vote Rivera but were also worried they’d be the *only* one that didn’t vote for him right?
Keith Law: I never considered omitting him, but it occurred to me that doing so could make me the only one, and then I’d have to go into hiding.

Sack: When do you expect Harper and Machado to sign?
Keith Law: In February.

Mike: When a prospect returns bonus money, as Murray in theory might, how does that actually work? Presumably he’s spent some of it, so does the team give him time to repay? And what about taxes–he presumably paid a huge tax bill in the year he got his big bonus…can he claim a huge refund in the year he gives it back?
Keith Law: If Murray has to return the money it means he just got a much larger check from the NFL. He’ll be fine.

B Mand: Do you think the current Red Sox bullpen is as big of a weakness as most make it out to be? With the year to year fluctuation of relief pitchers, I’m fine with them saving their money for in-season trades if they end up needing help.
Keith Law: Same. And I wouldn’t overpay for Kimbrel just to try to patch it.

J: With another mystifying off-season for the Rockies coming to a close, what do you see them doing with McMahon and Rodgers, at least in 2019? And, Twins’ handling of outfield prospects aside, has a top prospect been more oddly dealt with than McMahon in recent years?
Keith Law: I feel like Rodgers is blocked for the moment, although I’m not a big Hampson fan (it’s 30 power) and Rodgers might bash enough in Albuquerque (huge hitter’s park) to force the issue by June. Their reluctance to let McMahon play regularly is befuddling. High pick, touted by the team, athletic, still has growth left. Play him.

Aaron C.: Has the *official* official schedule for the daily(?) prospects postings been released or is that still in the hands of your benevolent editor?
Keith Law: I mentioned it at the top of this post.

Ryan: Keith – do you think the removal of one year of team control – or even a change in the number of years of arbitration rights a team holds over a player – could help the stagnant free agency period and/or help to re-establish the player middle class. As is, I see the league devolving into a split between the well paid superstars and the entry level/roughly minimum wage players. In fairness, baseball isn’t the only sport going this route, but it certainly feels as wrong as the shrinking middle class in America. Thank you
Keith Law: I think the best solution would be to boost the minimum salary to $1 million or more. But that has some unintended consequences too.

Tom: Al Avila said today he doesn’t foresee the Tigers spending again until 2021, and that that’s the soonest they can compete. Does 2021 seem like a realistic goal for them in terms of being relevant?
Keith Law: I probably would have said 2022. The system has improved but still has a ways to go.

Mike: Thoughts on Dodgers trading away Puig (and friends) and replacing him with older and injury prone AJ Pollock?
Keith Law: Puig was a free agent after the year, so your question is leading, omitting a critical detail – and Pollock may be older but he’s a better all-around player right now.

Shane: Have you heard any whispers about what type of punishment the Dodgers face for their international issues and if that is playing a hand in their offseason moves?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard a word about it nor have I asked. Not really my department.

Anthony: Would you support a rule that shrinks MiLB option years from 3 to 1? It seems teams cycle through pre-arb guys with options while eschewing mid-level free agents, and this could open up opportunities for players blocked in their current orgs by spurring trades or waiver claims (albeit with maybe some adverse effects on player development)?
Keith Law: I feel like owners would absolutely lose their shit over that. They love their control.

Zirinsky: Hi Keith. What should MLB and the union consider implementing: earlier free agency, scrapping amateur bonus limits…what else?
Keith Law: I like the idea of earlier free agency because it’s pro-player, but really, would it change teams’ refusal to spend? I don’t see why.

BE: With the slow moving FA market, would it make sense for a team in a winnable division to load up on bargain deals and try to steal one?
Keith Law: I think you just subtweeted the Twins and White Sox.

Jason: Is Pollock better than Joc Pederson over the next two years?
Keith Law: Yes.

Zac: After next year, do you think your HOF ballot won’t have 10 names on it?
Keith Law: If I had to fill it out right now, I’d have 9.

Kwame: I know this is kind of a cheesy question but how did it feel to cast a Hall of Fame ballot?
Keith Law: Good. An honor and a privilege, but also an obligation to take it seriously. And yet there are still people unhappy with me. ?

Bort: Bryce Harper to the Blue Jays. Wouldn’t that be fun?
Keith Law: Yes. Can’t imagine Rogers doing that.

Andrew: Where do you see Kuechel landing? Would be a great fit for Colorado and give them one of the better rotations in the NL.
Keith Law: Great fit for every team, no?

Jerry: If Kyle Tucker tears it up in the spring again is he still headed to AAA to start the season? Is there a trade market for Josh Reddick?
Keith Law: They don’t really have a DH, so there is a job for Tucker if he earns it.

Andrew: I don’t get the uproar RE: the Gillette commercial. Aren’t they just saying don’t raise your kid to be an ass?
Keith Law: Yes. The uproar felt almost manufactured. Or maybe men are just little porcelain dolls who shatter if you look at them funny.

Boa : Angels are mystery Harper/Machado suitor right? Do over from Pujols/Hamilton disasters?
Keith Law: That would be fun. And then they probably do make the playoffs.

Alex: Saw your Instagram post about ottolenghi’s newest cookbook. Food looks good! But I’m also reading reviews that the recipes for an average home cook might actually take longer than 30mins to prepare? What’s been your experience?
Keith Law: The shallow-fried potatoes I made last night required about 10-15 minutes of prep and then cooked for 35. So that’s not a 30 minute recipe. I think the book’s beauty is that nothing is hard – you don’t need huge skills for anything, so if you do have some skills, you can prep quickly. My main complaint so far is that his quantities of herbs are hilariously high. 1/2 cup of thyme? I’d spend all fucking day trimming leaves to get that.

Bob: Time to give up on Hunter Harvey?
Keith Law: Why? Not sure I understand the desire fans have to give up on players.

Lilith: Sammy Siani or Mike Siani? Who has better tools and who would you say ends up being the better prospect?
Keith Law: I haven’t scouted Sammy yet, but he’s local so I certainly will. Mike could really run and I think he can hit, but some doofus hitting guru decided to try to improve his launch angle and suddenly he was Mr. Popup.

Zach: Should the Reds be commending for trying to win (unlike half the league) and holding onto their top prospects, or criticized for giving up mid-level pieces to improve a team that still probably won’t make the playoffs?
Keith Law: Thrilled to see a team try to win, but I don’t think they’ve gotten good value for their prospects.

Traino: Biggest Oscar lock?
Keith Law: Roma for Best Foreign Language Film.

ergo08: Hi Keith, listening to Jade Bird right now! Thanks for all your great content including that hidden gem. She rocks. Is there such a thing as how a swing transitions from aluminum to wood? Or, does that not really matter? Also, Twenty one pilots – yea or nay? Thanks!!
Keith Law: There can be a difference for some hitters, depending on the swing path and the hitter’s hand/wrist strength. I hate Twentyone pilots with the fire of a billion suns.

Beetlejuice: Seems like Gray has a good chance of outperforming 4 yrs @ $38M. Did he sell himself too short or does he have serious questions on being a league avg pitcher going forwards?
Keith Law: He also has a good chance of getting hurt, or underperforming. I don’t blame him one bit.

Jordan: With Justin Dunn gone, which pitcher has the most upside in the Mets system? I am torn between Szapucki and Woods-Richardson.
Keith Law: SWR – started throwing harder once he stopped playing shortstop too.

CH: Mariano Rivera is a HoFer for sure, but has anyone else’s worst career moments ever been more overlooked and whitewashed than his? (Luis Gonzalez/Game 7 2001 WS, Dave Roberts/Game 5 2004 ALCS, Sandy Alomar/Game 4 ALDS 1997).
Keith Law: I’m having a hard time seeing the Gonzalez or Roberts moments as some terrible events we’d have to work to gloss over. Didn’t Gonzalez just chop one weakly up the middle?

Patrick: If there was no 10 max, how many people would have gotten your vote for HOF?
Keith Law: I said 14 in my column, IIRC.

Jackie: Jeter is the only “gimmie” on next year’s HOF ballot. Do you think Curt Schilling, the highest vote total among the non-elected, goes in as well? Perhaps the only American who needs to stay away from Twitter more than Trump …
Keith Law: I believe Jeter gets in, still think Walker can make a big move (with some sabermetrics support), and wonder if the changing electorate will hurt Schilling, who seemed from Ryan Thibodeaux’s work to get far more of his support from white, male writers than other candidates.

Justin R: Is next year finally going to be Max Kepler’s breakout?
Keith Law: I dreamed last night that Kepler was in the middle of a breakout season. Not even joking.

Justin R: What is stopping AOC from running for President and daring the Supreme Court to stop her? Absurd that her age disqualifies her but a racist reality show host in his 70s (with obvious signs of significant cognitive decline) can run.
Keith Law: On what grounds? The age requirement is in the Constitution. You can’t claim it’s unconstitutional.

Justin R: Can just one reporter ask Trump why we have to be nice to the little Covington bigots after what he did to the Central Park Five?
Keith Law: I think we both know the answer to that. White privilege is a hell of a drug.

Johnny: Is Eloy as ready as many are saying? What kind of an impact do you think he can make this season?
Keith Law: He was ready last summer.

Sean: Do you believe that Halladay would’ve been a first-ballot HOF regardless of his tragic passing?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t have been surprised at all if he’d fallen short, somewhere in the 60-65% range, and gotten in on year 2. His career wasn’t very long by HoF standards, and voters have been very hard on starting pitchers the last ten years.

Erik: Please tell me neither Green Book nor BR will win best
Keith Law: I’m betting on Roma. If you wanted to place an actual bet, since Roma is something like -1100, I’d go with the Favourite, which got Director and Screenplay nods. But Roma getting those two plus surprise nominations for two actresses says to me it might run the table.

Tom: Thoughts on Darwinzon Hernandez? Is his most likely future as a high-leverage reliever, or does he overcome his control issues and remain a starter?
Keith Law: Starter upside, long way to go to get there.

JIm: Keith, did you ever read any of Jasper FForde’s other books? I just finished the first book of his Nursery Crimes Division duology. A bit less compelling than the Thursday Next, but not bad at all.
Keith Law: I’ve read everything he’s written, and I preordered Early Riser already.

Larry: Hey Keith, I know you don’t like commenting on other lists, but Baseball America had Geraldo Perdomo ahead of Kristian Robinson in the Dbacks system. What do you think of Perdomo’s potential, and do you think he may be a better prospect than Robinson? Thank you!
Keith Law: I’ll just say I have Robinson a good bit higher than Perdomo.

Quicky the Fast: The Rangers appear committed to Gallo and Mazara in the outfield corners this year, which means no role for Willie Calhoun if Shin-Soo Choo is the DH. At this point, should Texas simply release Choo, or is there value in keeping him around?
Keith Law: Choo was worth 2.8 rWAR last year – releasing him now would be bonkers. At least see if he’s still capable of producing.

Taylor: Hey Keith, have you heard of a metal band called Nevermore? I just heard of them this week and they really kick ass!
Keith Law: Yes, but they’re defunct. That was Tim Calvert’s band after Forbidden, but he died last April.

Jackie: One thing about the Mariano 100% election — he was the unquestioned Best Player Ever at his position. There’s universal agreement that he’s the #1 closer of all time. When was the last time we had such a player on the ballot? Junior Griffey was a better ball player, but he wasn’t the best outfielder ever. That’s why I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeter isn’t a 100% vote next year — great player, but someone will say, “Yeah, but he was no Honus Wagner.”
Keith Law: And it shouldn’t matter. He gets a plaque regardless of his vote total.

Justin R: What was the worst movie you saw in 2018?
Keith Law: The Wife. Execrable, predictable, insulting claptrap.

Victor: Could you see Judge being a passage center fielder despite his size, a-la Bellinger?
Keith Law: No.

Aaron C.: Was it last year when an illness during “prospects writing season” hampered you? Do you feel it impacted the final product w/r/t phone calls, writing length, analysis that wouldn’t hamstring a healthy Klaw? (FWIW, that’s not a dig. I always love your sh t, sir.)
Keith Law: Three years ago. Worst illness I’ve had as an adult. It cost me some phone call time, but we also pushed the whole package back a week because I physically couldn’t work.

Jackie: For the record, I’m a huge Red Sox fan, and I’m OK with it if you hate our farm system. Looking pretty barren …
Keith Law: It’s weak, but not barren – they were as riddled with injuries as any system I can think of. Their recent drafts have been solid, and they have some big-time international FA prospects on the way. They could go 25 to 10 (I don’t have that finalized, this is just a general idea) in a year.

San Cristóbal D.R: Surprise no Yankees make BA top 100 list?
Keith Law: I’m not surprised, although I have more than zero.

Beetlejuice: To win the most games, you’re given the choice of taking 5 #3 starters or a #1, 2, 3, 4, 5. Regulation season win total only considered. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: the 1-2-3-4-5.

John : Any advice for furloughed government worker who isn’t getting paid ? How can I not be so angry at the president for a stinking wall?
Keith Law: You should be angry, and then do something about it, but first take care of yourself and your family. It’s fortunate that so many charities and businesses are trying to help – it just shouldn’t be necessary.

Sean: My guess is Harper and Machado both announce on Super Bowl Sunday. Isn’t that what A-Rod did a while back?
Keith Law: As a fan of polite trolling, I would endorse this wholeheartedly.

Matt: Can a player be removed from the Hall of Fame? Let’s say a member was convicted of murder for example.
Keith Law: Nope. Although you raise an interesting question: What if we have an OJ Simpson situation, a player on the ballot who is absolutely worthy on baseball grounds but who commits a crime that is beyond the pale? There are at least two players on the ballot now who were accused of domestic abuse (Bonds, during his career, by his wife Sun; Andruw, after his career, by his wife), and one accused of statutory rape (Clemens, who denied it). I know of one other who has an accusation that wasn’t public. I’m sure there are more. are there some crimes we can’t overlook? Does the character clause cover things after one’s career? I have no good answers.

Kyle Tucker : Do I replace Josh Reddick in June ?
Keith Law: Springer, Reddick, Brantley, Tucker, three outfield spots + DH.

Anuj: Is Ruiz and J. Gray for Realmuto too much, fair, or too little?
Keith Law: Too much, and the Dodgers are not trading for a terrible framing catcher.

Kevin : Are there any underrated minor-league prospects that come up and make an impact this summer ?
Keith Law: I’ll have a ranking of the top 20 prospects for 2019 impact up at the end of next week. As for “underrated,” if I think they’ll have an impact in 2019, then I won’t underrate them.

Justin R: Now that Edgar Martinez is (finally) in, does David Ortiz go in on the first ballot?
Keith Law: Yes.

JIm: Am I the only one who has the feeling that Trump came out of the SOTU fight looking like the more mature adult?
Keith Law: (looks around) Yep, you are indeed the only one.

Jake: Have you every played Diplomacy? If so, what did you think?
Keith Law: Yes. After the second time I killed someone for betraying me, I thought I should take a break.

Leandro: Heard you on BBTN today saying you think Helton is Hall-worthy at some point. Feel the same way about Larry Walker?
Keith Law: My ballot was public.

Jim: Keith – Do you think the sale of Fox (or part of Fox) to Disney will impact the regional sport channels and the next contracts some of the teams might get? I know the Fox interest in some, like YES, are already being discussed as available.
Keith Law: Disney wasn’t allowed to retain the RSNs (Fox Sports Paducah, etc.) by the Justice Department.

EC: Is there something that you wish readers of your prospect write ups would do or know? Like not assume gaps between ranks are uniform? Understanding positional value and scarcity? Taking a bit of time to understand how your methodology differs from other lists before coming at you? Reading the introduction?
Keith Law: Read the intro and calm down.

Todd: Shouldnt all Hall of Fame inductees have to get 100%? It should be a group of immortal players who no dibt are qualified
Keith Law: You must be fun at parties.

Patrick: going off what Mike said previously, in your opinion how come we’ve never seen a lefty catcher or why do you think it’s not taught more at a younger age?
Keith Law: If you can throw that well and you’re left-handed someone is putting you on a mound. There’s also the old belief that a LH catcher would be at a disadvantage throwing with more batters batting RH.

Chris: Brad Brach for 1/$3M is a steal. 2019 is the year of the market correction.
Keith Law: He was worth less than a win last year and relievers are volatile. It’s not like he should be getting $10 million.

Greg: Did you see all the awful Jays fans coming out of the woodwork to berate Halladay’s family for “clearly going against his wishes” to go into the hall has a Blue Jay? As if they somehow knew better than his wife, just based on one interview he gave. Just gross. Do you think it’s possible that his wife got some insight from Doc in non-interview form? Just maybe?
Keith Law: Yep. That Philly Inquirer column was worse. Someone wrote that he knew better than Halladay’s widow, and ignored Halladay’s own statements in 2016, and then at least one editor saw that and thought, “yeah, this is definitely a well-considered opinion and not something that will embarrass our entire newspaper.”

Kacey: Thoughts on AOC? Personally I’m in love. The type of politician I’ve always wanted.
Keith Law: I’m just enjoying the conservative obsession with her and how frequently she dunks on them on social media. That doesn’t make her a good or bad Congressperson, but it is very entertaining.

Todd: Yanks still have a good to really good farm system?
Keith Law: No, with trades and graduations it has declined, although they have this cluster of Latin American kids, all 19 and under, who have big potential with low probabilities.

Harrison: Do you see Nick Castellanos being dealt this offseason? If so, what type of return do you think he could bring in? Any chance at a Top 100 prospect?
Keith Law: They have no reason to keep him at this point, but should wait for a good offer – one top 100 guy, two guys who are close.

John: What’s the difference between this shutdown and the Obama shutdown besides political opinions on how much should go to the border wall? House republicans caved to Obama back then, are republicans wrong to expect the same from house democrats here?
Keith Law: I mean, what’s the difference between World War II and the Korean War besides the extermination of 6 million Jews?

Greg: Remember all those people saying Pelosi should step aside? Can you imagine anyone else handing Trump his lunch like that? You know he’s terrified of her when his nickname for her is… “Nancy.”
Keith Law: Trevor Noah made that joke. He calls a murderous dictator Rocket Man and calls Pelosi by her given name.

John: What do you think Jahmai Jones ends up as?
Keith Law: Solid average second baseman. Still have some hope for more – he hasn’t hit like I expected yet.

Ryan: I know this isnt a huge issue in the grand scheme of things but how do you feel about Halladay not going into the HOF without a Jays cap? I understand that was what his family decided but do you think players or their families should have input into this decision or should it be left up to the Hall entirely? Seems wrong that he isn’t going in as a Jay.
Keith Law: There’s no way I’m going against a widow’s wishes.

Ben Jammin: Do you think Dom Smith has some decent upside left? I think most any of the non-contending teams should be interested, as he can’t really be all that expensive.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes.

El Guapo: Thoughts on Julio Urias’ outlook? Is it 100% a health question going forward? The stuff looked to be back last fall but sample is so small… can he still be a no. 2 if everything works out? Or is that a pipe dream.
Keith Law: Uncharted waters. I know people keep asking me this, but we have so little history of pitchers having this surgery and returning that there isn’t a good answer.

drew: Keith, I’m missing your FA evaluations…how come they stopped after the first couple weeks of free agency? Can we expect them back?
Keith Law: Kind of busy writing up the prospect stuff.
Keith Law: I did write up the Gray trade though.

Jeff: Keith – I understand that the Reds only acquired 1 year of Gray from NYY, but it seems to me that they essentially agreed to a package and made it contingent upon Gray agreeing to an extension. Otherwise, they were just going to back out altogether. There was no “here’s what we’ll give you if he signs; here’s what we’ll give you if he doesn’t.” Is that more understandable/justifiable to you, or is it a distinction without a difference?
Keith Law: If they were willing to trade for his one year with the extension, then they should have been willing to trade for the one year without it.

Tyler: I am glad I do not have a vote. Your ballot was one of the better ones for sure. I would have left Rivera off and felt really bad about it. I had him between 8th and 13th on this ballot and knowing full well he was getting in would have used it on someone else. As bad as I feel for McGriff he is going to get in soon. Out of all the players who did not get 5% is there any who you wish you still had a chance to vote for?
Keith Law: Ever? Lou Whitaker.

Aaron G: The Gonzalez hit in the 2001 WS was a humpback liner that if Torre had played the IF at double play depth Jeter would have caught.
Keith Law: Right? I mean, yes, Rivera gave up the batted ball, but it’s not like it was crushed.

Marshall MN: KLaw are you going on a vacation now that your Top 100 work is wrapping up?
Keith Law: I will take a few days off in early February. Not sure if I’ll go somewhere or just chill at home.

cnp: You read 104 books last year…nice. I only hit 60 so just making my way through last years Top Books. If you haven’t read it, I thoroughly suggest Washington Black. Thought it was beautiful
Keith Law: Thank you, I will seek it out. Best new books I read were Lincoln in the Bardo, Exit West, From a Low and Quiet Sea, Sabrina, Killers of the Flower Moon, and Why We Sleep.

Ron: Keith – the hot take bait question these days seems to be, “is it immoral for our society to have billionaires?”. How would you answer that?
Keith Law: I wouldn’t; I’m not that concerned with morality in economics. I’ll take a system that feels ‘immoral’ if it means the economy is growing and the greatest possible number of people are getting all of their basic needs met.

Kacey: What’s the theory on gaining support for the HOF? Either you think someone is worthy or you don’t.
Keith Law: The crowded ballot and time to reconsider their qualifications.

Drew: Did you listen to any exceptional audiobooks last year that you’d recommend?
Keith Law: Killers of the Flower Moon.

Joe: Keith, knowing that you have finite time, would you ever see a movie that just looks good to you even if it got poor reviews?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jackie: Do you ever look at your posts to see how many clicks/responses they get? And does that affect what you later post, i.e., “Well, no one cared about my ‘Police Academy 9’ review, so I guess I won’t review any more Steve Guttenberg movies at Meadow Party.” Or are you … indifferent to the volume of response to your posts?
Keith Law: Sort of. I stopped doing music posts beyond the monthly playlists because people didn’t click much on album reviews or leave comments. But I review a lot of books or obscure movies that don’t get clicks, and I don’t mind that. The Top Chef reviews did pretty well, on the other hand, but took 3-4 hours (including time to watch), and I just can’t afford that.

Jeries: Can Nick Madrigal be a 4 WAR player if he hits zero home runs?
Keith Law: I think he’ll hit 5-8, and probably never see 4 WAR.

Thomas: Triston Casas should start the season in ….
Keith Law: I’d be fine sending him to Greenville.

Bob Pollard: Would you consider the Cardinals’ system “ridiculously prospect-rich”?
Keith Law: No, but it’s in the middle.

KillMonger: Thanks to you, I read Sabrina and absolutely loved it – powerful storytelling. On a random note – have you read Pale Fire? I’m on a Nabokov kick and I’m finishing up Pnin right now. His prose is HOF-level.
Keith Law: I did read Pale Fire and found it kind of annoying/frustrating. Too ‘inside baseball’ for me.

Querant: Is there any practical difference between getting an invite to major league training, and not getting an invite, for a player on a minor league deal? Do they get a larger stipend if they are invited to major league camp, better housing, etc.? Or is it just a matter of which clubhouse they go to each morning?
Keith Law: Better per diems and of course a chance to play in major league games, which means a chance to make the team or catch the attention of other teams.

Brent: Do you think Luis Gonzalez from CWS is an under the radar prospect worth keeping an eye on? Put up good numbers, though I think he’s old for his level, but does he have the potential to be a “prospect”?
Keith Law: He is a prospect. Wasn’t he just a second round pick?

Jake: As someone who is well to the right of you politically (but probably on the same page on baseball), can I apologize that my party nominated this moron and still stand behind him as he fucks everything up?
Keith Law: Yes, but if lots of people like you just move temporarily to the left, we can go back to our normal level of fucked-up as opposed to the current level of holy fucking shit we fucked this up.

Ian: You mean soon to be Academy Award Winning “The Wife”. Such a weird Oscar year.
Keith Law: I’m not sure. Colman could take it.

Todd: No cloud of PEDs on Ortiz’s ballot?
Keith Law: We remember what we choose to remember, and forget what it is convenient to forget.

Doug: Looking forward to your list next week. Also, I am glad the Dominican Series is over and Tatis won’t be able to break a finger just in case you keep him at #1.
Keith Law: He’s still #1 – that’s not news, since he was there in July.

el Guapo: On Tatis, obviously you are very high on him. Is it nitpicking to point out that he struck out at a 28% clip last year and that number didn’t come down even when he went on a tear (babip reliant)? Or is it just a 19 year old playing at a very advanced AA level and I need to get used to the fact that Ks are part of modern baseball. It’s worth noting for others (not sure I have seen you do this) making the Machado comp that Manny only K’ed at a 19% clip in AA at a similar age.
Keith Law: 28% isn’t that high today and he was, as you said, 19, exceptionally young for that level. And he’s a shortstop.

Drew: Are you planning to vote in the Democratic Primary? If so, will you take electability concerns into account, or are you going to vote for whomever you think would make do the job best if they win in the general?
Keith Law: Delaware’s primary is pretty late – April 26th in 2016 – so it may not matter at all.

Corey: Still thinking that the quickest way to end the shutdown is a mass TSA/air traffic controller sick-out. Not a strike as that’s illegal but if the global transportation system shuts down, gives the Traitor Turtle an out. This is purely about his ’20 re-election b/c of how tightly the KY GOP supports Dump.
Keith Law: I’d imagine many wealthy people who have supported the GOP on tax policies and the massive rollback of environmental and labor protections will be very unhappy if their flights are cancelled or delayed.

C: Is kikuchi a prospect or a veteran? How should a prospect be defined by a ranking service? Mlb experience or should age/professional (non minor league) experience effect if they are ranked in prospect rankings?
Keith Law: He played in a major league. He’s not a prospect. I do not rank NPB or KBO veterans.

Kurt: Are the Nats better this year than last? I’m not doing the, “better without Harper” thing…but if you had to guess, this roster will win more than 82 games, right?
Keith Law: Yes, they’re better. If they re-sign Harper after all, they’re the favorites in the East.

Jerry: Assuming no catastrophes (Bregman, Correa career-ending injuries, etc) how long do you think the Astros window of contention is open for?
Keith Law: I’d say another 4-5 years. The system is still above the median for me.

Justin R: How do you motivate yourself to write? I have outlined and planned novels for years but when it comes time to actually write a chapter, I freeze up.
Keith Law: Write something else first. Anything. A journal, a blog post, a letter to nobody. Then don’t stop – move right into writing your chapters.

John: I don’t know if you’ve read this, but I keep telling everyone. In the past election only 5% of americans voted for Trump or Hillary in the primaries. 5% of people decided the two people that could be our next president. VOTE IN PRIMARIES.
Keith Law: I hadn’t but it doesn’t surprise me. The Iowa Caucuses are the dumbest thing in our country’s dumb politics.

Kyle KS: What’s the reason behind the general lack of support for Rolen? Better hitter and defender than Vizquel but nowhere near the votes.
Keith Law: There’s a weird mythology around Vizquel from people who watched him and think they saw a much better defender than they actually saw.

Jim: How do you possibly deny that you are a leftist?
Keith Law: People call me a “leftist” because I think science is real, all people deserve equal treatment under the law, and we should base policies on evidence. Well slap my knee and call me Karl.
Keith Law: Thank you all for reading this week. The prospect package does indeed begin on Monday with the “just missed” list. I’ll chat next week to take your questions on the top 100, and then the farm rankings and org reports go up the following week. Thanks again and enjoy your weekends.

Starting at 1 pm ET. My top 100 prospects rankings are now up for ESPN+ subscribers. Farm systems rankings and individual team reports run next week.

Starting at 1 pm.

Keith Law: Klawchat. How can you run when you know?

Dante: Thoughts on the Nola extension? It seems this type of deal is becoming less common, but maybe they come back en vogue with FA now panning out well recently for even the best players.
Keith Law: Definitely less common – I think I said that on the BBTN podcast a few weeks ago? – so I’m glad to see it. I can’t imagine low-revenue teams have decided they’re willing to ride players out through arbitration without even trying to buy out a year or two of free agency. This current market slump is not sustainable, not with industry revenues where they are.

Aaron C.: As an African-American fan and father of a 15 y/o ballplayer, I feel this whole Kyler Murray thing quietly highlights how poorly MLB markets its sport and creates inclusive support structures for players of color. I cringe at the reported pitch the team of MLB officials made to Murray last month. Did they hand him one of those silly “Whole Squad Ready” spring training hoodies? Ugh.
Keith Law: Also, maybe pay minor leaguers a living wage. Maybe it doesn’t matter for Murray, who 1) will make a shit-ton more in the NFL draft and 2) may just prefer football, period, but it will matter to a lot of other players with that choice going forward.

Scott: How important is positional value in your prospect rankings? If Nico Hoerner was projected by the Cubs only as a second baseman instead of a SS, would he have been rated higher?
Keith Law: I have read this three times and I’m still not sure I understand it. I don’t care if the Cubs think Hoerner is a SS; my rankings are based on where I think Hoerner will play, and I don’t think he stays at shortstop. Plus moving from SS to 2B reduces a player’s value.

Richard: The Jays have collected a slew of prospects who seem more like depth guys or second-division regulars than real GUYS. Do any – like Kevin smith or Ronny Brito – have a chance to be more than that?
Keith Law: No, I don’t think so. Their prospects with a chance to be GUYS are the teenagers in short-season – the Orelvis, Hiraldo, Pardinho, Groshans group.

Aaron C.: I don’t mean to sneeze at the draft pick slot dollars, but the BEST thing the A’s could offer Kyler Murray to entice him to play professional baseball is…a chance to play amateur football. Has baseball lost the two-sport athlete for good?
Keith Law: Oh, sorry, meant to hit this earlier too. Again, a living wage for minor leaguers is the first answer. Baseball should also use the NFL’s refusal to admit its connection to CTE against the sport.

DH: social media fix: take away anonymity. If the gatekeepers verify their users (and people could turn off unverified users on their feed) it adds accountability. And that would remove most of the vitriol, and all of the bots and false identities.
Keith Law: I tend to agree – Twitter without anonymity would be a much safer, less irritating place – but we see it through the lens of a country with free speech and a free press (for now), whereas users in authoritarian countries who might wish to use the site to connect with other dissenters would have to stop using it.

Eric Dongenhagen: Any chance you kept up with Fangraph’s prospect week this week? I know in the past you say you don’t look at other lists but that you do respect the guys over there.
Keith Law: I looked at their top 100-something, but I’d also talked to Eric a few times in the previous two weeks so I knew some of the rankings already (and he knew mine before they were posted).

Dan: Harper this, Machado that.. what about Keuchel? First off, is his remaining unsigned about the same market factors arguably driving the situations for the other two? Or is it more about his performance? Very low strikeout rate for today’s game. Second, where does he likely end up? Back in Houston seems like a no-brainer, doesn’t it?
Keith Law: I wonder if there are concerns about his healthy history/prognosis.

guren: Are there any particular ingredients that will automatically cause you to order the dish when you see them on a menu? For me, it’s oysters, soft-shell crabs, and cilantro.
Keith Law: Duck. Beets (especially with goat cheese). House-made pasta, especially gnocchi. I would say 90% of the time if there’s a dark chocolate dessert on a menu, that’s what I’m ordering.

2020: Do you think Wander Franco’s the #1 prospect in baseball this time next year?
Keith Law: It’s the most likely outcome.

Mike: Not a question – Used your search bar here to see if you’d ever had a Ryan Adams song on a music update list in light of the recent NYT article. Ended up reading your entire “Best of the 2000’s” music list, which led me back to an album I hadn’t heard in over a decade – Doves – The Last Broadcast. I completely forgot how incredible this album is, and am already on a second spin through, perplexed how this hasn’t been a constant in my life. It will be now. Thanks for the reminder!
Keith Law: They’ve apparently reunited, too, although I’ll reserve judgment until i hear some music. Jimi’s solo album was a big disappointment.

Fuzzy Dunlop: Are you planning on going to see Witt in person at all? If you see him during the HS season, make sure it’s when he’s playing the team I coach so I can get the Twenty One Pilots playlist ready for you.
Keith Law: Yes, preferably before spring training, just to check him off the list. Texas HS teams start Tuesday.

Scott: Will you be visiting any spring training sites this year?
Keith Law: Yes, every year.

Mike: You give a lot of current music updates here, and I was curious if you ever uncover older stuff you either missed or misjudged initially? Do any stick out in your memory? Would love to see a list of songs/artists you missed, similar to your list of players you were wrong on. Thanks!
Keith Law: Yes, happens often, usually I hear something I don’t know, assume it’s new, and then find out it’s from some point in time when I wasn’t that into music. I didn’t hear the Electric Six’s debut album Fire until maybe ten years after it came out. Just missed it.

Mark: Have you ever considered doing a top 100 movie list in the same style as your book list ?
Keith Law: I tried to do one a few years ago, but realized I was missing so many ‘classic’ movies that the list seemed inherently incomplete.

Bob Loblaw: What are your thoughts on the Twins extending Polanco for 5 years in the wake of his 80 game PED suspension?
Keith Law: Are those connected?

Mark: Do you ever make Lasagna ? If so ,do you use a bechamel sauce ?
Keith Law: I don’t make it. I really haven’t eaten that style of pasta al forno – with tomato sauce and a lot of dairy, usually ricotta – in 15-20 years. It’s too heavy for me.

Doug: I’ve read in a few placed Nimmo played over his head last year but his plate skills look elite. Leading off for a decent Mets team is 100/15/15 with a 380 obp reasonable?
Keith Law: I don’t know what the slash line is. He can post a .380-.400 OBP vs RHP for sure.

Aaron C.: Any high school or collegiate talent in San Diego County worth keeping an eye on/watching play this spring?
Keith Law: Spencer Jones at La Costa Canyon is the best name I know out your way – same HS as Mickey Moniak. Don’t hold that against him.

Bob Uecker: What kind of performance do you think Keston Hiura can offer in his rookie season? A LeMahieu-esque line a reasonable projection for now?
Keith Law: God I hope he’s better than that.

TjF: James Kaprielian – officially another John Savage overuse casualty?
Keith Law: Although Savage overworked a lot of pitchers, I don’t recall him specifically overusing Kaprielian.

Chris: I’m curious if you read the interview in the Athletic with McGuirk and AA. It came across as remarkably condescending towards Braves fans. It’s almost like they’re upset the team won the division last year because it has increased pressure on them to keep it up when Liberty has debt to pay.
Keith Law: I haven’t read it.

Mark: I know you are a proponent of Lou Whitaker for the Hall. Do you feel Bobby Grich has a strong case as well ?
Keith Law: Very much so.

Rick: Apologies if you’ve covered this before, thoughts on the Reds off-season? As a fan I’m glad to seeing them going for it, even though the rational part of me says it’s too soon/they didn’t get enough to make the post-season. It doesn’t feel like they significantly impacted their farm system, and they could always flip a few of their acquisitions mid-season if the season goes haywire?
Keith Law: If the season goes haywire, it likely means their acquisitions flopped, which is the most likely outcome.

Ken: Guy whose music you like turns out to be (at minimum) manipulative jerk. Toss his albums and don’t look back?
Keith Law: Little easier for me since I only liked a few of his songs – it would be hard for me to say that to someone who, say, had a particular memory or emotional connection with certain tracks.

Rodney: Does Joe McCarthy have a future with the Rays? He seems ready to contribute at the major league level, assuming he stays healthy. Will he find a spot with the depth of young talent that team has?
Keith Law: Yes. Has to keep his back healthy and stop punching walls.

Nick: You’re an Econ guy, what’s the book say on what the Athletics do with Kyler Murray? If he plays football you lose a top 10 pick for no compensation but there has to be a limit on how much to increase their offer before there is no value surplus. What’s the value of that pick? 10 million? 15 million?
Keith Law: The pick is sunk. The question is whether Murray would be worth some enormous additional sum of money. I think the risk of no return there is high enough that he’s not.

Dave: Any soon to be released board games you’re looking forward to?
Keith Law: I already have the new Villainous expansion (which is also a standalone game) and liked it quite a bit. I have Wingspan too but haven’t cracked it yet. Same for Comanauts.

SeanE: Does KeBryan Hayes has what it takes to potentially make the switch to SS? He is clearly a plus plus defender at 3b and I know that does not always translate but wouldn’t his value be off the charts if he could hand the position?
Keith Law: No.

Henry: Keith, no question but just want to thank you for the outstanding write-ups on prospects and farm systems over the past few weeks. I could see the care and diligence you invested in it which was a product of great interviews and research. Well done!
Keith Law: Thank you. I’m glad you enjoyed them. I was happy with the outcome overall.

No one: Is it true you’re getting a divorce because you were unfaithful?
Keith Law: Well that’s a new one. No, it’s not true.
Keith Law: People are so weird.

Mark: Do you think the slow free agency is bad for the game? If so, do you have any ideas to fix it?
Keith Law: I think it’s terrible for the game, but I don’t think there is a quick or simple fix for it. I believe ultimately the league will need to guarantee some percentage of revenue goes to the players, like in the NBA.

Brad: The Rockies haven’t had a good catcher in years. Is it due to poor drafting, poor player development or something else?
Keith Law: A little bad luck, too. Murphy couldn’t stay healthy.

Joseph: Afternoon, what’s best case scenario for Dodger OF issues? Verdugo showcase for a trade?
Keith Law: Other than signing Harper? Trading one of the catchers for OF help. Verdugo’s trade value is very low right now.

john: detroit tigers question, is Funkhouser a sleeper prospect? overshadowed by Manning, Faedo, Mize
Keith Law: Has yet to have a full, healthy, effective season.

Quez: How did the Mets do this offseason? Will McNeil get regular ABs in the OF? Thoughts on Alonso?
Keith Law: Mixed bag this offseason. Did poorly in trades, well in free agency overall (other than Familia). Would like to see either Alonso or Smith get everyday AB at 1b – both are ready, and blocking either one with veterans is counterproductive.

Mark: There seems to be a lot of criticism of owners/front offices not wanting to spend, but do players get any blame for free agency too? It seems like Machado and Harper “not wanting to sign first” could be holding up many other dominos from falling.
Keith Law: I don’t believe that’s true.

Alex: What was your favorite part of living in Pittsburgh when you attended CMU, and which area did you live in?
Keith Law: Shadyside. My favorite part was leaving each May because the gray winters killed me. I had no idea that was a thing at the time, but now I know (and have a light box right here next to me).

Grant: When you talk about how front offices hire people that know coding, what do you mean? Python?
Keith Law: That’s a nice place to start but teams are hiring people with advanced degrees in computer science & related fields.

John: If you had to guess, where will the Rays and A’s be in their stadium searches a year from now?
Keith Law: Exactly where they are now.
Keith Law: Sorry, had to go get the Samoas.

War biscuit : What have you heard on Will Holland and are you gonna go to auburn again to scout him?
Keith Law: doubt I’ll go to Auburn – more likely I’ll see him on the road against a potential first rounder.

Nick: Feel like the market is ripe For a team to get real creative to try and land Machado or Harper. Something like 9 years 300 million (110m over first 3 years) and player opt outs every season after year 3). The player could pocket 9 figures and still hit free agency in their 20’s, or essentially go year by after that for $32m a year and wait til they come off an MVP type year and then hit free agency again. Don’t think a contender would complain of 3-6 years of their prime if they walked at any point.
Keith Law: Agreed.

Quinn : Vlad Jr.’s wRC+ was 70 points greater then Tatis’ in AA last year. So, when you put Tatis above Vlad Jr. in your top prospects ranking is it because the difference in defensive ability really is that great or because you expect to improve comparatively more then Vlad Jr.?
Keith Law: wRC+ is utterly useless for prospect evaluation. So that’s your first problem. The differences are position, defensive value, baserunning, physical projection, and probability of improvement.

AGirlHasNoName: Am I wrong that a team made up of the remaining free agents could win 90 games?More even? Certainly more than the Marlins, right?
Keith Law: I can’t be the only one who thinks if the free agents wanted to they could put together a baseball team and dominate the troops.

LD: A few weeks ago, you tweeted that you were giving your daughter guitar lessons. How are you going about it? Is there a set time weekly? Nylon vs. steel string guitar? Hoping to start doing the same with my kids soon… Many thanks for all your writing and thinking.
Keith Law: Steel strings. I hate the sound of nylon, and it’s not going to sound like what she wants it to sound like (for pop songs). I haven’t pushed her at all – when she wants to practice, we practice.

Chris: Hi Keith, I was surprised Moises Gomez, wasn’t mentioned in the Rays write-up. Are there defensive or approach concerns that limit his upside?
Keith Law: Massive approach concerns.

SeanE: Adam Frazier still a utility guy in your mind or can he hit enough at 2b to cover for the below average defense. Or should they just give the job to Kramer and see what he can do?
Keith Law: Utility guy.

Alex Anthopoulos: What’s the one big move I can make, either now or in July, that would push the Braves from the 85-90 win range to actual world series contenders?
Keith Law: Signing Harper, certainly. I don’t see Liberty doing that.
Keith Law: Also, aren’t you Cobb County taxpayers glad you built the team that stadium to line Liberty’s coffers? Much better than funding schools or improving your roads or employing more first responders.

Tom: Why wasn’t Daulton Varsho on your list of D-backs prospects? What do you think his ceiling is?
Keith Law: He was on there.

Guest: I know you dont like to speculate – but do you think there has been collusion among owners or just a bad CBA?
Keith Law: I could never prove collusion, but teams all deciding to hold the line on spending at once is an awfully large coincidence.

JP: Would it be a good idea to let Tanner Houck break into MLB in the bullpen? I’m oddly optimistic of the young gun bullpen with Mata, Feltman, Lakins.
Keith Law: Yes. I still think it’s the most likely outcome for him but he did show more than I expected as a starter in the last 2/3 of 2018.

Zach: Amazon pulls out of NYC. Oh no, now who can we give billions in tax breaks to?
Keith Law: Right? don’t let the door hit you on your way out through the Holland Tunnel at 15 mph.

Dan: How big of a concern is Victor Robles’ exit velo? He’s in Tony Kemp territory in both of his MLB stints.
Keith Law: Tiny sample size.

Gabriel: Considering that I don’t think draft pick trading will happen anytime soon, do you think draft pick swaps would be an easier sell? They could limit it to the same round and get rid of the “small market teams will just sell their picks to the large market team” debate
Keith Law: The reason I don’t believe it’ll happen is that neither side has any real incentive to push for it. CBA changes involve a gain for one side or the other, and each side pushes ideas to the center of the table that will benefit them. Nobody clearly benefits from trading of draft picks, not enough for either side to push for it.

Tom: What are your critiques of Spider-verse beyond it being silly and derivative? I usually agree with your movie reviews, but I thought that movie was very well done
Keith Law: The whole film relied way too much on violence to solve every problem. Fine in a big superhero movie, not fine in an animated movie aimed at kids.

Nacho: Curious about Nolan Watson, 1st rounder few years back for Royals. Do you see any future for him, as either reliever or sp? Thanks!
Keith Law: Non-prospect.
Keith Law: Saw him last year, FYI.

Matt: Considering their relatively young age and the fact that they should be in their primes for several more years do you think a team should try to sign Machado or Harper even if they don’t plan on competing until say 2020 or 2021?
Keith Law: Yes, I think that’s reasonable, especially for a team looking to compete in 2020. And then maybe you sell a bunch more tickets in 2019, or pick up more stadium revenue from ads and suites and sponsorships, so you can go buy another big piece in a year.

Rob: Out of curiosity, non Tatis division, who is your *favorite* Padres prospect? The one you hope most hits his potential because you want to watch that career?
Keith Law: I love watching Tirso Ornelas hit. It’s just a great, great swing.

Tony B: Wait photographic memory isn’t real?
Keith Law: No. People who claim to have eidetic memories may have very good memories, but will still make mistakes on details and even fabricate such details when asked to recall images or scenes.

Chris P: Anyone show up to camp in the “best shape of their life” yet?
Keith Law: I just got back from the gym! then I ate three samoas.

Reader: How do we as fans reconcile different prospect lists having different pitches for the same pitcher, especially when it comes to breaking balls?
Keith Law: I don’t think it matters that much when it’s CB vs SL. They function the same way, and often one of us will be going off what the pitcher calls it and another writer will go off what it looks like from the hitter’s perspective. It would matter if we were talking about confusing a changeup for one of those pitches, because they serve different purposes. Similarly I don’t really care if we call a pitch a cutter or slider – I care how it works.

Sam: I muted Trump on twitter and my quality of life has improved drastically. I would recommend this to anyone, however by muting him is that the equivalent of burying my head in the sand? I don’t want to be ignorant of his lies and vitriol, but at the same time I like it when my blood doesn’t boil
Keith Law: If you want to know what he said, there are plenty of places to read about it. I find his tweets infuriating, but they don’t set policy, and he could drop the n-word and his adherents wouldn’t blink, so what’s the point in listening?

Grant: Keith, have you read The Woman in The Window, or read the recent articles about the author, Dan Mallory (A.J. Finn)? If you have, I’m curious what your thoughts are. Thanks.
Keith Law: I haven’t and don’t plan to, especially not after the story this morning that accused him of plagiarizing large portions of the novel.

Chris: With Michael King on the Yankees being shut down for at least 3 weeks with an elbow injury after ‘feeling pain’, this significantly hurts his chances of being an option in 2019 for the Yankees, doesn’t it? Seems ominous
Keith Law: Just a bullpen piece anyway. Not something to worry about.

Keith: Are the differences in Madrigal’s rankings across multiple lists simply a difference of opinion on his future power, or are there other skills/issues in question as well?
Keith Law: I don’t know. I can only tell you why he didn’t make my list.

Eric: Hi Keith. I just want to remind people to Vaccinate Your Kids and stop giving attention to those dolts who say otherwise.
Keith Law: Yep. And call your legislators to demand they eliminate all non-medical exemptions for children who wish to attend school.

Noah: Jasson Dominguez apparently is going to sign with the Yankees for their whole bonus pool. Any thoughts on him/what have you heard?
Keith Law: Ask me in July if and when he signs.
Keith Law: I don’t even bother tracking those guys now. Plus Kevin Maitan was supposed to be the best July 2nd guy since Sano and he’s barely a prospect 2.5 years later.

Andy: How much impact did Kolby Allard’s 8 bad innings for Atlanta have on his stock? He was terrific in AAA in his age 20 season but his stock has seemingly plummeted (as has his velo, I understand).
Keith Law: The stuff matters, the 8 innings don’t. Teams are smarter than that now.

Alex: Will baseball (and/or the other major sports leagues) ever realize that incentivizing teams to lose in order to get the best amateur talent via the draft is a really bad way to get fans excited about your product? Why would I shell out ticket money to see my local team try to lose 120 times?
Keith Law: I do think the next CBA will alter the top of the draft somehow. Maybe a lottery for the top ten picks. Maybe a modified free agent pool for the same top ten picks. Maybe reverse order of finish for non-playoff teams – so the team with the best record that misses the playoffs picks first.

Mark: When will you have 2019 draft coverage up?
Keith Law: Hoping to do a preseason top 30 by next Friday.

Ethan: Not a question, but, enjoyed your review of High Flying Bird. I enjoyed it a bit more than you but generally agree with your takeaway that it’s worth a watch more for the ideas and arguments it introduces than for the way it presents them.
Keith Law: I’ve recommended it to a lot of people in the industry for that reason. A good film, not a great one, but hits a lot of key issues for us as baseball fans.

Dan: I know you’ve professed to care not a whit for the other major American sports, but have you tried to get into world football/soccer at all?
Keith Law: I’ll root for Italy in the World Cup but that’s about it. Forza Azzurri!

guren: Would Curt Schilling get your Hall of Fame vote on a binary ballot?
Keith Law: No.

Dr. Bob: Negotiations are a two-way street. Is there a chance that the top FAs are getting several terrific offers and the players are just turning them down?
Keith Law: I feel like we’d have heard about one of them if that had happened.

Todd: Yankees Domingo Avevedo have any future in the bigs? Hes already 24 and hasnt been promoted up
Keith Law: Reliever. Might be a good one.

Andrew: As a microbiologist, I can’t thank you enough for all that you do in promoting vaccine safety and squashing trolls. It’s always great when somebody with as large of a following as you do stands up for what is right (and scientifically proven). It’s incredibly frustrating when the deniers seem to put more stock in the claims who have no scientific background (reminds me of a certain group reveling in electing a president with no experience or qualifications whatsoever).
Keith Law: You’re welcome. I feel like my platform, modest as it is, is a responsibility, and using it to remind people that science is real seems like a good use of it.

Tim: Does Boras take a credibility hit over the Murray situation? He had to rep to the A’s Murray was fully committed to playing baseball for them to have picked him where they did and agree he could still play football. Is his word any less valuable with teams goin forward?
Keith Law: Doubt it. Not sure why you’d pin this on Boras when the kid changed his mind after having an out-of-nowhere fall season on the gridiron.

Todd: You still believe or think Luis Medina can garner command?
Keith Law: I think it’s possible. Delivery and athleticism are there. But it’s a long way to average.

JP: Breakout player column coming this month or March?
Keith Law: That column is always in late March.

john: curious, are you an actual fan of any team, or just an observer?
Keith Law: Haven’t been a fan of any team since I left the Blue Jays. Can’t be in this job.

The Darkness: Can a healthy Kyle Lewis jump back into the top 100?
Keith Law: Unlikely, but not impossible. Lot of missed development time there.

US Grant: Who do you like in the Democratic primary at this early stage?
Keith Law: I don’t. I really just can’t at this point – too much posturing, too little discussion of policy. And way too much discussion of bullshit like likeability.

Steve: Why is Roma going to win best picture? This is the exact reason why no one watches the Oscars anymore
Keith Law: Because it was the best picture? If *that* is your complaint about the Oscars, we are not going to line up very well.

Jerry: RE: Musicians who turned out to be jerks (and worse). I’m a child of the 70s and 80s. I destroyed my Nugent and KISS CDs when I found out what kind of disgusting POS’s Nugent and Gene Simmons were.
Keith Law: Nugent is one I never understood because his music always sucked. So people overlooked him marrying an underage girl so he could legally sleep with her, which is gross no matter what music he makes, but I particularly can’t understand people stanning for him when the music is crap.

Colin: Seriously – how upset/jealous are you that Gritty doesn’t belong to MLB
Keith Law: He’s great. Very jealous.

Pat D: Regarding Trump’s tweet that referenced The Trail of Tears, do you think he actually knows what it was, our just that his hero Jackson caused it?
Keith Law: 100% that he knows what it is.

Brett: Hi Keith. With every news organization/channel slanted either left or right (how much of slant varies by network), do you think there is a strong appetite in this country for a truly unbiased news channel that is 100% committed to factual news only. Take 100% of opinions out of things and only sticks to facts. I bet, if done right, with out current political climate, it would be the most watched news channel within one year.
Keith Law: Well, I don’t agree that “every news organization” is slanted, and I definitely don’t believe that purely unbiased facts-only news would sell.

Mac: I read Ashe Russell is going to try and make a comeback. Great if he can but unfortunately have to think the odds are pretty low.
Keith Law: Almost nobody comes back from the yips and his case was severe.

Jimbo: Chances are nobody makes a Juan Soto type rise, but who is your pick to shoot up the ranks this year?
Keith Law: People ask this sort of question regularly but I answered it – every team has at least one prospect I’ve tabbed as a ‘sleeper’ to make a big jump in 2019.

Bobba: Do you think Harper and Machado are reluctant to commit to Philly because each would prefer to play somewhere else if the money is even somewhat similar? Given ownership’s ludicrous statement at the beginning of the process about going “stupid,” it sure seems like the agents could get some pretty good numbers out of Klentak and the Phillies by now. I just don’t think it’s either player’s first choice destination…
Keith Law: Don’t believe that for a second either. Good city, fans will show up when the team wins, they’re competitive now. What’s not to like?

Rueben: Was Jacob Degrom ever a top 100 prospect back when he was a prospect?
Keith Law: No. Made my Mets top 10 one year (for which I got grief from Mets fans for having him over … Hansel Robles, maybe?) but that was it.

Chris: Speaking of the psychotic anti-vaxxers, did you hear up here in Maine they slipped false vaxx side effect flyers w federal and state CDC emblems on them into kids products at Wal Mart? Atrocious.
Keith Law: I did. I’d like to see the people involved prosecuted … that sounds like terrorism to me.

Jeries: Who do you like more at this point: Reynaldo Lopez or Lucas Giolito?
Keith Law: Giolito.

Jim: Do you read true crime books? If so, any recommendations?
Keith Law: I don’t, sorry.

Jeff: Do you have any confidence that Domingo German can still be an effective starter for the Yankees? He has shown spurts of dominance, but obviously has been very inconsistent.
Keith Law: No, never thought he was a starter.

Rueben: No one watches the Oscars or Steve doesn’t watch the oscars?
Keith Law: Lot of that. “Nobody does X” usually means “I don’t do X.”

Rob K: It seems like the problem with the past two off seasons is that profitability is no longer correlated to winning, at least in the short term. Maybe it never was but owners cared less about profit. I don’t know. Do you see any realistic rule changes to incentivize winning? I for one would love to see publicly traded companies disallowed from owning a majority stake in a team.
Keith Law: That is largely true due to leaguewide revenues from MLBAM, and revenue sharing, but I don’t know if that’s necessarily true in the long term – there was a large windfall in there from the sale to Disney.

Desperate Os Fan: When did you stop beating your wife? (Rehtorical. This phrase popped in my head when they guy asked you about being unfaithful. Worth a Google if you have no idea what I’m talking about)
Keith Law: That came to my mind too. Which always reminds me of the awful ‘joke’ a reporter told about Wes Gardner in the ’80s when he was accused of beating his wife – you could google it, but it is offensive – and how no one at the time seemed to realize why the joke wasn’t funny.

DH: Re: social media fix. I agree that we want dissenters in authoritarian countries to have a voice. Problem is, authoritarians have figured out the game and flood the zone with bs so the truth is drowned out. These platforms have a responsibility.
Keith Law: Hang on, Jack will be right with you after he finishes polishing Candace Owens’ shoes.

AZ: Who do you think should win Best Actress among those nominated? My pick would be Gaga
Keith Law: In order of the five nominated, I would go Colman, Gaga, Aparicio, (gap), McCarthy, Close. I thought Rosamund Pike deserved a nomination for A Private War.

Ken Lay: Did you ever like Pantera? I loved them in high school…..that hasn’t aged well. And in hindsight, there were plenty of signs in the 90s that I overlooked as well.
Keith Law: Never a fan … their influence exceeded the appeal of their music.

Ryan: I’m a big fan of Alek Thomas, but your report is the first I have read that he may have 25 or more home run power, which is fantastic. He sounds like a potential star in the making. Do you expect to see him on the top 100 next year? Thank you!
Keith Law: I do, assuming he does what I think he’ll do in full-season ball.

HugoZ: The stadium is costing Cobb County taxpayers a net of around 5 million in a budget of 405 million. You really think it’s the biggest part of their budget problems?
Keith Law: Did I say it was the biggest part of their budget problems? I don’t think I did. I do think $5 million pays a lot of ‘loser teachers,’ though.

Ken : ever a fan of the band Cinderella?
Keith Law: Yeah, guilty. One of my favorites during the hair-metal halcyon days.

AGirlHasNoName: St Louis really is boring, right?
Keith Law: That whole meme has cracked me up because it is probably my least favorite city to visit among the 26 MLB metro areas. Not a great food scene, not a lot to do, and on a personal level not many people I know in the area.

Andrew: Are you an advocate of moving the pitching mound back?
Keith Law: Aw hell no.

Hank: Re: Nugent: He didn’t marry her, he became her legal guardian! Even grosser.
Keith Law: Oh god that’s right. And her parents signed off on it! I’m sure that was all legal and cool.

JP: Rather have Devers or Andujar for the next 5 years?
Keith Law: Devers.

Ryan: Just from reading your report on Chisholm, you seem really high on the hit tool. Are you at all concerned about the strikeout rate? Thank you!
Keith Law: I am not.

Marques: I’m half black, your candor on race motivating our current political positions gives me hope that some white people can hear the blaring dog horn. Thank you. Do you think the others really can’t hear it or are that many people cool with it?
Keith Law: I think many people who look like me and grew up like me are fine just ignoring the dog whistles and fog horns of modern racism because it doesn’t touch their daily lives. I’m hopeful enough people hear them to snuff out this rising tide of white nationalism before it becomes entrenched in Congress like it has in many European legislatures.

Bobba: Nick Pivetta improved his control to the point he shaved a full point off his walk rate, but he still gives of a lot of hard hit balls. Does he take another step forward this season?
Keith Law: Not without a better pitch for LHB.

Brett : O/U Games played in the bigs this year for Byron Buxton: 130
Keith Law: I’ll take the over.

Garrett: What is your max spend on restaurant dining? French Laundry levels?
Keith Law: That’s like $200something a person, right? I’ve done that once in my life. I have bought dinner for friends where I paid $200 for the two of us.

JP: T/F: Troy Tulowitski
Keith Law: F.
Keith Law: Although that would make him Froy Fulowifzki, I guess.

Gabe: Wouldn’t pick trading or swapping be a better marketing tool than bringing in Kyler Murray? I mean hell I’d be excited to watch you go on TV to talk about how you saw say both Dombrowski and Cashman at a game for the perceived #1 pick. Now that would be must watch TV
Keith Law: Yes, and it would make the draft better to watch, too. Don’t we all remember David Stern saying “there has been a trade…” for the Chris Webber/Penny Hardaway deal on draft night? (Bet you didn’t think I’d pull that reference out.)

Eric: Hey (white) people, stop saying “I don’t see color.” It’s a stupid trope that’s insincere and untrue. It is 100 percent OK to admit you do see color. It is not OK to dismiss what those of color are saying affects them, though.
Keith Law: It’s also impossible to not see color.

JP: Rank ‘em: Sopranos, The Wire, Breaking Bad, The Americans
Keith Law: The only show on that list I’ve watched for even two seasons is The Wire.

Fan boy : Thoughts on the potential 3 batter minimum rule?
Keith Law: I was good with two. I’d also like to see managers required to designate five relievers as ‘active’ for each game, and only able to use other pitchers if the game goes extra innings (or perhaps if the starter is injured early?).

Tim A: Most likely bust from 2018 MLB draft??
Keith Law: Too soon for that. I hate that term, BTW. You’d have to be bad for a long time before I hang that word on you.

Jake: What’s the logic behind no vaccination? I know they don’t cause autism, but even if you believe that was a possible risk, is autism worse than polio, brain damage, death, etc.?
Keith Law: That’s their belief – or that vaccines cause other ailments. It’s all bullshit, fomented by people who are seriously delusional or who want to sell you panaceas.

Pat: I always Cinderella after Night Songs & Tesla as more “blues” type bands than hair metal.
Keith Law: That’s why I liked their style and Whitesnake’s more than the pop-oriented acts like Poison or Winger. All horribly dated now, and I assume most of them have died from particulate matter clogging their alveoli, but at the time that was what we had.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all, as always, for reading, for your questions, and for all of the kind words about my work on the prospect rankings. I may have to move the chat day next week if I do travel to see some draft players, so look for an announcement on Twitter/Facebook/Instagram. Happy Valentine’s Day and have a great holiday weekend.

My review of the digital version of the board game Evolution is up at Ars Technica, and my review of the Kennerspiel des Jahres-winning game The Quacks of Quedlinburg is up at Paste.

Keith Law: Nature is a language – can’t you read? Klawchat.
Keith Law: (There’s your Obscure Music Quote.)

Arnold: Jays GM Ross Atkins says Vlad Jr. is not ready for the majors. He’s just trying to justify keeping him from being a Super 2 arbitration player right? He can’t be that stupid?
Keith Law: He’s not stupid, but he is too voluble. The less said, the better. Now, he’s denigrated his own player and insulted the intelligence of the fan base, to no benefit. They’re holding Vlad down to delay free agency (not Super 2 – I can’t imagine he’s in AAA *that* long), but can’t say so, so just say as little as possible.

TjF: If you were determined to get a deal done with Bryce and you felt like you had to do shorter term at high value (read: the Dodgers), would you be willing to give a 2 year opt out? Put another way – is it worth losing the pick to pay Bryce 40mm for 2 years?
Keith Law: Interesting idea, although I’d probably want to push the opt out at least one year further out, because he’s had some injury history, and I’d rather roll the dice on 2 healthy years in 3 than 2 in 2.

TjF: Is it me or does Vlad Jr look like he packed on a few extra this winter? I’m not judging, just seems like DH is going to happen sooner rather than later
Keith Law: I thought he looked as heavy as he did in the AFL, which would also point to a DH future.

Kid Koala: Your game reviews and thoughts on physical games are one of the reasons I love coming here. Just wondering if you’ve ever played Fortnite and what you think of it. Also about to be a parent and wonder about how to introduce screen games to a child. Any advice?
Keith Law: Glad you enjoy those reviews – I have not played Fortnite.

Jackson (Oakland, CA): Keith, the Cardinals advised Dakota Hudson that he should stretch out as a starter. Can you share what you believe he’ll need to work on to be effective in that role? Or would be be best suited for the bullpen, moving forward?
Keith Law: Between arm issues and lack of a good second pitch beyond the cutter, he seems better suited to the bullpen.

Oscar Madisbum: Judging from what you’e seen over the years, is it better for a team to use all your IFA money to sign one presumed 50+ player like Jasson Dominguez (supposedly going to the Yankees) or to spread the money around given how young these guys are? Thanks
Keith Law: I’d spread the money around. I haven’t seen Dominguez, but I’ve heard he’s the best player in the class but carries substantial risk factors.

Chris (Willow Spring, NC): Hi Keith – First of all, I love your minor league content, trade analysis, etc. it is the primary reason for my ESPN Insider subscription. Of the top Braves pitching prospects on the cusp of the majors, would any be best suited to a bullpen role?
Keith Law: I think any could go to the pen to develop/limit innings, but I’m not sure any would be better suited to relief than starting among the top tier. Maybe Soroka if he just can’t stay healthy in the rotation but it’s too soon for that.
Keith Law: FYI, this chat is brought to you by Trader Joe’s 73% Belgian Dark Chocolate Non-Pareils, by which I mean I bought them and am eating them while I chat.

Gavin: Regarding a nation minimum wage….do politicians really think a uniform national rate is practical? Do they not realize that it costs a lot more to live in San Francisco than it does in Rapid City? Shouldn’t this issue be one that is decided on a local level, where governments can determine a rate that meshes with the local cost of living? If the federal government is going to establish one national rate to get people in major cities to a living wage for menial work, I am moving to a small midwestern town to cook burgers at McD’s for $40 an hour.
Keith Law: Sure they realize that. Has anyone proposed a national minimum wage of $40/hour? That feels like a straw man. And nothing would stop San Francisco from mandating a higher minimum wage than the federal one. If you want to encourage people to work, it would seem that a higher wage would provide a strong incentive, no?

Tristan: Is Chris Paddack the Padres’ best starter at the end of 2019? Or do you think Lucchesi can get to another level with two pitches?
Keith Law: Paddack as the best starter in their rotation by 9/30? Sure, I’ll buy that. Don’t think Lucchesi has another level.

Nate in Seattle: Klaw, wondering your take on Marwin’s infield defense, which UZR doesn’t like. If he played 2b for a full season, would it rate as average or above average?
Keith Law: I’ll guess average but with the strong caveat that I can’t remember the last time I really watched him play 2b.
Keith Law: Or anywhere but the outfield, really.

Tristan: So it looks like Scott Kingery will start the season without a set position again. Do you think the Phils are messing with his potential by moving him around so much?
Keith Law: Yes, not a fan of doing that to young players.

TjF: Don’t want to discriminate guys based on size and handedness, but is someone really going to burn a top 5 draft pick on a 6 foot R/R first baseman?
Keith Law: Vaughn? His performance last year – against weak Pac 12 pitching – was remarkable, enough that I’m consistently hearing he’s a top 5 pick right now.

E-Rod: He might never be a 200 IP guy, but could Eduardo Rodriguez still develop into a #1 or #2 in your view? Still a lot of positives in the profile, he’s still young, and his arm’s never been hurt (even though the lower body has). Feels like he’s sometimes the forgotten man in that BoSox rotation…
Keith Law: Always been a fan. Must stay healthy, still hoping he’ll find a good enough slider to give him that missing element.

Aaron C.: People *very seriously* replying to you that the NFL uses “N/8” for ease of comparative measurement (re: Kyler Murray) makes me sad for, like, humanity.
Keith Law: If you can’t compare 3/8 and 1/2 in your head, how do you manage to get out of the house without garroting yourself on your own shoelaces?

Aaron C.: When you scout Arizona in the spring, do you (a) hit up all 15(?) camps; (b) only scout pre-determined list of players; (c) select the team/players based on good restaurant proximity?
Keith Law: Target players. Plenty of time to get from an afternoon game to a good restaurant.
Keith Law: BTW, Roland’s Market in Phoenix closed, rather suddenly, last week. Just some news for folks headed out there who might have wanted to visit based on my recommendations. It’s going to become a larger, second location of Pane Bianco.

Matt: If someone like Ben Shapiro or Candace Owens ever engaged you on a retweet or a comment you made regarding one of their posts or ‘thoughts’, would you engage them? With that in mind… has that ever happened to you?
Keith Law: It hasn’t, but the main reason I might demur would be the volume of replies I’d get from their adherents. I do use Twitter to communicate with all of you – well, some of you – and that might make it unusable.

Moe Mentum: Rank the following six retired 2nd basemen (primarily) in terms of their worthiness for Cooperstown: Bobby Grich, Jeff Kent, Willie Randolph, Chase Utley, Lou Whitaker, Frank White.
Keith Law: Whitaker, Grich, Utley, Randolph, Kent, White.

Moe Mentum: College tuition payments are an investment rather than an expense, right? But how should we measure the return on our investment? It’s not just starting salary upon graduation, but how else should (can?) we quantify the benefits, especially compared to other schools?
Keith Law: Are they an investment? I’m not sure the tuition for four years at a private university has a good enough ROI to quality. The tuition for the same degree at a public university might be the investment; the marginal cost of a typical private university would be an expense.

David: What is your opinion on the Francona’s son vs Kapler issue?
Keith Law: That is a personal matter and I don’t see how or why I would get involved.

Jesse B: How good of hitter was Michael Lorenzen coming out of college?
Keith Law: Not good at all.

John: Thoughts on Miles Mikolas extension?
Keith Law: Could be great if 2018 was real. Surprising commitment based on one year of performance, although his underlying numbers were all pretty positive.

Robert: Adley feels like a pretty solid #1 talent. Better than recent years but perhaps not generational. How do you think he stacks up talent wise to recent 1s?
Keith Law: I’ll see him in a few weeks, but I feel like he’s below the last couple of 1-1 picks.

Aaron C.: Previously, you’ve stated you’re “in” on Matt Chapman and “out” on Franklin Barreto from a growth/development standpoint. Standing pat on Matt Olson? Is this kind of…all there is? (Which is fine…I guess.)
Keith Law: He’s fine. Would be surprised if there’s more bat there, and I think his glove isn’t quite as good as his reputation.

Robert: Do you have any hope Quantril will see his stuff return? What if he ditched the breaker and became similar to Paddack if less command. Could he start?
Keith Law: Needs more stuff, period. Nothing like Paddack, unfortunately.

Jeremiah: Hey Keith…love your work. Where do you think the Padres start Tatis jr this year…double aa or triple aaa? Thx
Keith Law: Triple-A. Already has more than 4 months at AA.

JT: *Last year* was the delay in Vladdy’s service time. This year is cruel and unusual.
Keith Law: Agreed. He should have been up in May or at worst June. I said on the BBTN podcast today that if MLB had an incentive for noncontending teams to win now – such as better draft position, more international money, or increased revenue sharing – he would have been up.

DaveAlden53: In looking at prospect listings from various sources, there seems to be more variation between than in past years. I’m not going to ask why you’re higher or lower on particular players. (I’m married so don’t need any more snark.) But will instead ask whether you think increased data (launch angle, exit velo, spin rate), new focus on mechanical changes (DriveLine, etc.), and evolving analytical tools (DRC+, etc.) is causing a divergence of opinions.
Keith Law: Maybe? I use what the teams use, to the extent that I’m able. Never heard a team mention DRC+, for example, but spin rate, exit velo, extension come up quite often.

Robert: How far behind is Luis Campusano from a guy like Melendez?
Keith Law: I think I’d have Campusano ahead of Melendez. Did I rank them the other way somewhere?

Josh: Do you think the A’s will offer Kyler Murray an MLB contract over and above what he would get in the NFL Draft, like Rosenthal suggested? Seems like all of Murray’s actions have provided great leverage, but at the end of the day the money talks. If you offered him $35mm over 7 years, he’d bank that before theoretically hitting arbitration (4 option years and 3 pre-arb provided the CBA remains largely the same).
Keith Law: If I’m the A’s I just walk away. He’s not interested in baseball. Don’t throw good money after bad.

Jen Carroll: Keith – have you followed the rather precipitous fall of Mike Isabella’s empire? The Post did a pretty lurid look at his gross behavior that should be of no surprise to anyone who watched him on Top Chef (“no offense, but a girl shouldn’t beat me!”, even if she’s freakin’ Eric Ripert’s Chef de Cuisine, you tool?). But even with all that, I’m a little shocked at how quickly it all came tumbling down.
Keith Law: He just came to mind the other day when I saw a photo of some other past TC contestants – he’s completely vanished. Well-earned, though. So much toxic behavior in restaurant kitchens, likely more revelations to come.

Ken : when you worked for the BJays – did you and did you enjoy living in Toronto?
Keith Law: I never lived there, but spent a lot of time there and loved the city. Had moving cross-border been easier I would happily have moved.

Gabe: To be a major league regular, what type of line do you think Bobby Dalbec will need to produce? Will a 220/330/450 line get it done?
Keith Law: Don’t think that he gets there. That’s a very rosy OBP scenario.

TK: Another good reason you left Arizona: lawmakers last week advanced not one, not two but THREE bills that would make it easier to get vaccine exemptions and would require doctors to provide information on “potential harms” of vaccines … Ugh.
Keith Law: The population isn’t that insane, but the legislature is.

An angry Mets fan: Given that the two biggest contracts given out this offseason (Arenado and Machado) came from franchises that wouldn’t be considered financial juggernauts, can we start replacing “Team X can’t afford this player” with “Team X doesn’t want to afford this player”?
Keith Law: We should. Too many writers carrying water for owners, though.

Alex: Deranged Braves fan with a question that isn’t about the Braves. In my view, would it make strategic sense for the players union to negotiate with owners about the share of revenue that goes to players?
Keith Law: Yes, I feel like this is inevitable. I think it’s worked in the NBA, no? At least for sustained labor peace and a positive relationship between players and the league?

barbeach: Klaw: Thanks so much for the chat. Luke Voit or Greg Bird? Could Voit be for real?
Keith Law: I’d go with an outside option for 1b.

addoeh: I was pleasantly surprised to see Quinn Priester in your initial top 30 draft prospects ranking. How big of a disadvantage does he have given his season starts much later than prospects in warmer climates?
Keith Law: He’ll do fine – Kelenic went 6th, from the same general area, and with pitchers it’s even easier because you can do a relatively complete evaluation off one start, seeing stuff, size, mechanics, command, athleticism in one shot.

quack quack: Duck legs. Where do you get them? I can get whole duck, but I have to special order leg quarters and pay an arm and (ha ha) a leg for them, $14/lb. It’s cheaper to buy whole duck and cut it up, so why not just braise the breast quarters too as long as you’re at it?
Keith Law: Whole Foods has them intermittently or can order them. They freeze well, too.

Todd Boss: Harper Harper Harper! How relieved are you going to be when he finally signs and we can move on from a narrative perspective?
Keith Law: I’ve certainly had enough of this as a general story and of Philly writers/radio people taking cheap shots at Harper for (checks notes) letting his agent handle negotiations.

Sam: If the first regular season game is on March 20th, does that mark the start of the year for everyone, or just those teams? Asking so I know when Guerrero and Jimenez will magically stop needing minor league seasoning.
Keith Law: Just those teams.

Randall Stephens: How worried should I be about Kershaw? Can his FB get back to 93-94?
Keith Law: I think he can succeed averaging 90 mph, but I’m more concerned that his arm is sore. Seems like he’s never come up with a complaint about arm soreness.

Nick: Do you think Harper will take less to go to the West Coast? And how bad would it be if the Phillies were outbid?
Keith Law: No, I think he’ll take the most lucrative offer, period.

Beetlejuice: Hello Keith. Draft class looks pretty rough on the college pitching side – any guys you think have late life to jump into the top 5?
Keith Law: Right now, no.

Stanley: He just turned 18 a few months ago. Does Luis Garcia (PHI) have enough projection to get to 50 power?
Keith Law: Probably.

Mike: You’ve probably answered this at one point, but have you seen Ex Machina? Finally watched it for first time last night and it’s the best sci-fi film I’ve seen in awhile.
Keith Law: Yep, review is somewhere on this site. “I’m gonna tear up the fuckin’ dance floor” is one of the best lines/scenes of the decade.

Dave: In your organizational write-up, you noted that Detroit hadn’t gotten production from its international signings– is that because of poor scouting, not putting enough resources into either scouting or signing players, bad luck… or something else?
Keith Law: I don’t know what their investment in the region has been, but they haven’t produced players. They’ve had few big-dollar signings, though.

James: Will you have a chance to get out to San Diego to see Spencer Jones and/or Derek Diamond?
Keith Law: Right now, neither is good enough for me to make the trip.

Kevin : Are many players still older than their listed ages (cough:Pujols:cough) or is that becoming a thing of the past?
Keith Law: I still hear of those from time to time. Mostly players from Cuba now, rather than players from the DR, which was most common pre-9/11 and has since become almost nonexistent.

Mason: Who do you think is starting in center field for the Reds on opening day?
Keith Law: Why not Senzel? Who’s the better option?

Jay: Any remarks on Paddack’s ST outing, particularly on fastball location or new curveball shape he’s been working on?
Keith Law: Absolutely not. One brief ST outing when players are still getting into game shape tells us little to nothing.

CJ: Are you reporting to spring training in the best shape of your career?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

Jonny: Mount Rushmore of favorite movies ever?
Keith Law: Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind. Amelie. North by Northwest. Double Indemnity. Ugh, so many I have to leave out – Charade, To Catch a Thief, WALL-E … didn’t mention any musicals … The Maltese Falcon, Strangers on a Train, The Apartment … I could go on for a while.

Jim: Do teams place any personnel decisions on spring training performance or are those decisions already made in advance?
Keith Law: I think it still happens more than it should. ST should be for making sure everyone is healthy and ready to go, but less for new evaluations unless there is a tangible, physical explanation.

Matt: I was reading your foreign language learning strategy and in regards to the flashcards, would you still use the physical cards or do you know of a good online program or app that you would use now?
Keith Law: I’ve tried some apps and none has really worked for me.

Jay: Tatis callup on May 1 sound about right to you? Or more seasoning
Keith Law: He’s played less than a full season of games above low-A. I don’t know how ready he is right now – he might be so good it doesn’t matter, but I am not banging the drum for him as I am for Vlad Jr. or Eloy.

Mark: Should the Nats offer Rendon the same contract extension that Arenado just got? I’d be more heartbroken if he left than Harper honestly.
Keith Law: Yes.

Mike: Klaw, thanks for your great work. I’m looking for restaurant recommendations for Charlotte. My wife loves chain restaurants, so I want her to try something that perhaps you can recommend.
Keith Law: I have spent very little time there, so I’m sorry but I don’t have any.

AES: I can’t read the rankings because ESPN+ isn’t available to dirty foreigners. So I’m asking, it seems the hosiery trade worked out perfect for the Crimson, as Sale has been great, flags fly forever, but how much hav e koepech/moncada dropped?
Keith Law: If you sign up through a VPN and choose digital delivery, you should be able to subscribe. Moncada is no longer eligible, and Kopech only dropped because he got hurt.

Jack: In your opinion, is this offseason a disaster for the Phillies if they dont get Harper?
Keith Law: No, but it’ll be a bad winter.

John: Plan on ever going to Morgantown, WV to see Manoah or any other guys?
Keith Law: More likely I’ll get him on the road. That’s not easy to get to from here.

Mike: Did you have a chance to watch Kikuchi pitch? If so, any takeaways?
Keith Law: I’ll try to see him live, not on tv.

Beetlejuice: With the service time manipulation in the news – can you point to any players that weren’t ready in one facet and might have benefited significantly from another 2-3 months to refine that one skill (so they wouldn’t have to learn on the job in the majors)? Wouldn’t you say that is a legitimate reason to hold off on promoting a high level prospect? (especially if the player is young/hasn’t had many reps in the minors)
Keith Law: Jose Guillen comes to mind. Jumped to the majors at 19, never progressed much after that.

Greg: Hey, Keith. What do you think is the biggest reason that a large percentage of US citizens don’t seem to care/realize that the president is implicated in many, many crimes? Crimes that would be the hugest scandal in the world for any previous president. Is it a lack of knowledge? Tribalism run amok? Or the gradual normalization and slow trickle of all the crimes just makes everybody shrug. Rick Santorum actually defended Trump’s constant lying about Russia by saying it wasn’t surprising because Trump lies about everything.
Keith Law: Tribalism run amok is a good way to phrase it. Many people do not care about issues beyond those of their religion, such as trying to ban abortion, or protecting their own race.

Teddy Ballgame: Best pizza around Scottsdale, go. I’m there for two days in early March.
Keith Law: Bianco, Pomo, cibo, Craft 64. Apparently I need to try Myke’s pizza truck, too.

Sean: Where do you stand on intangible traits? Some are clearly just voo doo (like clutchiness), while some might be real but just impossible to quantify and therefore shouldn’t be included in contract negotiations? Can you give examples of some of the latter?
Keith Law: If they exist enough for us to identify them, they’re probably not intangible. Work ethic would be one. “Desire” gets a little wonky. Good in the clubhouse is mostly bullshit.

Jon: Nolan Arenado was hardly a league average player with a .772 OPS away from Coors last season. Obviously a different story in Denver. That being said, what are your thoughts on the contract? Too rich for my blood at zero fault to arenado. Go get your money!
Keith Law: Great for the player. It’s not fair to just look at a Rockies player’s road splits, though – if you put Arenado at sea level he wouldn’t post that road stat line. But I don’t think I’d want him at that salary level into his 30s.

Dan: Hi Keith, do you think Miles Mikolas and Shane Bieber can repeat their success from last year? St Louis obviously believes in Mikolas.
Keith Law: Bieber had a 4.55 ERA and will probably be more homer-prone going forward.

Evan: Ke’Bryan Hayes a 25 HR guy if the MLB ball doesn’t change?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that.

Joel: Are you buying Moniak’s second half? Are the tools still there to be a first division regular?
Keith Law: I’m not buying that.

Deke: What do you think of Joe Sheehan’s argument that the pace of play stuff is almost entirely borne of writers wanting to go home sooner, and the industry’s rising revenues prove that there’s not really a problem?
Keith Law: Partial agreement, partial disagreement. I do think there is a pace of play issue, but it’s 90% about commercials, not this other crap (although I’d like to see someone nail hitters’ feet in the batter’s box). Rising revenues do show that the sport is healthy, but revenues have risen faster than fan interest (such as the total # of people interested in the sport).

Brett: Do you feel like a lot of the hype or mystique that usually begins a new season has been lessened or tainted by greedy ownership and the labor strife? In my small group of Baseball friends, I can’t remember a time they were less excited for a new season.
Keith Law: Yes.

Cartoons Plural : Wander Franco starts 2019 in Bowling Green. Where do you expect him to finish the year at?
Keith Law: Port Charlotte.

Kevin : Was you (still are) a fan on early 90’s grunge/alternative?
Keith Law: Yep.

War biscuit : What order do you prefer these college SS: Holland, Stott, Shewmake and Davidson
Keith Law: I just ranked them all on Tuesday.

The Decider: Are you doing a breakout players for 2019 column?
Keith Law: Yes.

Kevin : Seems like Democrats should talk about farm bailouts being actual socialism as opposed to healthcare?
Keith Law: The right’s messaging on “socialism” has been far too effective, because most Americans don’t know what socialism means – really, I’d guess 60-70% could not correctly define the term – and thus saying “we’re not socialists!” isn’t very useful. The left needs better messaging on this: these are policies that will do X, Y, and Z *for you*.

Nathan: I LOVE my Anova but I feel like it’s steak after steak after steak with maybe a chicken thrown in once in a while. Any good ways to mix it up or just use it for what it’s good at? Also, do you vacuum seal bags, use ziplocks, etc.?
Keith Law: Vacuum seal. I don’t eat steak so I use mine for chicken thighs, duck legs, occasionally pork chops, even some vegetables that require a long cooking time like beets.

addoeh: For young pitchers where you see their long term future is as a reliever, when should the team move him to reliever? Is it when he is major league ready? At what point should they stop thinking that there could be a small chance to be a starter?
Keith Law: I think performance will usually tell you.
Keith Law: Or health. If a guy starts breaking down you’d rather move him sooner rather than later.

John: What did you eat at Xochi? Sorry if you’ve posted that somewhere and I missed it.
Keith Law: The crispy duck and some divine chocolate thing (river and rocks, something like that). To die for.

Mark: You’ve probably tackled this before but once more for idiots in the back like me… Why shouldn’t teams behave exactly like the Blue Jays are with Vlad? It just seems like good business given the parameters that exist right now. Baseball writers will wring their hands but I don’t think the teams give a damn about that. I suppose you run the risk of pissing the player off, but 7 years is a long time and feelings can (and probably do) change in that period of time. I agree that the current system is idiotic, but I cant really fault teams for doing what they think is the best business decision, and in most cases, locking in a top young player for an extra year seems like a sound business decision given the squishiness of the downsides.
Keith Law: My main baseball problem with this is the idea that you can accurately predict 1) what the player will be like 7 years from now 2) what your team will be like 7 years from now and 3) what the rules will be like 7 years from now.
Keith Law: Plus, what if the Jays had called Vlad up in June, and he’d hit like Mike Trout for three-plus months? Maybe they like their projections for 2019 more and decide to add to the team rather than subtracting? Maybe more fans show up, or buy season tickets, so there’s more cash in the till going forward? The blanket assumption that holding the player down will be, unequivocally, a positive for the team does not hold water for me.

Paul: I feel like that guy disproved his own point. If he moved because of a similar wage in a low COLA area, then cities would be forced to pay a living wage to keep their residents. Thurs showing a benefit of a Federally mandated minimum wage.
Keith Law: Fair point. We tried to pass one in Delaware a year ago, to $11, and it failed by something like two votes, so I’m planning to work to unseat my Senator, who voted against it.

Scott: Are you getting the new Castles of Burgundy app?
Keith Law: Is it out yet? I will when it’s available.

Craig R.: Keith, early MLB Draft question. Any specific HS player that might have the most helium or chance to jump up come June?
Keith Law: I just ranked a top 30 the other day; if I like a player the way you’re described, he’s ranked that way on the list.

Mike: Loved your oscar podcast, and hoping there is a regular Klaw podcast sometime in the future. Do you have any podcasts (besides G & L) that you listen to regularly?
Keith Law: thanks! I listen to Hidden Brain, Crimetown, Hugh Acheson Stirs the Pot (been *really* enjoying that lately), BBC’s The Inquiry.

Zach: Isn’t it “radical” that AOC was the most rational speaker at the hearing yesterday? Pun intended!
Keith Law: The young women reps were way more prepared and presented better than the majority of the men. Amazing what a little diversity will do for any group.

Robby: As a prospect enthusiast, who is the top Midwest draft prospect that I should go out and see when the snow melts?
Keith Law: I think Misner was the top midwest guy on my list the other day, unless you count Texas as Midwest (I do not).

Jeff: If you had to pick one guy from the Dbacks that has the highest star potential in the minors, who is it? Thomas? Chisolm?
Keith Law: Chisholm now, only real competition for that is Robinson.

Tim: Will Moncada be a horror show at 3B?
Keith Law: I saw him play it in the AFL and I thought he was adequate. Not average, but decent enough to think he might stay there.

Joe: Everyone makes fun of the “best shape of his life” reports every spring…but Cubs Twitter made a good point when David Bote came into camp in great shape. As a lower draft pick who was never a top prospect, this is probably his first offseason where he has been able to concentrate on baseball instead of saving up money for the season. Not paying minor leaguers is so counterproductive.
Keith Law: I like your point although I don’t know that this makes Bote’s projections any different.

Joshue: It’s unfair to think Hudson Potts has to move off 3B now, right? Is he the most obvious trade candidate for SD?
Keith Law: I wrote in my Machado reaction piece that he was trade bait.
Keith Law: I don’t see him profiling as a regular at another position, so dealing him is the best use of his value.

Nick: A thought I had on the whole question of service time manipulation and the depressed FA market…what if MLB decided that teams who didn’t win at least x games for y consecutive seasons, with a combination of low payroll commitment, saw a dip in their share of the league revenue. Like, a team wins fewer than 75 games for 3 years a never cracks the top 22 in league payroll during that times sees their share of the revenue drop from 1/30 to 1/45 or 1/60? Would this provide enough incentive for teams to sing more middle class FAs who will help them be competitive?
Keith Law: Yes – I’d like to see revenue sharing tied to wins. I’ve come around on changing some of these fundamental assumptions about the game, because teams have stopped distributing as much revenue to the players, and that’s untenable both as a practical matter and, to me, as a philosophical issue.

Joel: Which Luis Garcia would you rather have?
Keith Law: The one who made my top 100, of course.

Brian: To address the earlier question on a $40 minimum wage…wouldn’t people deciding to move from San Fran to more rural areas be an overall positive outcome for the country?
Keith Law: Debatable. We may not be at the ideal equilibrium, but getting more people into cities, using public transport & ditching cars, would have positive externalities.
Keith Law: Hey, it looks like Harper might have signed with the Phillies after all. That’s a lot of full diapers over nothing.

Tim: Will we see Madrigal in the show this year?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised.
Keith Law: They didn’t call up Eloy when he was ready last year. Madrigal would be barely a year out of college.

Jesus: Are you even willing to accept that there are plenty arguments that The Green Book was a very good movie? Or do you simply decide anyone who enjoyed it is wrong because you say so?
Keith Law: That would be the loaded question fallacy, “Jesus.” Kindly take the door on your left.

JD: Pretty sure you’ve answered this before, but what board games would you introduce to a ~6-year-old?
Keith Law: That’s one I’m happy to answer regularly – Ticket to Ride First Journey is perfect. I’m told the kids’ versions of Catan and Carcassonne are also fun. You can play One Night Ultimate Werewolf with kids that young too. My niece is 6 and really likes Jaipur now, which is great if a bit surprising because of the foresight required to play it. (She’s bright, though.) I think the base Dominion game could work if you’re selective about the cards you choose for the table.

Edgar: Have you seen Josh Jung? My goodness that is a smooth swing.
Keith Law: Only video. He’ll be a tough get but I will try.

David: Hi Keith. My fellow Cards fans keep suggesting Flaherty is on the same level as Buehler. I disagree – but is it close?
Keith Law: No, not really close, but Flaherty is really damn good (and, cough, I regularly ranked him on my top 100 too).

Guest: Despite the horror show that was most of the main category winners, I actually thought the Oscars were better w no host. Either give me the SNL troika as hosts for everything or go hostless, I say.
Keith Law: Agreed. I thought the show itself was mostly very entertaining, and some of the presenters were great (McCarthy/Henry, Mulaney/Awkwafina). Grierson and Leitch commented on their podcast that if Roma had won Best Picture, everyone would be talking about how great the telecast was.

justin: Are you still a believer in Arcia?
Keith Law: Yep. Still young, very very talented.

Paul: Hey Keith – sounds like UGA has a couple stud pitchers for the 2020 draft. Excited to get back to Athens??
Keith Law: Hancock maybe, Wilcox for ’21. I think I’ll end up there this year to see a road team and get a look at Schunk.

Jay: ESPN subscription renewal coming soon. Are you able to share any insights on your ongoing status at ESPN (ie. beyond 2019)?
Keith Law: I have no updates – my contract runs through December, and that’s all.

Ira: Why aren’t more players taught multiple positions when being developed in the minors? It would give teams more flexibility and the player would have added value.
Keith Law: I feel like most teams do this already, no? I hear it constantly when making calls for the rankings.

Cartoons Plural : Tyler Glasnow’s pause in his delivery, good or bad thing?
Keith Law: Neither. What may be good for one pitcher may be bad for another.

Brian: I really thought nothing would beat Don Jr as the real life GOB Bluth and then came Matthew Calamari
Keith Law: I so wanted to make a Gene Parmesan joke but Lana Berry beat me to it.

EL: Canadian baseball fan who must know: Who’s the better Naylor? The better Pompey?
Keith Law: The younger, and the younger.

Bill: Can Keon Broxton hit enough to be an everyday CFer?
Keith Law: IMO no. Did it once, for most of a year, that’s it.

JR: Do you bother watching Spring Training games on mlb.tv? I’m guessing only if you know a top prospect is going to be playing?
Keith Law: Because I often can’t see the angles I want I find the experience rather frustrating. And it’s spring training, where the games are (Allen Iverson voice) PRAC-tice.

Andy: I am trying to get into earlier Opeth. They are interesting musically, but I really can’t figure out how to like the harsh singing. While I can understand the music needs the harsh singing, it completely takes me out of the music. How do you compensate for music that’s good, other than cookie monster growling?
Keith Law: I hear you (pun intended). I can tune that out with some artists, like Opeth, less with others, like Obituary, who have long done very interesting stuff on the border of thrash and death metal but whose singer sounds like he’s flossing with a chainsaw.

Zihuatanejo: In a recent spring training game, in all but 3 PAs for the entire game the Dodger hitters swung at the first pitch they saw. Do you think that was: 1) a random thing that happened; 2) a directive from the dugout; or 3) an inside joke between the players?
Keith Law: I’d guess 2, then 3, but not 1.

Robert: Did you drop in to any new restaurants in austin last week?
Keith Law: Better Half, Micklethwait, Backspace, Cane Rosso (been to the Dallas one).

JD: Doesn’t keeping somebody down for service time reasons violate the CBA? I thought that was why management always pretends it’s for other reasons, and you occasionally get grievances. So it’s not just “the best business decision,” it’s against the rules
Keith Law: It does. But you can’t prove it if they don’t admit it.

PULLEY: Regarding Vlad Jr and the BS service time manipulation… why doesnt a player like him or kris Bryant in 2015, when it’s obvious they are being held down for manipulation purposes only come out and say something like “if I am sent down I will not negotiate any extension in the future and will fully explore free agency no matter what.”
Keith Law: Idle threat.

Zach: Minimum Wage – Federal steps in because if not Texas and Mississippi would be paying $2.50 an hour.
Keith Law: You think they’d pay that much?

Dave: I was reading Fangraphs Top Prospects list (I know you think highly of them and work with them at times) and in their writeup of Andres Gimenez (on which they had him ranked much higher than you) they mention that ppl may have gotten a different impression on him based on when they saw him. They said he looked pretty blah in the AFL but very possibily couldve been due to fatigue from a long season. I know that you saw him in person at the AFL and came away relatively “meh” on his hitting. Did you factor in the potential fatigue aspect at that point or do you feel that that may be overblown.
Keith Law: I do factor that in, but 1) that’s not the only time I saw him and 2) I ask a *lot* of people before doing those rankings.

Brian: Dylan Cozens has impressed people in Phillies camp. Does a guy like that with massive tools and massive holes always have a chance to break out, or once he hits a certain age/stage of development do the holes become very unlikely to be closed enough to take advantage of the tools?
Keith Law: One massive tool, the power, that’s it. Not a good player, just a guy with raw power.

Tyler: Today Liberty Media showed Braves’ revenue surged to $442M for 2018. Their 2019 payroll is currently lower than last year after winning the NL East. What is wrong with this picture?
Keith Law: Well, an hour ago, you might have argued they were still favorites or close to it to win the division. Now…

Jeremy: No question, thanks for the chats. Also, another newer pizza place in Phoenix that is fantastic is BASE pizza on Lincoln.
Keith Law: Adds to the list. Taking suggestions, of course.

Phillies Prospects: How frustrating is it when people repost your work that was behind the ESPN paywall? Where Siani or Newell close to the top 30?
Keith Law: Not just frustrating – it’s illegal. If you see it, say something, to me or to the site’s operators. Neither was close but I will certainly see both as they play within an hour of me. Also the HS pitcher near Philly whose name escapes me right now.

War biscuit : I believe Wilcox is a draft eligible sophomore so he may be eligible for 2020
Keith Law: Didn’t realize that, so much the better if he is.

Nat: What’s your opinion of Harper getting $330 mil over 13 with no opt-outs according to Passan?
Keith Law: Love it.
Keith Law: Phillies are the preseason favorites for the division now. Granted, that doesn’t mean much when the games start, but still, good deal.

Cartoons Plural : Saw Detroit ranked as a Top 10 farm, mainly because of apparently lots of MLB ready talent? Is it quantity or quality?
Keith Law: They’re not a top 10 farm.

Pierre: Phillis pitching sucks after Nola.
Keith Law: Good taek.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Might do a Periscope tomorrow now that we have more news to discuss, but I’ll wrap this one up here. Thank you as always for reading, and for all of your questions. I’ll write something up on Harper this afternoon. Enjoy your weekends.

Keith Law: Today it’s just a place where we meet. Klawchat.

The Fonz: Kimbrel ends up in Atlanta?
Keith Law: I tweeted over the weekend that I heard he was farther down the road towards a deal with Washington. That’s the last info I have (and I haven’t sought more … that just came to me). BTW, let’s chill with the Kimbrel as future-Hall-of-Famer talk. His agent misread the market, and now the player is paying the price for that. Overstating the player’s ability or career doesn’t help.

addoeh: What anti-vaxxers don’t realize is that snake oil sales is a very lucrative business. “Dr’s” Sears and Mercola, Alex Jones, the guy who owns N*****l N**s, and the rest have made a ton of money peddling essential oils, elephant extract elixirs, and other crap they sell.
Keith Law: Yep. It’s a weird, unholy alliance between these mountebanks, parents who need someone to blame for their children’s neuroatypicality, and religious cult members. They can all believe what they want, but if you want to send your kids to school, you need to get them vaccinated.

PhillyJake: Neil Huntington has made the contention that, had he signed a high price free agent, the salary differential could cause a jealousy in the clubhouse, with one player being paid a huge percentage of overall salary. Any thoughts on this type of thinking?
Keith Law: I understand his point, but don’t quite agree. One, if the team wins, every player stands a chance to make more money. Two, the other solution to that is to … sign two players at high prices?

CH: If the Mets have a rough start, an absolute fire sale of their pitching would make sense, right? Get as many good young players for Thor and deGrom as possible?
Keith Law: Yes, especially with that very, very tough division, but I don’t foresee them doing so.

Sam: I’ve been reading the Ringer’s series on the Reds’ scouting reports, and it got me thinking about how scouting has changed over the years. What do you think are the biggest changes you’ve seen in your scouting process or the league’s process as a whole?
Keith Law: Many things – I spoke to Ben about some that may appear in part 3 (that’s not up yet, I think). Scouting reports themselves have changed. Scouts are expected to be more literate in analytical basics, to be better able to provide information R&D can use, to look more at things that we think matter and less at things that we don’t. BTW, one subject I have not seen anywhere was whether the leaking of those reports violated trade secret laws or anything the leaker signed.

JaKob : Hey Keith, how do you see the Brewers 5th spot shaking out between Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: I would be very surprised if Woodruff and Burnes don’t both get 20+ starts this year.

JP: Keith – Thanks for the chats and the insider system reviews were great, by the way. I know spring training stats mean diddly, but have you had any looks at anyone or heard reports of anything that jumps out at you?
Keith Law: I haven’t headed to spring training yet – I’ll go Saturday for the first trip. I tend to ignore info from the first week or two, since the stats mean nothing and people react more to how players look (like, best shape of his life stuff) than how they play.

Ron: Hi Keith-Thanks for all your work on prospects and all your baseball write-ups. You and Buster are the only reason I subscribe to Insider. Would it make sense for Minnesota to offer a 1 or 2 year deal to Keuchel if he would take it, or just let that horse leave the barn?
Keith Law: Yes, unless there’s something so drastic in his medicals that they’re uncomfortable even at two years.
Keith Law: The Twins are good. They’re certainly at a point where investing further in the 2019 team is likely to have a positive ROI.

Dean G.: Klaw! My man! Whats good fam? Do you think Chris Paddack makes the Padres rotation early in the year?
Keith Law: Yes.

JaKob : Does Duplantier make the rotation this year for the Dbacks? It appears some injuries would have to happen for that to occur.. What about someone like Jose Suarez for the Angels? Do either of those guys help the big league team if there is no starters role in 2019?
Keith Law: Both probably don’t see the rotation until the second half if at all.

Long Dong Silver: What are your thoughts on Carlos Martinez… this dude is so frustrating… seems like he has the pure talent to be great, but neither the mental durability or “want to” to become an upper echelon pitcher. Would appreciate your thoughts, thanks Keith!
Keith Law: Nice reference in your username. Amazing how a man facing credible accusations of sexual harassment has been allowed to shape US judicial policy for almost 30 years now. I don’t think Martinez lacks “mental durability” or “want to.” He’s a smaller guy who throws hard and gets hurt.

Rodney: No question today, just want to say I’ve enjoyed following you on instagram! I think it’s a good format for you!
Keith Law: thanks! trying different things there since IG is poorly suited to baseball content.

The Dude: My film turned 21 yesterday. Ever seen it?
Keith Law: Did you just ask if I’ve seen The Big Lebowski? Obviously you’re not a golfer.

Moe Mentum: Whose presumed Phillies roster spot did the Bryce Harper signing most likely affect – Altherr, Quinn, or Williams?
Keith Law: Has to be Williams, who went from probable starter to bench guy/trade bait.

Jarrod: Hello Mr. Law, is Ryan Pressly one of the more under rated RPs in the game?
Keith Law: Don’t know how to answer that. Underrated how/by whom? He’s good, a good example of how very progressive teams like Houston target players they think they can improve through R&D-based coaching, but they also gave up two decent prospects to get him.

Nick: What have you heard about Eastlake’s Keoni Cavaco?
Keith Law: Nothing. I only cover top draft prospects at that level.

Bighen: Not that it’s some huge battle but should Mets actually be rooting for Dom Smith to come away with 1B job this spring? Better D, maybe better overall approach at the plate, obviously less power
Keith Law: Yes and also there’s risk he loses any trade value if he has to go back to AAA, whereas Alonso could return to AAA for a couple of months without anyone really batting an eye (pun intended).

Dana: Any book recommendations off the top of your head for somebody who likes Tolstoy, Proust, Stendhal, Dostoyevsky, Balzac and Hugo?
Keith Law: My go-to rec for literary fiction is always Bulgakov’s The Master and Margarita. Bleak House, Middlemarch, The Return of the Native, The Good Soldier all come to mind. But also branch out into some stuff from outside the western canon – how about Ngugi wa’Thiongo’s Wizard of the Crow, GGM’s One Hundred Years of Solitude, Rushdie’s Midnight’s Children (not a favorite of mine, but still a book of great literary merit), or Saramago’s Blindness?

JR: Do you ever go into reading “slumps”? I used to read pretty consistently and have fallen out of the habit of doing so. If you do, how do you work through it?
Keith Law: I do, and I try to read something I know I’ll love – a Nero Wolfe novel, or an Agatha Christie book, or something similarly light and fun.

Mark: Keith, will you be in AZ the weekend of the 15th-16th?
Keith Law: Nope, I’ll be home between trips.

Moe Mentum: Please rank by likelihood of eventual Cooperstown enshrinement: Beltre, Cano, Donaldson, Pedroia, Tulowitzki, Utley
Keith Law: Beltre is a no-doubter. Cano will probably get there. Utley will be on the bubble. The others are not.

Ryan: 13 years seems like a long time for a player that has only played more than 150 games twice. He is always hurt and is a horrible defender. I would imagine by year 5 of this contract the Phillies will be dreading this decision. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Not always hurt, and not a horrible defender until last year, which Mike Petriello showed was probably not predictive.

Daniel L: Is it service time manipulation to keep Tatis Jr down in AAA?
Keith Law: No. He has less than a full season of games above low-A.

JR: Dustin Peterson hitting very well in tigers camp. chances he makes breaks camp with the big club?
Keith Law: Great guy for them to give a shot.

Jake: I love your baseball analysis, but on a different note, can you tell me why you liked Roma so much? I thought it was unique, but really slow and just ok, certainly not best picture worthy.
Keith Law: Great story, amazing cinematography and sound. The only other BP nominee that was close in my opinion was The Favourite. Of course, White Savior won. I wonder if some voters skipped Roma because it’s not in English.

Daniel L: Paddack’s curve seems better so far this spring no?
Keith Law: No.
Keith Law: Wishful thinking.

eric: Keith,

Just how far under the radar is Dylan Carlson? Big bodied kid, switch hitter and will be one of the youngest players in his league this year.

I’m guessing he will see a jump in power leaving the FSL.

Is it far fetched to see him ascend into the top 100 by midseason?
Keith Law: He’s not under the radar at all.

Cole: Do you trust David Fletcher as the everyday 2B for the Angels, or should they have tried to find someone in free agency?
Keith Law: No, utility guy.

Yu: Do you think Yu gets back to being Yu or is he 2018 Yu? What says you?
Keith Law: Think he’ll get back to his usual self now that he’s healthy.

Roger: Which wild pitcher has the best chance of having a career as a starter between Luis Medina, Jorge Guzman and Alec Hansen?
Keith Law: Medina. Most likely none of them, but Medina is at least healthy and his delivery works.

Roger: It seems that you are the high man on Oscar Mercado. Does he take one of the starting OF spots out of camp?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t be a bad move for them, but I don’t try to handicap who’ll win Opening Day jobs.

Dan: Have you listed to The Black Keys new single?
Keith Law: No, not really a big fan. All their stuff sounds the same to me.

Roger: What do you think attributed to Alex Faedo’s velo dip last year? Is it something that could return to normal this year?
Keith Law: He never really threw that hard in college. It was a bad first-round pick.

Billy: The importance of vaccinations clearly shouldn’t even be an debate. So should we be concerned about the immunization records of illegal aliens? How do we ensure they are (or become) properly immunized?
Keith Law: By making it much, much easier for people to immigrate here legally. They’re coming whether we like it or not, so let’s formalize the process, so that everyone entering the country can, say, show proof of immunization (or just get immunized on the spot), or allow us to conduct background checks for any history of violent crimes.

Zac: You are firmly against giving Luke Heimlich any publicity, but Jeff Passan recently reported accounts think he could be an MLB pitcher, have you guys talked about not giving him any publicity?
Keith Law: Jeff works with me, not for me.

Alex Anthopoulos: I was wise to stand pat with trades because not enough teams are willing to trade now, but likely will by mid season. Fair?
Keith Law: Eh. I don’t think i agree with the premise. That said, Atlanta didn’t have any obvious weak spots either.

Mike: In your Cubs writeup you wrote that Brennan Davis needs to improve his pitch recognition but a 14% BB rate as a raw 2 sport guy shows some polish
Keith Law: Walk rate – especially in complex ball – is not any indicator of pitch recognition.

Mac: I get Bobby Witt’s age somewhat matters now but projecting him out will it matter when he’s 23? 25? 30? Seems to be a lot of overthinking at the top of the draft.
Keith Law: It affects his long-term projection. You’re glossing over the empirical evidence we have that HS position player projections are affected by age on draft day. Also, there are real swing and miss concerns with him.

Beep: Andrew Vaughn. Defensively, any chance he could play the OF? 3B? If relegated to 1B, what kind of defensive potential does he have there?
Keith Law: 1B only. Anything else is wishful thinking.

Alan: Too early for draft intel? Anything on the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Way too early. Try me in about six weeks.

JC: Kimbrel would have a team by now if his agent wasn’t trying to convince teams his 2018 & 2016 didn’t exist & price accordingly
Keith Law: Agreed. Also, the last time we saw the guy pitch he couldn’t throw a strike, and his manager used a starter to close out the last game.

Dan: Serious, maybe ignorant question. As a white male who is raising two young boys, what can I do as a father to make sure my children grow up in a completely tolerant, non-privileged way?
Keith Law: You can’t. That’s an unattainable goal. You can raise them to be kind to others, and you can avoid raising them to think ill of those who are different, and as they get older you can point out to them that not all the kids had the same advantages they’ve had. But you can’t make perfect children; nobody can.

Osiris : Do you see DJ Peters playing any kind of significant role for the Dodgers in 2019?
Keith Law: No. I’m not sure he will ever play a significant role for them.

rufreshterp: Is it AT ALL POSSIBLE that you’ve confused Luis Garcia for Yasel Antuna, which would then help explain why you seem to have absolutely no regard for Luis Garcia?
Keith Law: Fuck off.
Keith Law: Really, if you came here to my site to insult me, then leave.

Mark: Do fans really care about the length of games?
Keith Law: I don’t think so; I think that they care about dead time during games – but perhaps that’s because *I* care about dead time during games.

Poke: Any chance Adley could slip to the White Sox at #3?
Keith Law: Any chance, sure. Would I bet on it? No. Seems like he is the safest bet for 1 right now, assuming he doesn’t get hurt (he is a catcher, after all). If the Orioles decided to take Vaughn for his otherworldly hitting performance, l would then guess Adley goes 2.

Jerry: Do you think there are still people who legitimately believe in lower taxes, less regulation, “freedom” of religion, etc? I used to give the benefit of the doubt to my conservative/Republican acquaintances. After living in NE Texas throughout the Obama and Trump years (I lived in Houston before) I am convinced that it was all a cover for people to legitimize their bigotry and racism. I can’t believe how naïve I was all of these years.
Keith Law: I do. There is a real, longstanding school within economics that argues, with some evidence, that lower taxes and less regulation lead to greater economic growth (probably) and thus to greater prosperity for all (that’s becoming less true, if it ever was). I also think that idea works better for countries trying to rapidly industrialize, like Estonia after independence, than a country like ours that is already developed and now trying to support a large and aging population.

Zihuatanejo: With Kershaw looking tenuous, should the Dodgers consider signing Keuchel? Any chance they do?
Keith Law: I was thinking Gio for them.

Zihuatanejo: I see anti-vax, climate change denial, flat-earthers, and similar nonsense as symptoms of a larger problem — the mindset of “I probably know more about this subject than the professionals who study it for a living.” When and how do you think this arose? Was it created by Internet culture, or did the Internet merely enable these people?
Keith Law: The Internet allowed those people to find other deniers and thus cement their views. Denialism goes back centuries. They’re just louder now.

JR: What was your thoughts on the Leaving Neverland doc?
Keith Law: I posted that here yesterday – it’s the post before this one.

Mark: I find that people tend to gravitate to the sort of pizza they grew up with. If i remember the pizza of your youth was Little Vincent’s which seems to be a far cry from the pizza you favor today. Was there a particular pizza that reshaped your taste buds ?
Keith Law: That was near where I grew up but not the specific pizzeria we frequented most often. I first had real Neapolitan pizza on my first trip to Europe during college and it was love at first bite.

Craig R.: Does the young man you tweeted about yesterday for the 2020 draft, Zac Veen have a chance to go 1st overall next year?
Keith Law: Way too soon for that. Impressive prospect, though. He’s at Spruce Creek – I believe I said Spring Creek in the tweet and that was a mistake.

I7LITE: The Rangers are years away from contention and just gave a bunch of guaranteed money to a closer with one good season. Shouldn’t they be dealing guys like Leclerc, Gallo, Mazara, and anyone else with more than a year of service time, rather than extending them?
Keith Law: That assumes the market will give them fair value for such players. Two corner bats, one of whom still hasn’t performed up to expectations, the other is Rob Deer reincarnated, and a reliever with one good year under his belt are not exactly highly valuable assets right now.

Joe: Do you think the Braves scouting approach will change much going from Bridges to Brown?
Keith Law: I do not. I do think Anthopoulos will have a hand in draft strategy, albeit not in specific picks.

Bob from Accounting: Your take on “tampering” as it was so overtly executed by Bryce the other day? Seems to be an outdated concept that exists solely for the sake of posterity, but I can see where the team holding the target of the tamper would get bent out of shape.
Keith Law: Didn’t see any issue with Harper saying he’d like to play with the best player in baseball who happens to be from the area where Harper plays now.

Don: I’m worried about Kyle Tucker. I expected him to rake in spring training but he’s been pretty mediocre. Are you still high on him?
Keith Law: He’s 5 for 19.

Doug: Enjoyed chatting with you and do highly recommend the Smithsonian Documentary on The Green Book. What is Griffin Canning’s ceiling for the Halos?
Keith Law: If you ignore the health questions he had out of UCLA, #2-3 starter.

Joe: Thoughts on the Hicks extension? Not a lot of money, but seems like Hicks is hurt quite a bit (including now).
Keith Law: Yes but even missing a little time a year he’s extremely valuable, and a full year of him is going to be worth much more than he’s paid.

WhiteSoxAndy: Do the White Sox still have a bright future after this epic failure of an offseason or am I doomed to watch crap for quite some time?
Keith Law: Was it a failure? I don’t see that. I’m sure you wish they’d landed one of the two big fish, but both players signed large, lucrative deals, and I wouldn’t want the White Sox to start trading prospects yet since the major league team isn’t contending yet and their system is still shallow.

Cartoons Plural : Allen Webster fulfilling the hype that he once had or SSS?
Keith Law: Can we make NSS a thing? No Sample Size?

Frank: I’m going to new orleans for the first time this summer, so you have any recommendations for good BBQ places? Thanks.
Keith Law: I don’t think I’ve ever had Q in New Orleans. I’ve had the local dish called barbecue shrimp, which isn’t smoked or even grilled, but is shrimp baked/braised in butter. (It’s good.) I haven’t been in years but usually when I’m there I eat gumbo and fried shellfish.

Ty: I need some hope as a Tigers fan… Do you view Mize as a future ace or more of a 2/3? Does he realistically get called up to Detroit this year?
Keith Law: Future ace.

Mike: Angels pitchers have openly criticized Scioscia’s hindrance of progressive pitch coaching. Should we expect measurable performance increases, or is this just excitement about a new boss?
Keith Law: No, I think they’ll be better overall. I criticize Ausmus when he errs – okay, he does that a lot – but my understanding is that the Angels hired him to implement this new information/style of development.
Keith Law: Also, he’s so handsome.

Jerry: Will there be a work stoppage in ’21? Do the players have any chance of prevailing? Why do “fans” take the owners side in these disputes?
Keith Law: My bet now is yes.

Aaron (Houston): Klaw, follow up to twitter question about duck recipe. I baught a whole duck and am looking for your recommendation on roasting a whole duck.
Keith Law: Yes, I remember that – I actually don’t cook it whole. I break it down into two legs and two breasts. You can braise the legs and then just sear the breasts; Ruhlman’s Twenty has recipes for both. I have a sous vide machine and use that for the breasts, then just finish with a quick sear, so they stay medium-rare.

MikeM: Thoughts on Severino’s rotator cuff tendonitis? Does it portend future issues or is this just a one time thing?
Keith Law: We don’t have enough information to say.

Adam: When in spring training is the lack of velocity a concern? Saw Kenley was down to 89 mph the other day. Fulmer was at 91. both said they will be good by the end of March..
Keith Law: If someone’s velocity is still off in the final week, I get concerned. If I see someone live and his effort is higher but the velocity is lower, that might be a concern too.

Nick: Fastest rising “pop up guy” you’ve seen in your scouting tenure?
Keith Law: Benintendi.

VG Jr: Am I a top 5 hitter when I step on the field after service time manipulation?
Keith Law: No, I’d take the under on that.

Nick: Best 2 prospects you’ve seen on one team (h.s or college)? Feel like Trevor Bauer and Gerrit Cole have to be up there
Keith Law: Tough to top that – 1st pick and 3rd. At one point, Harvard-Westlake HS had seniors Luc Giolito and Max Fried and sophomore 3b/rhp Jack Flaherty.

Thomas: Best shows you’ve watched on Netflix?
Keith Law: Haven’t watched many shows at all but Russian Doll was +++.

Todd: Gleyer and Andujar regress at all this season?
Keith Law: I’m not expecting that, especially not from Gleyber.

Nino from The Money Team: Giolito seems to sitting back up in the mid-90s but is still all over the place – are the Sox still undoing a lot of the damage the Nats inflicted upon him or is this what he is and will be?
Keith Law: MLB says he’s thrown 75% of his pitches for strikes this spring. Also, it’s March 7th.

Nick: What country could you see being the next hot bed for international talent that isn’t high on the radar now?
Keith Law: Brazil. South Africa. Uganda has had some very good little league teams the last few years; I heard from a scout who went there with MLB that there were players there who could go to junior college here, which is utterly astounding when you consider its baseball isolation and lack of history with the sport.
Keith Law: Of course India and China are easy guesses … with 1 billion people each there must be some kid there who can run 3.97 down the line or throw 95 mph, just without any baseball skills.

Danny: Not a judgment comment- actual earnest question from a Yankees fan- do you think Cano will get in with the PED suspension?
Keith Law: Yes, by that point so many of the older voters will have stopped voting, lost their badges, or passed away that PED suspensions will be seen as a minor ding but not a disqualification.

Mike: what is the defensive outlook for Tyler O’Neill, looking like he will get serious playing time this year
Keith Law: Below average defender.

Pat D: Hi, Keith. No question, just a comment. We had to put down our dog yesterday. Pretty shitty day, obviously. But I was at least able to take some entertainment and get a few laughs from seeing you excoriate those idiots on Twitter last night. Please don’t ever change and don’t ever stick to baseball. Thanks!
Keith Law: Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. Very painful to lose a beloved pet.

Nick: How many teams are still heavily working in Venezuela? Seems like employees could really be at risk with current events.
Keith Law: Maybe 6 to 8?

Thomas: Not a Harper hater by any stretch – the guy has talent and he plays hard. I just can’t believe a guy who’s been worth 1.5 WAR or less in 3 of his 7 seasons just got a $330M contract.
Keith Law: Except Fangraphs has him worth quite a bit more, so your premise doesn’t hold.

Ben: Thoughts on the moving-back-the-mound experiment?
Keith Law: Oh hell no, Karen.

JC: Klaw, thanks for another chat. I am as frustrated as anyone about the rule for bringing up players, but is there any reason the players union would make this a top priority? The union has only seemed to care about the stars and not the rank and file. Is there a way to connect this issue to the interests of current players so they would fight for it. Kris Bryant seems to be the only one preaching about it.
Keith Law: Bryant talking about it will help – the union’s motivation is that such players would get to free agency (or even arbitration) faster and, because they’re likely to be premium players, push the upper bounds even further when they get there. Harper and Machado got to the majors at 19, and both just hit the top end of the all-time salary scale as free agents. That’s good for the union as a whole.

Rick: Oops – hit enter by accident before. Anyhow, maybe I’m in the minority and I couldn’t appreciate the “art” of it all, but I thought Roma was horrid to the point where I couldn’t even finish watching it. Not that I was a fan of Green Book but those calling it the worst BP winner in recent memory apparently didn’t see last year’s winner which may be the worst movie ever made. I’d rather suffer through another Avengers movie with my 7 year old than watch that garbage.
Keith Law: The Shape of Water was the worst movie ever made? Wow. I didn’t have it at 1 – that was The Florida Project, which didn’t get a nomination – but I thought it was good, beautifully shot, with a dumb antagonist, and a great lead performance by Hawkins.

Eric: My 3 yr old son loves cooking with me and my wife. When did you get your daughter involved in cooking with you, how did you keep her interested and what tasks are best as they are this young?
Keith Law: At 3 she was just sort of standing nearby, making kneading dough or something simple like that. Now when she wants to help she can man the stove – she’ll do anything but cut or chop, really.

Danny: Do you listen to the Arctic Monkeys and if so, what albums would you recommend?
Keith Law: Yes. Whatever You Say I Am … and AM are my favorites.

Adam: What have you seen in Braxton Davidson? Anything stand out that he needs to change? Power and recognition seem to be positives.
Keith Law: Recognition is a negative. Also seen velocity eat him up in the zone.

Jared: Do you think Jimmy Nelson can get back to his 2017 form?
Keith Law: I do not have any inside info on him at all, but I would generally bet against guys who have shoulder surgery regaining their old form. A few will, the majority will not.

Mike: I have been trying to make the point to some friends on the right that we are already have socialism in our country in that we are not pure capitalist by definition. Programs like unemployment insurance, social security, Medicare, Medicaid, etc. are by definition socialist policies. In a pure capitalist society it’s every man for himself. Why doesn’t the left stand up to the nonsense political messaging the right is clearly setting up for the 2020 campaign?
Keith Law: We are not pure capitalist – no country is – and nobody in the popular sphere is proposing pure socialism. People are proposing a stronger social safety net, which does not require any government ownership of industry. But if you say “socialism” 30% of the country will use the flag as a loincloth and vote for you.

Steve L.: Why can’t both parties admit that what Omar has stated is anti-Semitic yet there is an underlying point that is worth discussing? Or is this just grandstanding to each parties base?
Keith Law: What she stated was not anti-Semitic; what she stated was anti-Netanyahu, and perhaps anti-Israel, but Israel the nation-state is not Judaism the faith.

Dylan: Guy I know told me with a 100 percent straight face that he doesn’t get the flu shot because it gives him the flu. Instead, the vaccinate himself against the flu, he eats expired leftover meats, which helps his immune system. I kind of just backed away slowly to avoid whatever super germs he was carrying. I know people are scared of the big science words that are in vaccines but this was a new level of bonkers.
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s not very bright.

Mac: Will you be seeing Priester this spring? If so, he’s only going 1-2 innings until May. (EDIT: This is inaccurate.)
Keith Law: He’s on the list of guys I’d like to see, but I was unlikely to see him until late April or early May because it’s cold.

Tom: Would you put Jake Lamb or Christian Walker at first this year?
Keith Law: Lamb. Never thought of Walker as anything more than a bench piece.

Stats: wRC+ or OPS+?
Keith Law: wRC+ is better, in my opinion.

Daniel: Can we not call people illegal aliens? I mean many of these people are asylum seekers fleeing violence that is in a large part due to US Foreign Policy.
Keith Law: The term is meant to demean them by ‘othering’ these immigrants – they’re not humans, they’re aliens! Just like in that Genesis video. (Don’t watch it. Really.)

Chris: Hi Keith, what can we expect from Jack Flaherty this year? He struck out a ton of guys last year and has looked good this spring (though that can mean nothing) but can we expect him to really take a step forward on his peripheral stats?
Keith Law: I may have missed a step here – is there an expectation he’ll take a step forward? I think last year was great, kind of what I thought he’d be a year or two down the road, so I’m not projecting improvement.

Jon: Keith, thoughts on Cabello please? I’m reading a 55 hit tool with 50 PWR and 60 SPD, but not sure I’m sold on that. Thank you.
Keith Law: Happy to try to answer questions like this but if the surname is common I need a first name.

Tony: Klaw, no question but just wanted to say that in 2018 I cancelled all my subs in an effort to see what I really needed. Here we are in March 2019 and the only one I’ve gone back to is ESPN+ to read your work. So tell your boss you’re more valuable than Netflix or Amazon Prime to at least one person. Thank you!
Keith Law: Wait till you see my one-man rendition of In Search of Lost Time.
Keith Law: (Two Proust references in one Klawchat!)

Matt: RE: Jerry’s question about small government, free market conservatives – we still exist, we just are no longer republicans. Socially we have long agreed with the democrats. Now, everything we disagreed with the democrats doing economically the republicans are championing.
Keith Law: Very fair. I voted Republican for a while because of such issues, and because I didn’t care enough about social policies. I care more about those now – as I should have all along – and as you said, the GOP no longer stands for small government, lower taxes, or transparency, and they stand for reducing regulations without regard to societal costs and benefits.

SEC Guy: so trading picks is (mostly) not allowed, but could Baltimore accept cash considerations (or even a player) from KC to pass on a guy? Say for example KC offers Baltimore Yefri Del Rosario to pass on Adley (setting aside whether this is a good deal). Could Baltimore send the trade to the commissioner’s office as “for future considerations” and effectively trade one draft spot like that?
Keith Law: Illegal. Good way to get smacked like Atlanta did.

Jonathan: Chances on Jarrett Parker cracking the Angels’ roster? Career 112 wRC+ (in 382 PAs) and his approach this spring has been great (7 BBs and opp-approach with power).
Keith Law: Gotta flag you twice for bad use of wRC+. His career figure is badly skewed by a tiny sample in 2015 where he hit 6 homers in 52 PA; since then his wRC+ is under 100, in most of his career sample. And his limited major league time has also been skewed by platooning – he’s a LHB who’s faced LHP only about 20% of his PA. On top of that, who cares what he’s done in ten spring training games?

Cartoons Plural : Aaron Boone said that he’s not going to start the season with 2 1B bc he’ll have a 3 man bench, why haven’t they already cut bait with Ellsbury and Bird?
Keith Law: Ellsbury isn’t his call – that’s the GM’s. Bird they may just cut at the end of spring training if Voit is the 1b and they can’t find a trade target for Bird (some bad team without a DH should take a shot at him).

Tom: Assuming the D-backs get reasonably good value out of their many early draft picks this year, where could their org ranking end up in 2020? Top 5?
Keith Law: Top 5 is fair.

PhillyJake: Whole Duck: Spatchecock, indirect heat, pan with water underneath the duck to catch fat. Any standard sauce will work.
Keith Law: Interesting. I would assume this would overcook the breasts.

Adam: Any thoughts on the final season of Thrones?
Keith Law: Yes, glad it’s ending so I don’t have to hear about it any more. I hated the first book and never watched the show.

Ytics: I live among Reds fans, and I’ve never seen a group of people so hyped for the possibility of an 80-82 season. A colleague told me “if (8 or 9 separate things) break right, we could be .500 this year!” Makes me wish they’d traded Senzel and Trammell for Kluber. It’d be the baseball equivalent of blowing your savings on a coked-up weekend in Vegas.
Keith Law: Was it worth trading two valuable prospects to LA in pursuit of that goal? I don’t think so.

Cartoons Plural : Jasson Dominguez has gotten Wander Franco-level hype, have you any thoughts on the future Yankees prospect?
Keith Law: If he’s getting that kind of hype it’s not warranted. But I haven’t heard that either.

Mike: do you watch the NCAA basketball tournament (March Madness) and do you fill out a bracket?
Keith Law: No and no.

Matthew: He’s stagnated recently, but do you see a future everyday regular in Lucas Erceg?
Keith Law: Has the ability, but needs to make real adjustments to his approach. Discussed that in the Brewers org report.

Jeff: Are you planning on seeing Luis Robert next week? As a White Sox fan, I hope you’re not!
Keith Law: I’m going to try to see him when I get to Arizona and I expect he will be out with a pulled sphincter or something.

Brian: Can you explain why which position a player plays can impact their bat? I’ve read/heard numerous times that if a player moves to a different position it can impact his bat? I don’t quite understand why that would be the case. I love baseball but never played so I was curious why. Thanks!
Keith Law: Some positions require more work in-game and can lead to wear and tear; asking a player to play a new position, or one he plays poorly, can require more work pregame/between games so that he might be slightly more worn down when hitting.

Grant: Keith, have you ever thought about posting your reading activity on Goodreads? I’d be interested to see what you’re reading. I’m always looking to expand my TBR list.
Keith Law: I mention 90% of the books I read in my posts here – I end every book review with a note on what I’m reading next. I’m not giving my content to Goodreads for them to monetize.

Ryan: I have ESPN+ and The Athletic now. If I want to share something from there with a friend that doesn’t have it, is it okay for me to copy and paste? Also when a writer copies your write up of a prospect and shares it in their own article, is that legal even if they fully credit you?
Keith Law: Copying and pasting something of mine online, such as in a forum or on reddit, is both not okay and a copyright violation. Quoting me in part while discussing a player, or even just discussing my list/column, is fine, and as long as you link to me I appreciate it. I’m not worried about what people copy/paste into emails. Thank you for asking, though – I appreciate that you’ve thought about this.

P.J.: Rio Ruiz is getting good reviews in Orioles camp. He made one of your top 100 lists a few years back. Any chance he’s a late bloomer and an average player at 3B this season for the Birds?
Keith Law: I really doubt it. Hasn’t performed in the high minors at all. When he shines, though, he really shows you all he can.

WAR: Does this mean fWAR is better than rWAR? Is it just a preference, or are you just saying cherry-picking is bad? I believe the big difference between the two for position players is defense, but I’ve never been able to pick up on the industry’s preference.
Keith Law: Regarding Harper, that’s not what I was saying. I meant that when the two differ that much, you can’t cherrypick the worse of the two and wave it around like it’s definitive or even directionally correct.

Spencer: Related to some research I’ve been doing: if you have three players with identical 8 hit tools, how many HR’s should you expect in a full season if their respective power tools are a 2, 5, and 8?
Keith Law: This is too abstract to answer.

J: What is the one ridiculously overplayed classic rock song you NEVER tire of?
Keith Law: The truth is I’ve tired of just about all of them, but Boston’s “More Than a Feeling” has held up pretty well.

Phillies Prospects: Hi Keith – I am the one who asked you last week about people reposting your work. I am happy to make a comment in support, wanted to make sure this is the type of thing that would bother you.
Keith Law: Thank you, I just emailed the site in question.

Tucci Mane: Socialism involves the redistribution of the means of production to the workers, eliminating the non-working owners or investors. The social welfare state is public schools, social security, providing health insurance, etc. We should stop conflating the two things.
Keith Law: Exactly. We don’t teach this at all in school, though. HS economics classes don’t get into economic systems.

Thomas: Shouldn’t a best picture winner be something that can be broadly enjoyed like Black Panther?
Keith Law: No. Many great works of art can’t be “broadly enjoyed.”

Nick: Where have you had the best pasta in the US? Monteverde?
Keith Law: That would be the first name that came to mind. Also Rolf & Daughters, Republique, Barbuzzo, Osteria, and my kitchen.

Ben: I’ve not had the flu since I was a teen (30+ years). I’ve never had a flu shot. I minimize my exposure to others, and wash my hands multiple times a day. Thoughts?
Keith Law: Yeah, you’re lucky, and selfish too. Herd immunity requires more people to get immunized. And if you’re nearing 50, you are at greater risk of serious medical complications if you do get the flu.

Eric: I am Jewish, and have been super pro-Israel most of my life. Only until recently have I realized that defending Israel at all costs was super wrong and I was brainwashed into doing it. Criticizing Israel and AIPAC is definitely NOT antisemetic. Bibi has been absolutely awful, and doing absolutely horrific things to people of different faiths living in Israel. What Rep. Omar said was extremely on-point and not antisemetic. It was, in fact, important for her to point out. We need to stop equating defense of Israel as the only way you aren’t antisemetic. /rant
Keith Law: Thank you. Also, getting Bibi out – he’s in some serious hot water now over corruption charges – would make a huge difference in 1) how much we should support Israel the nation-state and 2) the chances of peace in the region.

Nick: Have you read The Corrections by Jonathan Franzen? I have really enjoyed it so far.
Keith Law: I didn’t care for it that much, mostly because I found the characters so unpleasant.

Chris: No question, but did you happen to hear the Jo Adell interview on “Angels recap podcast”? I was so impressed with his maturity and work ethic as a 19 year old. If he can improve his contact, I expect big things.
Keith Law: I didn’t, but that lines up with everything I’ve heard about him since he was signed.

MikeM: Bird has options left. Why would they cut him. He has no trade value. Stash him at AAA and see if he hits.
Keith Law: Sorry, that’s on me. I should have been more precise – I was thinking “cut” in a nonspecific way. But I do think that Bird has to be a DH, and the Yankees may be better served trading him now rather than burying him in AAA.

Bill: People cite Crash as the worst Oscar winner of recent memory (a well deserved nod) but I find Million Dollar Baby equally hideous…full of one-dimensional characters, manipulative scenes and hackneyed dialogue. Lifetime has done better work…do you have a recent winner that grates on you.
Keith Law: Other than Green Book, which is terrible, I’d say The Artist, which is a trifle and very self-serving (look how important movies are!). The best movie I saw in that cycle was A Separation, which won Best Foreign Language Film, and among BP nominees, Hugo and Midnight in Paris (yeah, I know) were clearly better than The Artist.

Elton: Is Mejia going to become a star in San Diego? Do you think he’s ready this year?
Keith Law: I think he’s ready, and if he stays at C he’s a star.

Chris: I think the guy above may have been asking about Antonio Cabello. Also, they will option Bird to AAA, no reason to cut him entirely, right? It’s not like he’s being blocked by Goldschmidt should things finally click.
Keith Law: That was my first guess – Cabello was my #9 prospect in the Yankees system, and I even had one exec suggest him as a top 100 guy, so yeah, he’s for real.

Andy: With Wieters entering the itinerant stage of his career, if he a disappointment? If you’re the Orioles, are you satisfied with the pick and the value he’s produced? The PECOTA projection skewed expectations, but is 8 years of a starting catcher good value?
Keith Law: Yeah, he’s a bust for a 5th overall pick.

james: how can I get your lists in canada. called espn and they said they can’t do nothing.
Keith Law: did you say signing back up through the VPN didn’t work? Even if you choose digital delivery of the magazine?

Elton: I will be embarking on Charterstone soon with my board gaming friends. Have you played any other legacy board games?
Keith Law: Only that and Pandemic Legacy. Charterstone is wonderful.

Jake: Who is more likely to make an impact in 2020: Vidal Brujan or Gavin Lux?
Keith Law: Lux is closer.

Ryan: How does J.J. Bleday compare to junior year Bryan Reynolds at Vanderbilt?
Keith Law: Bleday more polished, Reynolds more toolsy.

Ben: Do you think Charlotte, Nashville, or Raleigh would be the most viable MLB city?
Keith Law: Nashville of those three. Austin if we’re looking at any city.

PhillyJake: Adding my own $0.02 to the AIPAC discussion – Actually, scratch that. Read Thomas Friedman’s piece in yesterday’s NY Times. I can’t say it any better than he did. PS. Why did Jim Jordan get a pass for his racist reference to Steyer, replacing the S with a $ ? Yeah, I know it’s whataboutism. But there seems to be a double standard.
Keith Law: Of course there’s a double standard. Until the GOP suffers a resounding loss some November, it won’t change.

Dr. Lizardo: Keith, first of all, thanks for the chats and thanks for your postings on vaccinations. Opinion on Jesse Winker, does he make a few all-star teams before he is done?
Keith Law: I feel like he’s the kind of player who deserves to make some All-Star teams and never makes one because high-OBP middling-power LF types don’t make AS teams. But I’m a fan.
Keith Law: Good example of a guy I totally misread in HS. Saw him awful vs a bad prep LHP. Obviously not a tools guy so I didn’t have that as a fallback. Guy gets into pro ball and shows the plate discipline of an advanced 23-year-old. I reversed course right away but that’s still a mistake.

PhillyJake: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/06/opinion/israel-ilhan-omar.html
Keith Law: That link is Thomas Friedman, trying to make the case against Ilhan Omar, but in the process making the case for Ilhan Omar.

Jake: Your ESPN work is pretty firmly behind a paywall, which actually makes a subscription worth something. What about these sites where you get “10 Free Articles”? Do they not realize that either private browsing or clearing your cache is an easy way around this?
Keith Law: So many people won’t bother with workarounds that they likely find it’s effective enough.
Keith Law: OK, gotta move along … went overtime this week since chats the next few weeks may be intermittent as I travel for spring training. Thank you all as always for reading and for all of your questions – so many good ones, baseball and other, that I couldn’t get to this time. I’ll try to do another chat next Thursday as long as my flight is on time.

I have a new draft blog post up, on Carter Stewart and Matt Allan, as well as a Grapefruit League scouting roundup, both for ESPN+ subscribers. My latest board game review for Paste covers Tiny Towns, a pattern-matching game with a clever twist that makes the game harder but faster.

Keith Law: You expose the film in me. Klawchat.

addoeh: Belated Pi Day greetings. What kind of hot fruit did you enjoy last night?
Keith Law: No hot fruit here, but we did have pizza.

SeanE: Legal issues aside, should the Pirates just put Kang at SS and live with the below average defense and (likely) above average offense?
Keith Law: Probably better to plug him in at 3b; don’t think he’d be even a 45 defender at short now given his age and injuries. (I wouldn’t roster him at all, though, because of his off-field issues.)

John: Hi Keith – big fan of your analysis. With it very unlikely Kimbrel is going to land a long term “Chapman-like” deal, would it behoove him to take a 1-year deal and hope the market improves next off season or take the longest term, most lucrative deal offered knowing that it might be his last big contract now heading north of 30 years old?
Keith Law: I’ve been sympathetic towards the players as a whole this offseason since I think it’s clear the owners are banking profits, but Kimbrel and his agent could not have misread the market any worse. He came off a down year by his own standards, was awful the last time we all saw him, and then asked for a contract that would have been the longest ever given to a reliever. Teams in that market spent their money elsewhere. If someone offers him two years now he should take it. Just maximize short-term earnings, knowing the long-term is always volatile for you as a pure reliever (with control questions now), and that the market’s future is very hard to predict.

Aaron C.: As someone who’s been in the industry, do you have any general insight as to how players *really* feel about these international games? Players always *say* they love it publicly, but I’ve always had a hard time believing these creatures of habit like their routines uprooted to play in Japan, England, etc.
Keith Law: I don’t think they like it from that standpoint – it’s exhausting to change time zones to that extent. But I do think they like the cultural aspect. Players are still people so I’m sure some love it because the latter is more important than the former. I happen to enjoy international travel – granted, I don’t have to roll off the plane on to the mound – so I view the physical toll as a cost I’m willing to bear to go experience another culture.

Jeff: So I’m at the Giants/A’s game in Scottsdale last week, and when Bumgarner was pitching, they had the radar gun off. It was on for all A’s, and for other Giants. Is this a team decision? a Bumgarner decision? A little bit of both. He didn’t look great, just wanted to see if this is common practice, since I have never seen it before.
Keith Law: Probably the team’s decision but I don’t know.

JR: Were you “on” the sailing team or crew team at Harvard?
Keith Law: I was not, although oddly enough, they invited me to try out as a coxswain simply because of my weight and size. (I had no interest.)

Rod: Do you see a 40-HR season for Acuña?
Keith Law: I do not.

Scott Upham: Does Kyle Tucker have anything to prove in AAA? Looks like he is ready for prime time to me.
Keith Law: I agree.

parlay: Austin Hays is having a strong spring for the Orioles- hitting to all fields again, and several XBH. Should we toss out 2018 because of the injuries and jump back on his 2017 hype train?
Keith Law: Don’t toss 2018 out entirely, but consider weighting it less than you would for most players. He was a back-end top 100 guy after 2017, and i think if you project average regular for him you’ll be in a good spot.

Jim: What are you thoughts on the rules changes MLB is tinkering with? If you’ve written that up, apologies in advance and shoot me a link
Keith Law: There were a lot, so maybe ask me about specific ones if you’re curious. The one that I liked the most was capping commercial breaks in between innings; now get rid of commercial breaks for pitching changes and we’re really cooking. I’m also glad we’re not seeing a pitch clock, and dismayed that MLB is pushing the 3-batter minimum rule through without the union’s consent.

Jscott022: Of the young pitchers who have a chance to crack the braves opening day rotation (Wright, Touki, Wilson, Fried) which two would you take to follow Newcomb, Gaussman, and Teheran?
Keith Law: I’d put Wilson, Touki, and Fried in the rotation and bounce Teheran.

JR: Which team surprises the most this year and is way better than preseason projections?
Keith Law: I’ll do a predictions column in two weeks.

Mark: What happens if teams wont let their pitchers throw from 2 feet back citing injury concerns? Obviously, the league can just say throw like its a normal distance, but I feel like this wasn’t thought out very well.
Keith Law: I think that rule change is 100% likely to cause injuries.
Keith Law: Like, just don’t. It’s a stupid idea. I’d rather they lower the mound if anything.

James: New pizza/pasta place called Fellow in old town Scottsdale area (Giants) might be worth checking out
Keith Law: Thank you, it’s on my to-do list because the menu was designed by Claudio Urcioli (Pa’ La, ex-Noble Eatery).

Josh: Standard small sample/spring training caveats aside, I’m in a mad scramble to buy back my Austin Hays stock. Super impressed with his bat speed and defensive range. What say you?
Keith Law: Defensive range? No.

Jack: Is Luzardo ready to be a major-leaguer right now?
Keith Law: In what role? To simply be on a major league staff, yes. To be a league-average starter, I’d say less than a 50% chance of that right this minute.

Scott Upham: As a Detroit Tigers fan, it seems like Christian Stewart and Daz Cameron will contribute in 2019 but do they have any budding superstar position players in their entire system?
Keith Law: I don’t think so.

Joel: Keith, I finally was able to watch the movie Detroit. It was unbelievably hard to watch, although I thought it was outstanding. Your thoughts?
Keith Law: Never saw/not interested based on reviews.

Julian: Hunter Barco a top 20 pick with improved strength and arm angle?
Keith Law: Not impossible but I think unlikely.

John: Have you seen/heard of any improvement in Chris Paddacks curveball?
Keith Law: No. I don’t think it will ever improve in a significant way.

Dale: So AZ spring training is far far superior to FL spring training. Baseball, weather, food, girls, driving distance to all the parks. Wouldn’t you agree ?
Keith Law: Yes. I like how you slipped “girls” in there as if that’s a major criterion, by the way. But weather, food, proximity, access to non-baseball culture are all there.

Jim: Mostly i was concerned about the 3 batter min… seems like using an AX for a scalpel problem
Keith Law: I would agree. Why not a two-batter minimum?

Thomas: Would you have the same career right now if you had gone to Arizona State instead of Harvard?
Keith Law: It seems unlikely. There is no doubt that having the two schools I attended on my resume has helped me in my professional life and career. That’s why this scandal is a big deal, IMO.

Dale: So a guy on the Royals is starting opening day that I’ve never heard of. Their weak division might be the o my thing to save them from being all time bad.
Keith Law: I think it’s amazing that a rule 5 pick (you’re talking about Brad Keller, I assume) is their Opening Day starter in his second year. I don’t think he’s as good as his 2018 ERA implies, but that’s a solid find in the usually barren rule 5 draft.

Will: With the new 3-batter rule, will teams now consider grooming some would-be starter prospects into middle inning guys?
Keith Law: That’s already happening. More likely that potential LHR in the draft get hurt, unless they show a weapon for RHB.

Julian: When will your next draft projection be?
Keith Law: If you mean a ranking, like the one I just did, probably in mid-April. I won’t project the first round until May because I have always maintained that anything before that cannot be sufficiently sourced.

Steve: General scouting question for you — can seeing a player in one game dramatically change your opinion of them? Say you came in thinking someone had 40 power but then you see them in their first game of the season hit a dinger 425 feet. Does that happen often where what you thought you were going to see one thing and it’s a totally different player?
Keith Law: Sort of? But maybe not for power. Velocity comes to mind, or even just seeing a pitch I didn’t think a guy had before.
Keith Law: Or just seeing that someone’s body is really different.

Thomas: Hypothetically speaking, if you have an OF with three all-stars and then a young stud in waiting like Eloy, couldn’t you just keep him on the 40 man for years until the stars aren’t as good? Thinking the old FL outfield with Stanton, Yelich and Ozuna, there wouldn’t have been any room for an Eloy.
Keith Law: I think the player would have a grievance after some extended period in AAA where, presumably, he’s demolishing the league.

Jim: Do you see the Yankees grabbing another SP with the latest Severino news?
Keith Law: I would absolutely support them signing Gio.
Keith Law: Will they? I don’t know. But I think he fits.

Justin: Can Dakota Hudson eventually be a league average starter? Or do you think he is bullpen bound? Sounds like STL prefers him over Gant for the 5th starter role.
Keith Law: Pen guy for me. Limited history of staying healthy, very reliant on that cutter.

Dale: Did you see Jeters comments saying paraphrase: “many Fans come to the game and leave the stadium not even knowing or remembering who won”
Keith Law: I did. That’s probably true for me, but I don’t attend games as a fan.

PhillyJake: Cole Tucker arrival in the majors?
Keith Law: Could debut this year but I don’t see impact.

Gus: Hello KLaw, The one new rule that I don’t understand the most from either management or the union side is why limit rosters after September 1? Isn’t it the best interest of the clubs to give as many minor league players possible exposure to the MLB environment?
Keith Law: They haven’t been calling up many guys for years now. I would have liked a limit a bit higher, maybe 30-32, but nobody was calling up the entire 40-man roster like they did in the 1980s. Too much expense and particularly risk if the player came up and got hurt in September or in major-league camp the following March.

Scott C: Donaldson was a worthwhile move, but could you have imagined a worse offseason for the Braves? What are they doing?
Keith Law: Standing pat and betting on internal improvements. Not a terrible strategy, but I think there was some low-hanging fruit in free agency they could have chased.

Scott Upham: Tampa’s injury recovering Jose DeLeon was once one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. What is the best outcome for him now?
Keith Law: He was a solid prospect, not one of the tops; I think there’s league-average starter potential, but it will depend on how his fastball plays. There was some concern it was a little light for him as a starter.

section 34: Which pitchers historically would have been hurt the most by the 3-batter rule? Jesse Orosco came to mind immediately but he could pitch to righties until the very end.
Keith Law: Tony Fossas.

Mac: How much does Vaughn have to hit to justify being picked ahead of Witt Jr or Abrams? Does he have to be the best hitting 1B in baseball for 5+ years?
Keith Law: There’s an implicit assumption there about Witt Jr/Abrams that I’m not sure we entirely agree on, but you omit the other benefit Vaughn might offer: proximity. He’s in the majors in 12-18 months. Maybe sooner if he’s really this good right now. (I’ll see him in a week.) A win today is worth more than a win in five years to contending clubs – and, I believe, in the trade market.

Pat D: I’m trying to eat better and lose weight. I need to broaden my horizons in terms of what I eat, and therefore need to learn to cook better. Are there any dishes you can recommend that are either way
Keith Law: Center your meals on the plants, not the proteins. I think the American diet has always started with the question of what meat we were cooking, and then what sides go with that (steak, therefore potatoes and something green). Instead, start with vegetable dishes and work ‘inward.’ Ottolenghi’s Simple and Hugh Acheson’s The Broad Fork are great vegetable (but not strictly vegetarian) cookbooks.

Mark: Have you heard anything on Corbin Carroll this year yet?
Keith Law: He was in my draft ranking two weeks ago.

Bob Pollard: Saw data in a couple of tweets yesterday that one-batter pitcher appearances are declining. If that’s the case, then why get rid of them?
Keith Law: Eyewash.

JD: I know he’s only 24, but after three identical years do we know what Nomar Mazara has? Or do you still think there’s more to come?
Keith Law: There is more potential there. The probability of him getting to it has declined, but it is still there. A few of my breakout candidates from 2018 didn’t break out but I would double down on them, including him and Giolito, for 2019.

Brendan: Hey Keith, have you read Field of Dreams? I just found out the film was based on a book and was curious if it’s worth picking up. Thanks!
Keith Law: I haven’t. I don’t read much baseball stuff – reading is a hobby and a sort of meditation for me, so I want something different.

Jim: Do you attend a regular boardgaming group? Any games that work well on the road for you? (solo or otherwise). I travel a bit for work and carry a few sometimes.
Keith Law: I co-host a family game night at my local library, and I’ve played with some readers in the area a few times, and joined Bill Baer (NBC Sports, and a total pinko commie)’s game group a couple of times too. (That’s the only time I’ve played 7 Wonders with 7 people. Still great, but so different from the 3-5 player experience.) I often bring One Night Ultimate Werewolf on trips because it’s portable and quick. Jaipur is a great, portable two-player game. The Mind is always in my scouting bag these days to.

steve: I would think that service time issues would be less important for a pitcher. Do teams reflect that when the consider young pitchers in big leagues
Keith Law: A reader mentioned this around Paddack yesterday and I disagreed with him, saying I didn’t think manipulating a pitcher’s service time (especially one with a TJ already on his dossier) was worth doing because nobody can reasonably project a pitcher’s performance and health seven years out. That is just being too clever by half. There is a reason not to promote a pitcher too soon, which is that he might get hurt, as Michael Kopech did, and cost you a year of service and salary. (I say that having argued for Kopech’s promotion last summer. It didn’t work out.)

Steve: Wander Franco or Willie Adames more likely to move to 3B eventually?
Keith Law: Adames for me.

Mac: I know you said you only scout the top of the draft but when you’re at an amateur game do you only bear down on the guy you’re there to see or do you watch other guys who may be later round picks?
Keith Law: If they’re notable. I mentioned a 2020 guy in my draft post this week because he played against Matt Allan.

JD: I’ve always suspected that Manfred’s pace-of-play push is motivated less by a belief that fans care, and more because shorter games are more profitable for business reasons (concentrating ad revenue opportunities, higher carriage fees because it doesn’t crowd out other programming, who knows). Is that an unfair suspicion? If not, what’s the mechanism that actually makes shorter games more profitable?
Keith Law: I have had this suspicion too – would shrinking ad inventory mean higher prices for the inventory that remains? Does viewership decline with game length beyond some threshold? I lack the data to evaluate those suspicions though.

TP: Any good reasons why Texas wouldn’t just let Willie Calhoun play everyday?
Keith Law: Where?

John: I know you’ve answered the question a 1000 times about working in MLB and your reasons re: family, flexibility etc. are obviously very important and reasonable.

Are there times when you’re evaluating prospects though and feel like this isn’t for real? That you’re scouting but not getting any action from your work product?
Keith Law: I may not quite follow the question, but the ‘action’ i get is from you guys. You read, and you pay to read. What more could I possibly ask for? There’s no gratification for a writer like knowing your work is read and valued.

Tommy Fresh: with all the new All Star festivities this year with the election and stuff – will MLB bring in Entertainment 720 to run the show
Keith Law: Pawnee to Cleveland isn’t too bad of a drive.

Ed: If Elvis Luciano pitches like hot garbage this year, is it still worth keeping him on the Jays roster for future potential? What is 1 spot on the 25-man roster worth to a non-playoff bound team?
Keith Law: I don’t think it’s worth doing. Not only is it a dead roster spot, now he doesn’t develop, and he makes more money next year, and there’s the risk he blows out and gets all that salary and service time, and stays on your 40-man, and so on.

Del : Where do you see Dom Smith’s in May: Mets 1st Base, AAA, another team?
Keith Law: Mets 1b.

Rod: Sean Newcomb ever gonna get the walks under control?
Keith Law: I have asked the question of “how” for a while now and I don’t have or hear a good answer.

addoeh: From your last newsletter (insert link to sign-up here), you talked about teams quickly sending up very young players to advanced levels to trick other teams models. Are there teams that will exclusively pick HS seniors and JuCo freshman late in draft to fill-out rosters instead of college seniors to get more opportunities?
Keith Law: I haven’t heard any of that, probably because the HS seniors would ask for more money to sign.

Layne: Recently bought Patchwork after reading your review. Great game. Any 2-player games coming up later this year that you’re eagerly anticipating?
Keith Law: Not off the top of my head but I am always listening. I have Wingspan (1-4 players) here to review, and Solenia (I think also 1-4). I know Corinth, an Yspahan reimplementation as a roll-and-write game, is coming soon, and the original had a solid 2-player variant. But nothing strictly two-player that I’ve heard about just yet.

Scott Upham: Bo Bichette is showing off all his tools in spring training. Other than service time, is there any reason he shouldn’t be the Jays starting SS on Opening Day?
Keith Law: He’s not a good shortstop.

Tim: Any thoughts on Anderson Espinoza return from TJ?
Keith Law: No. Haven’t seen him. Minor league games start today for all 30 clubs, I believe.

JD: I’ve found Splendor to be a great portable game — the whole thing fits in a quart plastic bag, and can be taught in two minutes.
Keith Law: Yes, very good call. Also plays well with two. Carcassonne is also very portable.

Bob Pollard: Sorry, I don’t understand the eyewash comment. Are you saying the data is wrong or MLB is trying to fix a problem that doesn’t exist? Or neither?
Keith Law: Eyewash refers to a solution without a problem, or something you do for perceived value rather than actual value.

Paul Dolan: Do you believe me when I say my team is losing money every year and has lost a lot in the last few years?
Keith Law: I don’t, and even so, your franchise value is appreciating, but that’s not reflected on the income or cash flow statements that you don’t issue to the public.

Geoff: Do you know anything about Trejyn Fletcher who’s now gonna be draft eligible this year as opposed to 2020?
Keith Law: He’s not draft eligible this year, not yet at least. It is possible he will be. He’s a prospect with some questions about the hit tool and a strong commitment to vanderbilt.

Tom: Any thoughts on Ketel Marte playing CF?
Keith Law: If it’s him or Adam Jones, I’ll try Marte. Good athlete, but experience helps in CF.

Tom: Is there any chance that Mountcastle can play a decent 2B, since the issue seems to be his arm, or is he a 1B / COF only?
Keith Law: Cannot see that body and build in the middle of the field.

Confused: This week while visiting my in-laws, my father-in-law–who is a great dad to my wife and grandfather to my child–called Aladdin Jasmine’s “Towelhead” boyfriend. He was quickly reprimanded by his wife, but doesn’t change the fact it happened. How do I reconcile these two polar opposites? It’s extremely troubling, especially as my daughter gets older and Fox News is constantly on the TV…
Keith Law: Harder since it’s not your dad, but consider talking to him about watching his tongue in front of your child. I have had a somewhat similar issue and asked someone to refrain from saying certain things in front of my daughter. It was an uncomfortable conversation but it resolved the issue.

Mike: Amed Rosario look primed for a breakout?
Keith Law: I would like to say yes, but i think he’s still putting the ball on the ground too much.

Lyle: Mariners starting catcher in 2022: 1) Omar Narvaez, 2) Cal Raleigh, 3) Not in system.
Keith Law: Mostly likely 3 but Raleigh is good.

ffballmaster: Have you ever “discovered” a guy? Like went to look at one player scouts told you to look out for and then found another you put on the scouts’ radar?
Keith Law: No, because I don’t go see amateur players unless scouts have already directed me there.

Beetlejuice: Is the service time issue only relevant to players players with a clear path to Major League ABs? Seems easy to imagine a scenario where a player is blocked by an incumbent, held down in AAA so he can get regular ABs, but it’s still unfair to the player from a $$ standpoint because he’s ready to contribute at the major league level. A fix for this problem should be factored into next CBA too, no?
Keith Law: Not sure how you’d fix that, unfortunately. A player who’s blocked by a legitimate major league option is temporarily out of luck.

Ethan: Did you read the story I sent you on Twitter this morning regarding the shootings? I appreciated the like, but just wondering if you actually read it.
Keith Law: Of course, I don’t hit Like if I don’t read and like the story attached.

Mike: Is Logan Davidson a top 10 pick?
Keith Law: Today, absolutely not.

Nick: You see Austin Hays 440 foot shot to dead center?! Think he starts the year in Baltimore?
Keith Law: Gabe Gross led spring training with 8 homers one year.

Bruce: In all fairness, you can’t pay players in Franchise Value, much like you can’t pay athletes in tuition credits.
Keith Law: No, but you can borrow against it, or sell equity, if you’re actually that strapped for cash.

finny: What are the chances at this point that Dane Dunning actually doesn’t have to have TJ surgery? He was hurt last fall, he’s hurt again, and he’s visiting Dr. James Andrews. Isn’t TJ just an inevitability?
Keith Law: I’d like to be wrong but it feels like it.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson can make the opening day rotation, and if so what kind of season do you project for him?
Keith Law: Too many guys ahead of him but I think he could do it. Slider looked better when I saw him Tuesday and he fills the zone.

Brandon J: Aside from taking three years off his age, what does Tony Gonsolin need to do this year to reach or surpass the lofty standing of his fellow Dodgers’ prospect Dustin May
Keith Law: He’s not catching May for potential. He’s plenty good on his own, though. Three legitimately above-average pitches. Good athlete. Heck of a pick by the Dodgers.

Andie: Is tanking for higher draft picks as big of a concern in MLB as it is in the NBA? Are there discussions / conversations about how to minimize / eradicate it?
Keith Law: Less of a concern specifically – as in, teams do not tank specifically for higher draft (and international) position. It’s more like a fringe benefit to deciding you’re not going to spend money to chase after your 71st win. Part of that philosophy was to play your own prospects or hunt for value on waivers/minor league free agents, but not every non-competitive team is doing that second part, and then you get tanking.
Keith Law: Also, I’m good with changing the top of the draft to eliminate any incentive to lose more games. The only reason the team with the worst record picks first is because we’ve always done it that way.

Jordan: Starting to go through your top 100 novels list, will there be an update sometime? Thanks!
Keith Law: I would really like to – it’s on the list of things I’d like to do on the dish. I did get the Philly restaurants list posted, so that was an accomplishment.

Hank: Jesse Winker. Can he add some power to his elite on-base skills?
Keith Law: I think that park helps him more than it will most players.

Nick: Any idea who has registered the highest exit velocity since it’s been tracked?
Keith Law: Judge, right?

KC: What can a healthy Jorge Soler still be for the Royals?
Keith Law: Above-average regular in RF.

Mick: Are you surprised how well Tulo is playing short? Looks like he’s locked in to start there with the Yanks.
Keith Law: It’s spring training. Nothing surprises me, and almost none of it matters.

Ryan V.: Have you had a chance to play Root’s Riverfolk expansion yet? I just saw that Leder Games has a second expansion in the works, but have not yet managed to try out Riverfolk, and am curious to know how the expansions affect the game’s experience…
Keith Law: I haven’t – I rarely play expansions since I’m always trying new games.

Kevin : Weird question…my mom (who is 69) and I are aligned politically (both despise republicans). However, she is very religious…me not so much. The other day her church had a speaker in about evolution vs creationism etc. This guy was going through the earth is only 18,000 years old routine. Mom and I had an argument about it (I even gave her bill nyes book)…how would you handle this?
Keith Law: Nice. I might try sources who try to reconcile or at least don’t try to divide science and faith – really, I think most religious people accept that the earth is 4 billion years old. Young Earth Creationists are dumb, but they’re also a minority.

Kevin : Are you going to arod/jlo wedding?
Keith Law: I assume my invitation is in the mail.

Mike: If you were a GM, would you want your player impeding in the HR derby’s? A lot of money for the player if they win, but seems to mess up swings.
Keith Law: It doesn’t mess up swings – that’s a myth. Let the kids play.

Tom C: Brendan: the book for Field of Dreams is called “Shoeless Joe”. It’s a worthwhile read, but it’s also pretty different than the movie.
Keith Law: Thanks.

Michael Conforto: The Mets should absolutely upgrade from Vargas to Keuchel right?
Keith Law: Yes but they won’t.

Ryan: Do you have any ideas what players the Dbacks are targeting in the draft? If its too early for that, what do you think their strategy should be? Thank you!
Keith Law: Too early. Take the best players available, which may entail moving a little money around to grab some first-rounders who fall, since the Dbacks have several extra picks.

DF: Re. the Reds. If they are out of it in July, do you see a chance to recoup similar value to what they gave up with Puig, Wood, etc.?
Keith Law: Zero chance.

mike sixel: Could use a top 100 movies list……
Keith Law: Someone asked that in the comments recently … I feel like I have too many gaps in my own movie-watching history that I couldn’t do a credible list.

Uli Jon: Started “Lincoln in the Bardo”. I like experimental but almost gave up on it. Now I’m all in and I think it might be genius. Thanks for the recommendation.
Keith Law: Similar reaction – at the start I thought it might be a gimmick, but it’s brilliant.

Ron: Hi Keith-did you check out, Kiriloff, Lewis or Javier at all? Any chance to?
Keith Law: I linked to my ST notes above. I did not go to the west side of Florida at all.

Scott: Have you seen/read Girl on a Train and if so what were your impressions?
Keith Law: No. Not sure I’ve heard of that.

Andy: Who does taking away the August waiver trading period help? Like, who was pushing for that? I would think that some players, especially those nearing the end of contracts, would WANT to go to playoff teams. GMs want to turn their Gios into an A ball reliever with a small chance. Owners want to save small amounts of money if their season isn’t going well. Why was that one of the changes that one side wanted?
Keith Law: I’m not sure but I wondered if players disliked the disruption to their own lives of late-season trades.

Jake Lawson: So…Wil Myers in center and Mike Moustakas at second. Are either of them likely to be even passable at these positions?
Keith Law: Moustakas probably not. Myers hell no.

Todd: In all seriousness, how much is Fox News to blame for our current mess?
Keith Law: A lot. More than people wish to acknowledge. Maybe it’s time to ask establishments you frequent that have televisions going all the time to turn it off.

Rick Sanchez: When do you think Hiura hits the majors?
Keith Law: July.

Adam: Love the chats Keith, thanks for taking the time to do them. With Sano’s latest injury, it’s hard for this Twins fan to see any reason that he’ll be successful consistently long term. Do you think he’ll ever put it together?
Keith Law: For stretches, at least. Lot of hitting ability and raw power, with an idea at the plate.

Imre: Just wanted to pop in and proudly say we got out 4 year old daughter her latest round of vaccinations yesterday!
Keith Law: Excellent news. Most of us are sane. If we convince another tiny sliver of the population to join us in vaccinating our kids, many or most of these outbreaks will stop.

Kevin : I asked my employer to stop playing Michael Jackson on the intercom…small step but hopefully more follow suit.
Keith Law: I’m actually surprised that more outlets haven’t just quietly shelved his music.

SeanE: Would you say the same about CNN? They clearly have bias the other way. Not sure there is objective media anymore….at least in national politics.
Keith Law: AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH oh that is fucking hilarious.

Todd: The democratic nominee in 2020 is…….?
Keith Law: Dunno but I’m voting for them.

Tom: How would you resolve service time manipulation?
Keith Law: You can’t, right? You can make it harder, and you can make it less lucrative/valuable, but you can never truly stop it.
Keith Law: Paying minor leaguers more would help. I’ve seen proposals for tying free agency to total time in pro ball, minors + majors, and for tying it to age. Each proposal has benefits over the status quo and will also disadvantage certain players.

Geoff: Gritty 2020?
Keith Law: Oh hell yes.

Johnny Lecherous: Happy Friday, KLaw. Last week someone asked if 2007 #5 overall draft pick Matt Wieters was a bust. Checking the 50 top 5 picks in the decade from 1997-2006, the average career total was 15-16 WAR — compared to just under 20 for Wieters. (That’s Baseball-Reference WAR, for what it’s worth.) So that very cursory study would claim that Wieters was more or less a typical outcome. Sadly.
Keith Law: But he wasn’t a typical #5 pick. He was #1 or #2 in the draft – I had him at 1, I think BA had him at 2 (They were right) – on most boards. I certainly never heard anyone tell me at the time that he was flawed. He slipped to 5 because teams 2-4 didn’t want to meet his bonus demands.

SeanE: So CNN is right down the middle. You have been spending too much time on the beach in Arizona….oh wait….
Keith Law: Strawman, and I haven’t lived in Arizona since 2013. Take the L, Seane.

Kevin : Is trump worse than you thought he would be…I had extremely low expectations in November of 2016 but somehow he has been even worse.
Keith Law: He’s what I feared. The federal government is slashing science budgets and programs left and right and no one even notices because we’re too busy reacting to him lighting something else on fire.

Ridley Kemp: Speaking of musicians who are best left forgotten: Michael Jackson and R. Kelly are being removed from playlists, but Ted Nugent the Rolling Stones, and The Mamas and The Papas get a pass. Any idea why there would be a different standard?
Keith Law: Timing? Those revelations (and crimes) were longer ago.

Thomas: David Bowie had a teenage relationship, e.g. statutory rape. Should he not be played either?
Keith Law: I can’t tell you where to draw that line for yourself. You should at least ask yourself the question on Bowie and his contemporaries who engaged in similar behavior. I don’t love relativistic approaches to judging such crimes, but I could not agree that Bowie is in the Kelly/Jackson category.

Kevin : who even likes Ted Nugent?
Keith Law: I have never actually met a Ted Nugent fan. I used to really like that style of faux-metal, too, but never liked any of his songs.

Corey: Draft idea, versions of which i’ve seen elsewhere: 1st five picks are the 1st five non-playoff teams, then the rest in the normal order. Incentivizes teams to win
Keith Law: Yep, that’s one I’ve heard and like. Or a lottery. Or take the top N picks and make them a sort of controlled free agency – teams in that range can submit bids on players, who then go to the highest bidders in that group, and then from picks N+1 forward it’s a draft again.

Andy: Add Led Zeppelin to the list of bands who were lucky their scandals happened before the current time frame.
Keith Law: There are some ugly stories with them, if I remember correctly. Motley Crue too, surprising exactly nobody.

Tim: Should any person (even low income blue collar workers) who are guilty of domestic violence be fired and never hired again or does that just apply to MLB players?
Keith Law: MLB players are public figures hired to represent a franchise and perform for (and often spend time with) children in particular. If you can’t see that difference, I can’t help you.

Blake: You (correctly) said Harper would sign with whoever paid him the most. Do you think any players go for fit/location over money? I remember Dawson supposedly told the Cubs he’d play for whatever number they wanted.
Keith Law: Dawson said that to challenge collusion. Some players near the end of their careers will do that – Kerry Wood comes to mind. But peak free agents do not.

JD: Speaking of slashing science budgets, have you read Michael Lewis’s “The Fifth Risk”? Short, demoralizing read about our current government that doubles as a paean to devoted civil servants and the unheralded jobs government takes on.
Keith Law: I won’t for that reason. I’m sure it’s excellent.

Chris: At this point Gio probably couldnt even start a game til mid April at the absolute earliest, so is the idea for the Yanks’ going after him as insurance for Severino being out longer than the first month? Otherwise they could be fine w a month of Cessa/German, no?
Keith Law: He’s depth for the whole year, though. Someone else will get hurt or need some time off. I doubt CC makes 30 starts, for example.

Tom: How did you figure out your red meat allergy/sensitivity? I am going through some issues myself and am wondering if you know about a test that I don’t. A full elimination diet is pretty difficult with a FT job and 2 kids under 3. Hoping for an easier path…
Keith Law: We knew we had the inborn error of metabolism from when my daughter was born and then they tested me and found I had it too. (It’s autosomal recessive, so she got one defective gene from me and one from mom, but I also have two defective genes, and the one I gave my daughter was apparently unique. We were very popular around the hospital for a few days.) My daughter pieced together the “eat beef = feel like crap” connection, although to be honest I was just in denial.

mike sixel: I am all for a controlled FA type “draft”. The teams that don’t make the playoffs get $X to sign 1-3 players, say, for a week or two. Then there is the regular draft, or a new FA where the amount you can spend on one player is capped. Players can choose if team or money is more important. Teams can choose to put more eggs in 1-2 baskets, or spread their risk.
Keith Law: Right? And then the top draft kids might get something closer to market value.
Keith Law: There are really only 2-5 such players in any draft class anyway. They get screwed.

Kevin : People always bring up cutting regulations as why they like trump, but is that a good thing? I mean at some point I like clean water/air plus we cannot have companies like Boeing self regulate.
Keith Law: Right – people who say they want fewer regulations probably don’t mean they want zero safety checks on our food supply (which was never something the USDA etc did well anyway).

adambulldog: Do arb-eligible players receive MLB compensation if they are optioned to the minors?
Keith Law: Depends on their contracts. If they went to arbitration they will get their major-league salary. You can be arb-eligible but accept a split deal if, say, you were non-tendered.

Blake: Any advice on getting someone (teen) to participate in therapy when they really don’t want to? We’ve been through 7-8 therapists so far, tried meds, nothing works.
Keith Law: I wish I had a good answer other than try to find a therapist your teen likes on a personal level, so that therapy becomes like a conversation.

Mike: How fucked up do you have to be to come to a baseball writer’s chat and try to write a gotcha question defending men who engage in violence against women?
Keith Law: Every week.

Henry: Are owners required to report revenue reports to MLB every year? If so, can’t the Union sue as part of the freedom of information act to determine if there is free agency collusion, or an effort to maximize owner profit?
Keith Law: FOIA covers information from government agencies. Doesn’t apply here. The union could demand such information in the CBA but the owners wouldn’t agree to it.

Rick Sanchez: Do you think Wander Franco makes a Soto-like splash in the majors next year as a teenager?
Keith Law: 2020, maybe, but not this year.

Kevin : On average how many questions do you get in these chats?
Keith Law: It’s many hundreds. I don’t have a quick way to count but there are over 330 of you with this chat open right now even though we’re 72 minutes in.
Keith Law: That’s all for me – I have some errands to run and then a weekend at home before I head to Arizona. Thank you as always for reading and for all of your questions! Look for more scouting posts next week as well as my annual breakouts column.

My annual list of potential breakout players is now up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: I need for you to be reasonable. Klawchat.

barbeach: KLaw thanks as always for the chat. What are your thoughts on Gio Gonzalez…does he have anything left?
Keith Law: More than that. I think he can be a league-average starter for someone. I find it very hard to believe his claim that he didn’t receive *any* offers before yesterday. Maybe he didn’t get any offers he thought were fair – I can believe that, in this market – but he would make at least 20 rotations better.

Bay of Puigs: hey Keith, can you please suggest a few NL starting pitchers who you expect will take a big step forward this year?
Keith Law: My breakouts column went up this morning: https://klaw.me/2Ctw1us Anyone I feel like that about is in the column.

Kid Koala: Is this the year Tyler Glasnow puts it all together?
Keith Law: I would bet no.

Richard: So it looks like Alex Reyes starts his season in the Cardinals’ pen. Think he can still develop into a Top 50 starter this year, or is health too great an obstacle?
Keith Law: I see two obstacles: The fact that he has barely pitched the last few years, which would make it unlikely he can jump to 100-120 innings without incident, and a delivery that seems to result in him getting hurt.

Ridley: With Miley and McHugh in the rotation, Peacock likely joining them and Whitley around in midseason, do you think Josh James can still be an impact starter in Houston this year? (Or ever)?
Keith Law: Yes, this year and going forward. I’d much rather start James than Peacock.

Moe Mentum: Besides baseball, what was the last professional sporting event you attended? How about attended *and enjoyed* if that’s a different answer?
Keith Law: I don’t remember. I went to a hockey game in Toronto in 2003 or so. That might be it. Even if I’m not working, being at a professional sporting event feels like I’m at work.

Scotty Jetpack: Hi Keith – do you see Kingery as anything more than a super-utility player moving forward? Based on his power/speed combo and success in the minors, I was expecting more, and most likely so were the Phillies’ brass when they handed him 6/$24M (with $65 total possible) before he even made his MLB debut. He was one of the worst position players in the MLB last year statistically, but due to his versatility, he’s currently the backup SS, 2B, and 3B and can also play OF in a pinch, which is valuable. But as long as we have Cesar Hernandez at 2B, I don’t see where he fits everyday. Thoughts?
Keith Law: He doesn’t fit everyday on the current Phillies but I think he’s going to end up a regular. He’s a ++ defender at second.

Ken: Chris Russo took a lame shot at you the other day on the radio saying what in the world did you know about sports in reference to a caller who called saying that the Angels were improving with the 7th ranked farm system. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I think you wasted your time listening to him. Go watch paint dry instead.

Alex: Best book for dealing with anxiety you’ve ever read?
Keith Law: Fully Present.

Perd Hapley: K-Law I have a question for you and my question is this. When does the international signing period begun and end…for those who callers who don’t know an international signing period is what?
Keith Law: Starts July 2nd, although the main prospects have agreements in place long before that, as much as two years before.

Craig Kimbrel: At this point, am I likely to get a bigger contract if I wait to sign until after the draft in June?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. The draft pick was never the issue; it’s the demand for a six-year deal plus the poor performance in October.

Ivan: Given the 2019 rotation uncertainty, should Atlanta sign Dallas Keuchel to a 1 year deal?
Keith Law: It wouldn’t hurt them but they have so much internal pitching depth I think they benefit less from adding Keuchel than most contenders would.

Alan: Hunter Bishop. Give us the deets! The helium legit? Is he a CF long-term? Should we expect a jump in your rankings?
Keith Law: Not a CF. Clearly a first-rounder right now.

Ben: What are you thoughts on what the Tiger’s should look to do at pick 5? Thanks
Keith Law: Best player available. That’s probably a college position player – I don’t think there’s a college starter in the top ten, and there might be just one HS pitcher up there.

Jarry: Thoughts on Ichiro’s two game farewell? I know they won so it didn’t hurt them, but offensively he’s at a Tebow level right now. Seems crazy that they did this.
Keith Law: Crazy how? Hall of Famer on both sides of the ocean gets to play his final games in his home country, with the MLB team where he spent most of his career, in two games that really don’t mean anything to Seattle since they’re not contending.

Zac: Eloy Jimenez extension good or bad? Will this be the new norm for teams to get 8 years of control?
Keith Law: Good for him, good for the team (with some risk), perhaps not great for players as a whole, but how could you tell any player to turn down that money when he has yet to earn a single big-league paycheck?

Dr. Bob: What do you think of Fangraphs incorporation of pitch framing into catcher’s WAR? Yadier Molina now moves up to 13th all time. He is in the negative on offense, but has the highest defensive numbers in history. Does this change the debate?
Keith Law: It doesn’t change the debate, although it was funny how many BFIBs seemed to think it did. This isn’t new data; it is a combination of data we already had. I said on Twitter, though, that I think Fangraphs made a colossal mistake in doing this. You can no longer use their WAR to compare catchers from this era to those in previous eras – was Johnny Bench a great framer, with his gigantic hands? Fisk? Carter? Maybe one of them was terrible, too, and we have no idea.

Zac: Are Michael Fulmers best years behind him?
Keith Law: I hope not.

Sean: Is durability in position players a real thing? Seems like injuries are randomly distributed and you can’t predict future games played based on prior injury history, but not sure which side the data supports, do you have any insights?
Keith Law: Yes. Staying healthy is a skill for position players. For pitchers, though, I don’t think we know much at all; by the time we can say a pitcher is durable his durability may be past tense.

Devin’s Cow: Hi Keith, please moooove this question to the top of your queue: what are your thoughts on these early regular season games in Japan? The week delay between these games and the rest of the opening days seems odd and sort of jarring. These feel more like international exhibition games, especially with the crazy early start times in the US.
Keith Law: Great for the sport, hard on the players.

Tom: So even though service time manipulation is no longer an issue with Eloy Jimenez signing a long-term deal, the Sox will still keep him down in AAA for some period of time, right? I mean, if they call him up right away isn’t that the same as admitting that they sent him down for non-baseball reasons in the first place?
Keith Law: What’s the consequence? If they call him up right away, so what? He’s not filing a grievance after signing this deal (and maybe agreed not to do so).

Sean: I keep reading that Nick Pivetta is going to break out this year. I am still very skeptical. What are your thoughts?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I think he’s miscast as a traditional starter and see no reason to rethink that.

Jon V: The recent extensions make a lindor long term deal in Cleveland even more unlikely. Would you ride out his contracted window or look to move him at some point after this season?
Keith Law: I’d move him after this season, because I think you can get the sun and the moon for him.

J Dawg: How good can Braves Kyle Wright be this year?
Keith Law: Maybe league-average this year. Would probably guess a little below for now, although I think he has more potential in the long term.

Jon V: Does Bauer’s personality impact his trade value? Does his stated desire to go year by year after his arb years impact his trade value?
Keith Law: I am sure some teams would shy away from him, fearing that he’ll create some unwanted controversy or, worse, do something to get himself suspended, but his talent is also such that (I’m guessing) the majority of teams would just take him. There are teams that have no problem taking domestic abusers as long as they have a modicum of talent remaining. The Pirates welcomed Kang back after multiple DUIs, including a hit-and-run, and a sexual assault allegation.

Drew: How would you handle Chris Paddack this season for the Padres?
Keith Law: Just start the guy.

Jeff: Going up to Corvallis to watch Rutschman and Vaughn this weekend? That’s a nice matchup.
Keith Law: That’s the plan although the weather doesn’t look great.

Joseph: So were you completely against the Ichiro 2019 saga like you are against a hypothetical Tebow callup or are you a hypocrite?
Keith Law: How stupid must you be to compare a Hall of Famer like Ichiro to a guy who hasn’t even hit in the minors? I’m surprised you didn’t somehow mix up your and you’re in there.

Tony: Apologies if you’ve been asked this one before but do you think it’s possible that Oakland knew Addison Russell was a budding dirt bag? If I recall he was rocketing into the top 5 overall when traded. Would a team keep this type of info private?
Keith Law: I never heard a word of this until Russell’s ex first posted about it on IG.

Chris: Just curious, do you regularly get out of the blue replies to 2 year old tweets like Soundsing Mad Yadi Fan yesterday?
Keith Law: No. Some BFIB account retweeted that, and then a handful of people too slow to look at a timestamp started yelling at me.

Ben: Think Daniel Lynch starts in HighA? Or could be pushed to AA?
Keith Law: My guess is high A but not for very long.

CH: Wheeler will be Mets best SP this year. Tell me I’m wrong!
Keith Law: You’re wrong.

Todd: Silly question, all things equal, did the Yankees make the right choice in choosing from the Cubs Gleyer instead of Eloy?
Keith Law: Yes, not that there’s a huge gap.

MJ: Do you think Bryse Wilson pitches a significant amount of innings (say >100) at the major league level this year? Can he be at least league average?
Keith Law: I’m a huge fan but I think he’s probably behind too many other guys in their starter queue at the moment to predict that many starts (that’s probably 15+ starts in the majors).

Erik: I love Jake Bauers’ approach (ie all the walks) last year but his average cratered, especially in the second half. What are your thoughts on him and can he be at least a league average player given his defensive shortcomings?
Keith Law: I think that’s the most he can be, with the lack of power and negative defensive value.

Tribe Called Jest: Higher ceiling youngster, Lenny Torres or Ethan Hankins?
Keith Law: If Hankins’ stuff ever returns, it’s him.

Gritty: Ichiro earned a sendoff. What has Tebow done to deserve the attention he’s gotten thus far?
Keith Law: Threw a football, and not well.

Aubrey: Do you still believe in the Johan Santana development model of using a young starter in the bullpen first, then to the rotation? What makes a young guy like Forrest Whitley a good or bad candidate for that role?
Keith Law: I believe in it wholeheartedly. If I ran a team I’d try to break every starter in that way – in long relief, though, not as a one-inning reliever. It’s a planned development path, not a “stick him in the bullpen, let the manager use him however” deal.

Kevin : Is there a point where you are to tall to be an effective major leaguer?
Keith Law: A fair question. We’ve never had a 7′ big leaguer. Is that because it doesn’t work, or because they’re selected into basketball? There are certainly diminishing returns to height beyond at 6’6″.

Rick Sanchez : I wanted to just give Pete Buttigieg a quick pop. I feel like the only reason he’s behind candidates like Beto and Kamala in the polls is because he doesn’t grab media attention as well as they do, especially through social media. It kills me how much influence social media has these days! I encourage everyone to check out an interview of this guy- he’s super sharp and laser focused, with a great resume to back it all up. I’d recommend checking out his interviews from the Washington Post or Pod Save America. He also came on Chris Wallace’s show, which I wish more Dems would do!
Keith Law: Two thoughts. One, yeah, he’s been very, very impressive so far. He appears to be one of the most intelligent candidates, declared or rumored. And two, it doesn’t take much for a candidate like him to surge in the runup to the primaries – I’ve mentioned before how Clinton was seen as a longshot in 1991 and won the election, and pre-scandal Gary Hart went from extreme longshot to the close runner-up in 1984.

Danny: Is Spencer Jones the type of pitcher the Yankees typically target? (he seems like the only Oppenheimer special-SoCal pitcher- in the top 2 rounds)
Keith Law: No, and he hasn’t been very good in the early going.

Kevin : I know it’s never going to happen but would you be in favor of a relegation system for mlb?
Keith Law: No.

AGirlHasNoName: What’s the best use of twitter as a newbie? I mostly have been using it as a news filter, is that it? Otherwise reading the replies seems to lower my opinion of humanity.
Keith Law: That’s probably the best use. And/or follow people who tweet interesting links.

Discount Steve Urkel: Have you seen Luis Robert this spring?
Keith Law: Nope. Tried Monday, he wasn’t playing. Have had other priorities since. I can only chase a shadow for so long/

Kevin : What do you drink when you are on the road (besides coffee)?
Keith Law: Tea or water. That’s it.

Esteban: what’s the difference between an above average and a plus pitch? Let’s use a curve for instance, is it simply inches of break? Or is it a multitude of things like velo, control etc.? Can a slow breaking ball be as effective as a hard breaking ball?
Keith Law: Do hitters swing and miss at it? How often? That’s really all that matters in the end.

Mark: Do you think we will see more young players sign extensions as a reaction to the uncertainty in the CBA (ie they would be afraid that the union would continue to bargain in favor of veteran players at the expense of young players)?
Keith Law: These deals aren’t new. I don’t think this is a substantial change in philosophy for teams or players.

Sean: How many major league innings will Daniel Lynch pitch this year?
Keith Law: Zero.

Sean: Who breaks settles into a rotation spot first – Adonis Medina or Spencer Howard?
Keith Law: Breaks or settles? Howard is the clear starter prospect. Medina is probably more likely a reliever than a starter.

Joe: Do some associate scouts get paid? I read a news article recently that said that an associate scout had to sign a contract with a team. How many associate scouts do most teams have?
Keith Law: That role barely exists today.

Dan: What are your thoughts on Jeter Downs? Does he have star upside? He had a very impressive debut last year but I haven’t seen a ton about him.
Keith Law: Above-average upside, not star.

Kevin : Any chance the screwball will come back in vogue, or is it to hard on your arm?
Keith Law: There’s a very strong belief throughout baseball that it leads to arm problems. I find that somewhat amusing because so does every other fucking pitch guys throw.

JP: no question, just a kudos to the Blue Jays for being first at Making America’s Pastime Resemble A Living Wage.
Keith Law: Absolutely – they’re not getting quite enough credit, IMO, because it’s easy to say that they didn’t do enough. They did more than any other team has done, by a lot, so why not praise them for it and hope it provides other teams with an incentive to follow suit or further raise the ceiling for minor leaguers?

Greg S: Would Navy RHP Noah Song be a day 1 pick were teams not contending with a 2 year military commitment? Is he the best service academy prospect to pop up?
Keith Law: I don’t think so, and I don’t know the answer to the second question. Probably better for Jim Callis, who’s done this longer.

Rico Brogna : Any reason to think if Pivetta adds more consistency that he can eventually be the #2 starter behind Nola?
Keith Law: No. His issue isn’t consistency.

Shane: Thoughts on the Woodstock 50 line-up?
Keith Law: I could not care less about that.

Jeff: The Mets seem serious about breaking camp with both Smith and Alonso. That’s dumb, right?
Keith Law: I just don’t know how you play either of them enough to figure out what to do with them both. If they had the DH spot for Alonso, sure, but for now they don’t.

Rick C: Again here you brought up the flaw of adding catcher framing to WAR. I would be curious how you reconcile this with the incorporation of other advanced defensive metrics into WAR that have only existed since the early 2000’s.
Keith Law: Because we have reasonable proxies for defensive value for previous eras. That’s a bad analogy.

J: 80’s Aerosmith vs
80’s Motley Crue
Keith Law: Blech. Crue started to go downhill after Too Fast for Love. I don’t think Aerosmith did anything good after the ’70s, though.

Slippery Pete: The Luzardo news makes me sad. Should I cling to the silver lining that it makes it easier for Oakland to navigate his innings limit this year?
Keith Law: Depends on whether his rotator cuff is just sore or actually screwed up.

Mike: The Giants have kept Bart in major league camp a long time. Is there anything to read into that or does it mean anything?
Keith Law: No, teams need extra catchers anyway.

MattB: Whenever I read your work, I always wish there were more people out there like you. People who were broadly curious and interested in the world. Thanks for everything!
Keith Law: Well that’s a very kind comment, thank you. I have always been a curious person, even as a kid. I feel kind of lucky that it never faded.

CH: How would you handle Mets catching situation? Think I’d go Ramos and Mesoraco
Keith Law: Seems like a good plan to me.

Jake L.: If you were given 400+ MIL, what would your 1st purchase be? Would you like to be seen as “rich and irrelevant”?
Keith Law: Rich and irrelevant seems like a wonderful fate to me. Granted, Mr. Trout has to work for that money, but I’d be plotting my retirement in Italy.

Graig: Is Ryan O’Hearn anything? Good numbers last year, seems to have the starting job, but I assume (being a regular reader of yours) I would’ve heard more about him by now
Keith Law: I think he can repeat what he did last year, or something close. Makes hard contact. Poor defender.

Drew: I’ve been struggling with anxiety recently, and reading your Stigma Fighters piece helped me regain equilibrium after trying to go off my SSRIs. I wanted to thank you for your openness in discussing your own mental health, and to ask whether you’ve ever tried the Headspace app for meditation.
Keith Law: Only briefly although my therapist has recommended it. I don’t meditate nearly often enough.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: Keith– are you surprised how well Pete Alonso has hit (i.e., more than just HRs) this spring? Also very impressed how Dom Smith has done (don’t know if you saw the piece that he is using a CPAP machine for better sleep, so that is having a + impact.) The Mets say they may carry both. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I am not surprised by how well/poorly any player has done in spring training because it means nothing.

Kevin : Do you think the anti-vax people that attack you on Twitter are actual real people or from a troll factory?
Keith Law: Both. Some are bots. Some are parents whose children are neuroatypical (e.g., autistic) and have been unable to accept that their children are different, thus sending them to find someone to blame. They’re all dangerous to the rest of us, though.

alex: Os are having Mountcastle work at 1B as well as 3B this spring. Given his (lack of arm), would you have tried LF (I heard he has been or 2B) for him? Thanks
Keith Law: He is way too big for 2b. LF should work.

Kevin : Was there any other colleges besides Harvard you were considering?
Keith Law: I applied to 12, which is more to say my parents decided I would apply to 12 (bear in mind I was 16 at the time, hardly capable of deciding what to wear to school on any given day). Harvard, Yale, Princeton, Virginia, William and Mary, Georgetown, Colgate, Washington University, Cornell, Duke, Wesleyan, Johns Hopkins.
Keith Law: I ended up choosing between Harvard and William & Mary, which offered me some kind of scholarship and also seemed to offer a much better student experience. I would almost certainly have enjoyed W&M more, but I’m well aware what the Harvard name has done for me (and the privilege it affords me).

Jake L.: Is the Snell 15K pay raise really a “bad look,” considering he was sent down twice to AAA in 2017 because he was insanely inconsistent and inefficient and then it finally all clicked on for him in 2018?
Keith Law: No, it’s the damn system.

Danny: What charities do you give to?
Keith Law: My #1 charity has been the Food Bank of Delaware for the past several years. It’s direct help to people who need it. I just gave $500 to them last week out of my first advance payment for book number two, because they’re great and they’ve been building a new warehouse/facility. fbd.org.

Hunter Greene: Huge year for me this year. What level should I be pitching in by the end of the year?
Keith Law: Double-A would be great, but healthy is the most important thing.

Dan: What are your expectations on Joe Ross as he makes his full-season return from injury? On a similar note, any concern for Lance McCullers and his ability to keep that curve ball next year?
Keith Law: Considered Ross for the breakouts piece but couldn’t find a real reason for optimism beyond “I’ve always liked that guy.” And his stuff wasn’t as good last year when he did pitch. Concern on McCullers was/is ability to stay healthy with that arm action.

Mark: Have you ever eaten at any of Thomas Keller’s restaurants?
Keith Law: Only Bouchon Bakery which was great.

Jim: I can probably predict it, but any thoughts about the KY governor (guess which party) who took his (nine) kids to a “pox party”?
Keith Law: If you tolerate this, then your children will be next.

Todd: Still relatively high on Domingo Avevedo? It should be time for him to make it to the majors
Keith Law: Have I ever been high on him?

Frank: As a former resident of Arizona do you have anything to add to the general commentary that being president and attacking a deceased war veteran who served his country his entire life is about as classless and petty as someone can be?
Keith Law: Yes. Let him rant and attack. I had this thought the other day: If Warren ends up the Democratic candidate, and Trump spends months calling her “Pocahantas” and other slurs and just generally being awful, will it end up helping Warren by reminding anyone actually on the fence of the kind of person the President is?

Guest: Kirilloff seemed like a great pick in 17 when the Twins were able to get him with a mid round pick. Was the reason he was available that far into the round because he doesn’t play a premium position?
Keith Law: Yes, also a cold-weather kid, and not a premium tools/athlete. Always trepidation over bat-first HS position players.

Kyle KS: If you’re the Cardinals and your 4th starter is Wainwright and the battle for 5th starter is Gant, Gomber, Hudson, etc. you sign Keuchel right? Seems like if you’re going for it then you improve that back end rotation right?
Keith Law: (nods)

alex: Are you expecting any former top prospects to be DFA-ed as we get to opening day (because they are out of options)? If so, who is a great change of scenery candidate? thanks
Keith Law: Isn’t Swihart out of options? Not a DFA candidate but maybe a trade guy.

JP: why not start with a 2 batter minimum, instead of going straight to 3?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to this.

dave m: Seeing as Fully Present is your go to book for anxiety I assume you practice mindfulness. Did you have trouble at first applying the practice to your daily life? I’m struggling to figure it out. Thanks
Keith Law: I would say it took me a few years to get to the point where I could apply it in difficult situations – learning to stay present and not let the anxiety of a moment overwhelm me.

Johny: So Harvard was your safety school?
Keith Law: No that’s Yale.

Jake L.: In a conversation about Brandon Lowe, you said that stats like wRC+ really should not be used to evaluate prospects, what stats should be considered?
Keith Law: The problem with wRC+ is it rewards production in terms of present value, which is not quite what we want from prospects – we are considering future value, more than present. The first time I had a reader try to use a minor leaguer’s wRC+ to argue with me was for Chase Vallot, who posted a 138 wRC+ in just over a year in high-A … but with a 36% strikeout rate. I had seen Vallot a ton for Wilmington and knew he couldn’t hit decent pitching – but he beat up on bad pitching, of which there is enough in A-ball for a player to fatten up his stat line.

Jason: Jake Noll has had a fantastic Spring (.341/.426/.585) for the Nats. What are your views of him as a prospect?
Keith Law: Exactly what they were a month ago – not a prospect.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: On your point about Trump and Warren, Trump is going to attack and belittle any candidate on the other side. He has literally jumped the shark and is a super-loose cannon. Whoever opposes him has to tactically use that to their advantage– bait him on occasion to show he’s off his rocker and then also show you can be compassionate, the adult in the room, and know your stuff (which he doesn’t.)
Keith Law: I agree, but I’m not sure every Dem candidate would know to do that, or be able to pull it off.

Kevin : Is it wrong for employers to have facial hair rules (like the Yankees)?
Keith Law: IMO, yes.

Austin: In a previous chat, you were skeptical of Garrett Hampson’s ability to hit in the majors because of his lack of power. Has anything you’ve seen in the Spring changed that at all?
Keith Law: No, because … wait for it … spring training stats are useless.

Jonathan: Mike Shawaryn a back of the rotation guy?
Keith Law: I think more likely a reliever but he has succeeded as a starter, with starter-level skills, so far.

Austin: Any thoughts on McMahon in Colorado?
Keith Law: I still like him but for whatever reason they don’t seem to want to commit to play him?

JP: ___% chance of a work stoppage after 2020
Keith Law: 31%.
Keith Law: I just made that number up but it’s not zero and it’s below 50%.

Austin: Any favorite among Woodruff, Burnes and Peralta?
Keith Law: Well one was in my breakouts column…

Kevin : In favor of shortening the season?
Keith Law: Strongly oppose.

Rick Sanchez : Lunatic goes on murderous rampage. Leadership bans assault rifles. Wait- we can do that??!
Keith Law: Amazing what can happen in a liberal democracy that isn’t overrun by corporate and PAC money.

scott: Do you think the NCAA will ever increase the number of baseball scholarships> and if so do you think we will see more of the top high school players choose college rather than the minors? Would that be good for baseball in general?
Keith Law: I’ve suggested this before, but MLB should fund more D1 scholarships, and in exchange demand better access for scouts at workouts, BP, and to players for predraft info gathering (interviews, psych tests, etc.), as well as mandatory pitch limits.

You Work is Appreciated: Just noticed recently no mention of Hjelle in your write up of SF system, though you had wrote about him predraft in decently positive terms. Just wanted to see if anything in particular kept him off your list for the giants.
Keith Law: He’s there. I just checked again after a brief moment of panic.

Dane: How do people who know/respect your insights enough that they follow you and/or come to your chats continue to ask you about how your opinion of a particular player has changed based on spring training stats? You give the same answer to that question EVERY SINGLE TIME you choose to answer it. Every single time.
Keith Law: Every year, too. It’s wishful thinking, really. I understand wanting your favorite team’s player to be better, but a couple of extra hard-hit balls in March don’t tell us anything.

CD: I know he is extremely young, but is Franco in the same class as a prospect as Acuna was?
Keith Law: Yes.

The Fonz: Has a player, manager, or GM ever admitted to you that he follows your chats?
Keith Law: All the time. Often because they like a joke or catch the song reference in the intro.

Ray: Why is everyone acting like someone getting Trump to act like a jerk will move the needle? He’s always been a jerk and his supporters love it. The only thing that will change 2020 is getting those who didn’t come out at all in 2016 to get out and vote.
Keith Law: Isn’t that a possible motivator, though?
Keith Law: I’d add to that getting people who voted third party in 2016 to vote blue. Every person who voted for Jill Crank’n Stein should be deeply ashamed.

JT: If I’m vaccinated and my children are vaccinated, are we safe from the spread of these diseases regardless of the essential oil crowd, or should I be more worried?
Keith Law: You should still be worried because the immune system, while a marvel of evolution, is still imperfect, and that you can still catch a vaccine preventable disease even if you’ve been vaccinated. Your odds of fighting it off are much, much higher, of course, but they are not zero, so pushing herd immunity – stopping the disease from spreading because enough people in a community have been vaccinated – is still extremely important.

Kevin : Is it a weird feeling being recognized in public?
Keith Law: It is, but readers who’ve recognized me have always been so nice that I have come to enjoy it. It’s also infrequent – it’s not like I’ve got people lined up outside this Cartel Coffee shop to take my picture or something. I’ve been recognized in some fun places, like in line at Disneyworld (twice!), by my server in a restaurant, by the manager in a different restaurant, on a rental car shuttle, etc.

Michael Conforto: Have you watched The Inventor? It must be my bubble but this story managed to fly right past me all these years.
Keith Law: Not yet, on my to watch list. I’m overwhelmed again – my daughter wants me to watch Doctor Who and I’ve watched all of one episode of the reboot (Christopher Ecceleston’s debut), plus a friend more or less ordered me to watch Catastrophe, and I want to watch The Inventor and another film on HBO this month, La Familia.

Brett: Will you get any reports on Southern Miss, any chance wallner will sneak into the teens?
Keith Law: Of the first round? I haven’t heard anything like that.

Hinkie: I know you liked Brandon McIlwaine as a HS player. Any chance he can get back to a top prospect now that he’s playing regularly at Cal. Is he a day two pick this June?
Keith Law: I’d buy day two. He’s hit OK so far but I don’t think cal has faced much good pitching.

Danny: Does it matter if you vote Jill Stein or third party in a safely blue state (NY or CA)?
Keith Law: She’s a raging anti-science crank. Anti-vax, anti-GMO, anti-glyphosate, etc. Hard no.

Tom C: It’s interesting remembering the various opinions that the Angels should trade Trout to build up the farm system, only now they have Trout forever and a budding farm system. Hooray for everything.
Keith Law: Yes, but they don’t have much pitching imminent. They will have to solve that problem next.

Brian: Ugh Corey Knebel heading to an elbow specialist with the Brewers very concerned. Do you think how the Brewers used their bullpen last year will have negative ramifications for this year? Jeffress is on the IL as well.
Keith Law: I’m not sure we know how to prevent relievers from getting hurt.

Kevin : Would you do away with the electoral college?
Keith Law: Of course.

Michael : What do you think of the Brewers adding all three of their young pitchers to the rotation? Good move, highly volatile?
Keith Law: I’m here for it. Teams can be a bit too risk-averse with prospects/rookies yet the Brewers have gone hard the other way, and I think it’s great.

Drew: I’m finally watching Brooklyn 99 and it is incredibly funny. Has Michael Schur become the GOAT in television productoin? his run of 4 shows is unbeatable IMO.
Keith Law: If only he understood the glory of hot fruit, he’d be the GOAT. Instead he’s just rich and irrelevant.
Keith Law: OK, I’ve got to get a few little things done before heading out to games this afternoon, so I’ll wrap this up here. Thank you all, as always, for reading and for all of your questions. I should be on schedule for a Thursday chat next week, after I’m home from AZ. Enjoy this last weekend of meaningless baseball!

Keith Law: Cause only when I try am I happier to see. Klawchat.

Tyler Y.: All SSS caveats apply, but the A’s have already gotten one uncharacteristically good turn out of a mediocre (at best) rotation. After last years chicken salad out of chicken sh#$ performance, is there something Oakland is doing to coax a better performance out of the Brett Anderson’s and Aaron Brooks’ of the world than anyone could possibly expect? Or is this all just defense and ballpark (in which case, maybe they are smart to invest less in SP).
Keith Law: No, I think it’s ballpark, defense, and good luck. Their ERA through that one turn is far better than their peripherals might imply.

Jay: I suppose I understand why some people are upset at the upcoming 3 batter minimum rule, but, count me amongst the fans of the rule. Commercial breaks in the middle of an inning are the worst. And, even really bad RPs with terrible splits have a 35% chance of a 1-2-3 inning
Keith Law: I thought a 2 batter minimum would do it. I agree that mid-inning breaks are the worst actual pace-of-play problem (as opposed to overall game length, which I think is what many people mean when tey say “pace of play”).

CH: Do you think Keuchel and Kimbrel end up sitting out this year? Seems more likely by the day.
Keith Law: No, and I don’t think it’s becoming any more likely, either.

Boilermaker: Keith, thanks for the chats. If mlb goes to robot umps for balls and strikes, what does that do to the value of catchers who are good pitch framers? Assuming it nullifies that value, do you think teams are considering that when they negotiate catcher contracts now?
Keith Law: It will nullify that value – as it should – but I don’t think teams are thinking that far in advance.

Jay: My memory is not what it was, but I remember Hunter Greene being a top SS prospect at the time of the draft. Is pitching that scarce when it’s more beneficial to accept near certain injury and a lost year of development than it is to develop a prospect as a position player that can be in the MLB quicker and more than likely have a longer career?
Keith Law: No, he was a great defender at short with some power but a below-average hit tool. He was and still is a much better prospect on the mound.

Greg: If you ran the Red Sox what kind offer would you make to Mookie?
Keith Law: I’d start at Trout and expect him to want far more. He’s worth it, but then again, I think Trout’s deal undervalued him a little bit too.

Jerry: Could the flurry of extensions and the adding of Tatis, Jr, Jimenez, etc to opening day rosters be a bargaining move by the owners to try and fend off a work stoppage?
Keith Law: I do not believe so. I don’t see how that would work anyway, since there are, what, a minimum of 750 MLBPA members?
Keith Law: (I’m blanking on whether all 40-man players are in the union or if they need a day of service.)

Marshall MN: Hi Keith, my mom was recently diagnosed with an incurable terminal illness (I am not fishing for sympathy), and it is insane how quickly the naturopath quacks come out of the woodwork to offer remedies to solve this. It is always done with “best intentions” of course, but it is getting very hard to keep my temper in check with these fools.
Keith Law: I’m very sorry to hear that news, Marshall, but please, lose your temper on those quacks. Naturopathy is woo. It’s just bullshit to separate desperate or gullible people from their money.

Jerry: Has your opinion on Kyle Tucker changed any? I believe the underlying numbers that show he was unlucky in his brief time in the majors in 2019. At the same time I’ve read that some in the organization are souring on his long term outlook. I feel like it would be a panic move and big mistake to move him.
Keith Law: My opinion hasn’t changed, but if they trade him for someone who helps them right now, I wouldn’t necessarily call it a mistake. It all depends on the return – maybe two years of a good major league starter now would justify trading six years of Tucker.

Darren: Hi Keith, so Eric Lauer was the opening day starter for the Padres, which was unexpected. Good young pitcher, but what do you see as his upside?
Keith Law: Fourth starter. Maybe a little below-average over the course of his career. But a starter.

Jerry: What’s your impression of Laureano? Was he projected to be this good? Could the Astros have gotten more for him?
Keith Law: Ramon? 2 WAR player last year. That’s probably about right. I said good things about him after his AFL in 2016, but didn’t put him on my top 100. The Astros’ mistake was altering his swing, which led to the bad 2017 and loss of his value.

John: Thoughts/reactions to the news that Hunter Greene is getting Tommy John surgery?
Keith Law: Disappointed, but hardly surprised – of the three major prospects I can think of who had similar elbow issues last year, two have had TJ (him and Dunning), and Sixto is heading to extended rather than to double-A. I don’t think this is a huge hit for Greene other than pushing his timetable back a year. The funny (peculiar) part is that, as so often happens with guys right before TJ, he apparently looked fantastic in Arizona. Puk had that last year too and then blew out.

Jerry: Nick Tanielu. Possible MLB contributor or just Spring Training noise?
Keith Law: I don’t even look at spring training stats so I don’t know what the noise would be. I don’t think he’s even a bench bat.

Steve: Twitter sometimes recommends tweets liked by who I follow, and frequently recommends tweets that you like. I know “liking” a tweet does not necessarily mean endorsement, but have noticed you like several pro-abortion tweets of late, and was curious how you use science to inform your stance on that issue. Can a mother abort her fetus at 4 weeks, 8 weeks, or 32 weeks? Where do you draw the line (if anywhere)?
Keith Law: I’m not “pro-abortion.” I am pro-choice, and I oppose any intrusion of religion into our secular government. As for your second question, you didn’t give me enough information to answer. If that fetus at 32 weeks is nonviable or going to die shortly after birth, shouldn’t that be a decision between the pregnant woman and her doctor, with no input from you or me?

Scott: Red Sox fan from Delaware…..heading to Frawley Stadium this weekend to see Salem…anyone on their roster that would be of interest?
Keith Law: You can cross-check the Salem roster against my Red Sox prospect ranking: https://klaw.me/2GtRDcK

Evan: True / False: Michael Conforto will end the year as the most valuable player on the Mets? Pitchers included.
Keith Law: I’ll go with true. Always been a huge fan of his bat.

J.P.: Thoughts on the Acuna extension?
Keith Law: Feels like a bad deal for him. I understand any player that age taking the security of the deal, but even considering his lack of leverage in 2019-20, if he becomes the player we all expect him to become, this will be a huge windfall for Liberty Media.

Kyle: KeBryan Hayes is on a June call-up path or does he need a full season remaining in the minors?
Keith Law: June sounds good to me. Don’t think he needs a full season or close to it.

Tadd: If Andujar does need the season-ending shoulder surgery, is there somebody on your Yankees radar who would be an obvious replacement?
Keith Law: Internally? I don’t think so. I guess Estrada could slide over there but he’s not what they would want.

Juwan: If Robles develops 25 hr a year power, is he a superstar?
Keith Law: Yes but nobody I spoke to about him this winter thought he’d end up with that kind of power.

Deke: How hard is it for you to overcome initial evaluations on a player that don’t pan out? I was right with you on Hosmer as a prospect, and to this day I find myself willing it to still happen, but you’ve pretty clearly turned on that.
Keith Law: There’s no ‘right’ time to change an evaluation, but I do think we have to start rethinking probabilities of projections even into a player’s first season in the majors … that 40% chance of a player becoming a star might only be 20-25% a year later. And then…

Marc: Lucas Giolito had some success with a shortened arm motion in his first start. Can these type of adjustments work long term? Any injury concerns?
Keith Law: …you get Giolito working with a shorter but clean arm stroke that had him locating his fastball to the corners along with what might be the best changeup I’ve seen him throw. Prospects are still humans; they don’t develop on our schedule.

W&M: Be glad you didn’t go to college at William and Mary. Terrible record on mental health and punishing students who open up about mental health and anxiety issues. If I could do it over, I never would have gone.
Keith Law: Is that true? Any public record on this? They’re a state school, which makes this even more disappointing.

grant : Do you have any opinion on what education a college kid should get if their trying to go into baseball? Trying to decide if i should study something like stats or computer science
Keith Law: That combination sounds like a perfect one to me.

Kevin W: Has ESPN ever asked you to tone down your twitter feed (and I’m so glad you don’t)?
Keith Law: Sort of. I won’t.

Mac: Is Nick Lodolo going to pitch himself into the top 10 picks?
Keith Law: Possible but I would not take him there.

Patrick: How about my team’s start? Look like division winners! Absolutely I can project their finish from this excellent first half-week!
But seriously Keith, as April snows hit today, I ask–how much can/do you take weather into account when checking out collegiate players? Do you consciously avoid cold-weather scouting trips?
Keith Law: I do – I’d rather see a pitcher on a day with at least moderate weather. I did see Logan Gilbert last spring on a 42 degree day in Newark, which got me a fair look at him but was miserable for everyone involved, myself included.

Dr. Bob: If a team was bad at something last year and they still are through 5 games can any conclusions be drawn or are we still just in SSS-verse?
Keith Law: If the personnel hasn’t changed, then you can carry forward the conclusion you drew from last year.

Dalton: Time worry about the Braves youth on the mound?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd.

Luke: Does Pete Alonso’s start mean anything to you or too much of a SSS to mean anything?
Keith Law: It’s April 2nd. Sam-ple size doo doo do do do do…

Nelson: Ive been trying to read Booker and Pulitzer winning fiction, but I find most are just not very fun reads. Its like Oscars for best picture, maybe great works of fiction, but not the most fan friendly. Any recent winners that your recommend in a page-turner type of way?
Keith Law: All the Light We Cannot See, The Sense of an Ending, The Underground Railroad, Lincoln in the Bardo, The Sellout, The Orphan Master’s Son.

Dr. Bob: The transactions made by Toronto the past couple of weeks raises the question: What is Toronto’s plan?
Keith Law: I’m not quite sure, to be honest.

Nick: I know its super super super early and I think he only has 1 walk, but it looks like Amed Rosario’s is really starting to turn a corner from a plate discipline perspective. In his game winning hit yesterday, he laid off 2 nasty breaking balls before ripping a 2-0 fast ball for a hit. No doubt last year he would have swung at least one of those sliders. If Amed reaches his potential and learns to get on base more, he adds some seriously needed athleticism to that roster and can make the Mets have a pretty darn scary lineup.
Keith Law: Although I generally agree with you, he needs to try to elevate the ball more – when I saw him in March, he was still coming down at the ball at the point of contact enough that I think he’s going to hit too many groundballs.

Jeff: How do you normally finish off a sous vide bath? Smoking hot grill? Sear on cast iron?
Keith Law: Cast iron/carbon steel.

Michael Conforto: I haven’t seen much downside for Mayor Pete. I don’t even love his “religious left” platform, but the justification is thoughtful and admirable. What have you seen?
Keith Law: I’d agree. I admit that I find his overall intelligence extremely appealing, and might be overreacting to the lack of intelligence of the current occupant. I would like to see Elizabeth Warren getting at least the same kind of adulation for her own, similar practice of putting policy proposals first.

Danny: You see the Mets Columbia roster? Szapucki, Woods-Richardson, Mauricio, Newton, Vientos!! (side note: what are they going to do playing-time wise? Newton get OF reps?)
Keith Law: I would guess Newton slides to 2b. Mauricio needs to play most of the time at SS. Continued positive reports on him from minor league ST.

Sarah: If Vlad Guerrero Jr is up in two weeks does he hit 30 HR? 300 BA?
Keith Law: I’d guess 20-25 HR, .300ish AVG, OBP in the mid-.300s.

Carl: Re: your linked-to deadspin piece on ballparks pricing out fans. Do you think this is detrimental to the long-term health of the sport, even if they are maximizing profits now?
Keith Law: I do. You can absolutely alienate too much of your fan base like that, and if those people stop watching or buying merch or paying for MLB.tv, the sport is in trouble.

Amy: Is anyone left to be a FA this fall? These extensions are fascinating, and probably too comforting for the owners. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I don’t think any extension so far has looked like a bad one for the owners. Some have looked fair, others too team-friendly.

Sage: Trying to teach myself guitar. Struggling with chord change speed. Any recs?
Keith Law: Repetitions, and make sure you’re using the optimal fingering to make those changes. Most chords can be played in 3+ ways, so you can set up the next chord change with how you finger the current one.

Patrick: Oh, sure, just as I’m about to ask a music question, I see you dropped March’s new playlist. See you later, going down that rabbit hole…
Do you ever catch live shows? Anxiety not make it comfortable? Or prefer time w/ the family and ‘consuming’ music at your own convenience?
Keith Law: Haven’t been to a show in a year-plus for a variety of reasons. Just met someone recently who shares a lot of my tastes in music and we’ve talked about hitting shows together once my draft travel slows down. She insists I’m going to learn to like Josh Ritter, though…

Debo: Thoughts on Joe Biden giving kisses?
Keith Law: I was done with him as a candidate before then. I guess I’m extra done now. And shame on Alyssa Milano for failing to back up Ms. Flores, instead talking about what a nice guy Biden is. Just because a man didn’t harass or assault YOU doesn’t mean he never did it to anyone else.

MikeM: Im hoping Mayor Pete will use this platform to get some visibility and turn it into a senate seat the next time one is up in Indiana. The Senate is really important and Democrats seem to overlook everything but the presidency.
Keith Law: Yes, and yes, although I too find it hard to think about anything but the presidency when the President is lying about everything on Twitter (no, we did not send Puerto Rico $91 billion in hurricane relief, we sent a paltry $1.5 billion, and he once again implied it’s not part of the US, which it is).

Kevin W: I used to believe this country would never elect somebody named Barack Obama (especially so soon after 9/11) so it gives me hope most people can get past a gay man.
Keith Law: Fun intellectual exercise: Would American voters sooner elect a gay white man or any woman? I think the former.

Ben: Good recs re the Man Booker/Pulitzer list, but is Sense of an Ending a page-turner, or just short? It’s so bleak!
Keith Law: His prose is gorgeous. I tore through it. The movie was solid too although it can’t pack the same punch as the revelation at the end of the book.

Jonathan: Anything to David Hess, other than a really good start last night?
Keith Law: No, I think he ends up a long man or 5th/6th starter.

Alan: How is Carter Stewart faring these days? Do you view him as a top-10 pick this year?
Keith Law: I saw him last month and wrote it up here: https://klaw.me/2Hk6dF1
Keith Law: BTW I’ll be at the NHSI tournament this week, along with Kiley from Fangraphs and some of the BA guys. Top prospects there include Riley Greene, CJ Abrams, Rece Hinds, Brennan Malone, Kendall Williams, and Jack Leiter.

MikeM: How worried should the Yankees be about Hicks’ back? Its been 2 weeks since his 2nd cortizone shot and he still hasnt started baseball activities.
Keith Law: I’m worried. And I have long been a huge Hicks fan.

Amy: Does the Andujar injury make the Yankees seriously regret not being in on Manny?
Keith Law: You could never have foreseen this injury, so in some sense it would be wrong to say that’s the reason they should regret not trying harder to sign Machado. The better reason is that Manny was an upgrade over Andujar in the first place, and they chose not to get better when they had the financial wherewithal to do so. The cost of doing nothing at third base just doubled.

Kretin: Do you use any programs such as Rocksmith for practicing guitar? Highly recommend if you haven’t checked it out.
Keith Law: Thank you. I just practice by playing/learning new songs (and then playing snippets on Instagram, thank you all for humoring me).

Jay: Speaking of mlb.tv, can we PLEASE do away with blackouts? I’m annoyed I can’t watch my local team without paying for cable
Keith Law: Shame on MLB if they don’t negotiate an end to blackouts for that product. Just air the games and send some of the payments to the local RSNs.

jimmyb40: Keith, no question here. Just want to say that I appreciate all of your writing, at Paste, ESPN, and here. I don’t interact much on chats, I don’t interact on Twitter, and I’ve never met you at a game, but I still appreciate everything you do. I hope the bad apples aren’t getting to you too much, and there are us quiet types that want to be respectful and move conversations forward.
Keith Law: Thank you. I appreciate the kind words.

Ted: Is it too soon to conclude that Oakland completely blew it by drafting Beck and Murray with top 10 picks in the past 2 drafts?
Keith Law: Too soon on Beck but he looks terrible. Murray, I just don’t know what they knew at the time, but I know our draft experts at ESPN didn’t think Murray was going to be a first rounder, much less a potential #1 overall pick. (me, not a football fan: “Oh, like Dan Wilkinson? Or Ki-Jana Carter?”)

Juwan: For posterity, mark me down as a Nats supporter that doesn’t blame Harper one bit for not accepting the Nationals’ two low ball offers, doesn’t begrudge the man one bit for signing the best contract he was offered irrespective of location and how it would impact his former club, and a guy that won’t boo him even once for anything pertaining to his free agency decision.
Keith Law: I would like to think most Nats fans feel this way, but that we just hear from the most vocal ones.

PD: Has anyone tried to determine the risk premium charge that players pay to get the long term security from an extension? Yes, players want to get paid for what they’re expected to produce but there’s value to the player in knowing you’ll get paid long term versus the uncertainty going year to year.
Keith Law: I haven’t seen any research on this (feel free to send me a link if any of you have seen one, even in an academic paper). I completely agree on your second point. If that’s my kid, I’d say negotiate for every last dollar, but plan to sign.

Wayne: How concerned are you about Soroka’s shoulder? And, do you think we see Ian Anderson this year?
Keith Law: Very concerned about Soroka’s shoulder since it’s his second bout of soreness and I’d raised concerns about his arm swing prior to any injuries. For most teams I’d say no on Anderson, but we saw Wright and Touki and Wilson last year before I expected, so maybe for Atlanta yes.

Dr. Bob: Manny Machado 222/263/222 28 OPS+. See? Guys get comfortable after they sign big contracts. (Or was it, He doesn’t play hard? I forget.)
Keith Law: I will not out the writer, but someone posted a troll tweet after Harper had a bad game in the opener, and how Atlanta got so much more out of Matt Joyce, who signed for nothing. Not only was it unfunny trolling, but it was spiteful towards Harper. The fact that he signed that enormous deal should not color our opinion of his value or production.

Nick: re: Marshall MN’s comment and naturopathy. My mom was diagnosed with cancer over the summer (thankfully she is in remission now) and a few people suggested certain naturopath treatments and I straight up told them it was bullshit and that the only way she’ll get any better is by listening to her doctors. It shut them up, at least around me.
Keith Law: Good for you. Fire all those mountebanks into the sun.

Rob: Any hope for Alford as a regular?
Keith Law: He has the physical tools to be a regular, but neither the performance nor the history of durability to suggest he will become one.

Jason: I’m not looking forward to the Democratic primary at all. I can’t imagine a time in history when uniting behind a strong candidate who can win the election matters more, but yet you can already see through early donation amounts and social media people uniting behind Sanders, Warren, and Mayor Pete. As much as we might like their core policies, they aren’t going to resonate with most of the country. Am I crazy to think that a Biden or Klobuchar, while flawed certainly, is the way to go here?
Keith Law: I know too little about Klobuchar to say, but I am out on Biden – the harassment issues didn’t even come into play, as I don’t think Biden’s policy history is promising, and to be quite honest, I’d like someone who won’t turn 80 during his term, you know?

Craig: Obviously Knebel’s upcoming TJ surgery puts a dent in the Brewers bullpen. Other than Kimbrel (who they are wisely unwilling to overpay for) is there anyone they should be targeting for additional bullpen help?
Keith Law: I think/hope they’ll give Zack Brown relief innings as they did Burnes and Woodruff last year.
Keith Law: Maybe look for their Ryan Pressly, too.
Keith Law: (A guy they think they can tweak to improve, someone we would look at now and say is fine, but not the high-leverage solution you seek.)

JR: Pretty cool that Alonso and Tatis, Jr got their first MLB HRs on the same day. Hope they both have solid seasons and make for an exciting NL ROY race.
Keith Law: I wish Tatis’s had been earlier – actually even Alonso’s was after 10 pm, I think, so I’m guessing a lot of fans didn’t see them. I was out by the time Tatis homered. MLB needs to get those clips out on social early and often to push those kids in front of fans.

Jonathan: How is that not age-ism against Biden? Bernie is nearly the same age no?
Keith Law: When did I ever say I wanted Bernie? Age-related cognitive decline typically begins in a person’s 70s. Being younger than that would be a BFOQ.

Gritty: As a Nat’s fan, I’m going to boo Bryce Harper because he’s a phillie, not because he chased the $$$
Keith Law: Well that’s fair.

Brian: Posed this question to my Dad the other day and he basically laughed in my face – Schoop at $6 million to man 2B until Hiura is ready or Moustakas at $10 million to do the same? I still feel like Schoop is the better choice.
Keith Law: Same. Think you’ll get a lot more on defense.

Jco, San Fran: How long does Farhan need to rebuild the big league club and secondly, the system?
Keith Law: I think this one is a 4-5 year rebuild. System is still very thin above short-season ball.

ck: How do teams find out about DFA or waived players. Is there a group email or website or something? Also, how do you reach a player? Does a team have an index with phone numbers of all players and their agents or what? Thanks for all your content. Sorry if this was a dumb question…
Keith Law: When I was with Toronto we’d get multiple PDFs every day (I think three?) with transactions, including all players on the three types of waivers we had at the time. I imagine it’s a bit more streamlined now?

Rick Sanchez: When does Mize crack the majors? Do you view him as a future ace?
Keith Law: June 2020 and yes.

Matt: With the way the Indians OF situation looks, how soon does Mercado make his debut? Is his defense good enough to handle CF everyday?
Keith Law: Early this year and yes.

Chris: It must be in the West Palm Beach water, but but by pure coincidence (I hadn’t read your restaurant dish post) we tried The Leftovers and had the same exact experience with absolutely no seasoning on the fish. We also tried Captain Charlie’s (we were told that the owner of Leftovers and Food Shack used to be the head cook there) and my daughter had the same problem with her fish (mine was blackened and not noticeable). Seriously, how has this not been addressed before?
Keith Law: A slew of people recommended the Leftovers too, and the quality of the fish and other ingredients wasn’t a problem. But bah god i need some salt!

Alex: If you were a baseball fan growing up, would you say working in the industry deepens your appreciation for the sport, or does the work become too “work-like”? Asking because I am interested in getting a job in baseball, but don’t want to lose my passion for the game in the process
Keith Law: Baseball is work. I love what I do, but I have a hard time going to a game to just watch the game, and can’t get caught up in outcomes any more.

Joe: Is Adley R. major league ready now?
Keith Law: Absolutely not.

Ryan: Can Zimmer be a lock down closer, if the Royals decide to use him that way?
Keith Law: Teams typically expect closer to be able to pitch on back to back days, but I don’t think Zimmer has ever done that.

Jonathan: What was the positive development, that almost made you decide to stop writing? (If you can tell us)
Keith Law: I was saying that I felt much less of the typical desire to write because of some good and bad things that have happened recently. I don’t plan to stop writing entirely – a longtime reader emailed to ask if I was taking a team job and I said no. I don’t think I’ll ever go back at this point.

Ira: I know this seems like an oversimplification but regarding abortion shouldn’t the legality of the practice depend on the viability of the fetus? Isn’t that a fair line to determine a woman’s choice to abort?
Keith Law: Who makes that determination? And fair according to whom? I’d leave it to the woman and her doctor, and would rather see public policy focus on providing food, education, and health care to the many, many children who don’t have enough of those.

Mike: Looks like the Mets are going to staple Dom smith to the bench this year. Any chance he’s a solution for the Red Sox in a year? They don’t have any obvious in house candidates for that job next year, and moving Devers seems like quite a waste.
Keith Law: Interesting thought. Not sure I could see the Red Sox going unproven there, but I like it. I think Smith ends up with a second division team and then breaks out.

Ryan: As of right now would you rather have Mookie or Acuna?
Keith Law: Mookie but they’re both stars.

Joe: No way Pache makes it to the MLB this season right? Even if there were a spot for him I still feel there’s a year or more worth of development to go for him. Maybe he hits so much he proves me wrong, but there are fans acting like he’s taking over for Markakis in a few months
Keith Law: Ideally, no. I think the approach has to improve first, and that may require time and some struggling in AA/AAA. His defense was ready a year ago.

Harrisburg Hal: Do you have a good list of short story writers for someone who has read non-fiction exclusively for 25 years, but willing to dip his toe into fiction?
Keith Law: The best short story writer ever, in my NSHO, is F. Scott Fitzgerald. The rest are vying for second place. I read and enjoyed George Saunders’ Tenth of December. The Collected Stories of John Cheever is long but contains some absolute classics, including “The Swimmer.”

Josh: Any way Dom Smith can play OF as a regular?
Keith Law: No. They’ve tried this.

BD: Crazy for Luis Garcia to start at AA Harrisburg?
Keith Law: Crazy, no, but not ideal.

Ben: After seeing the rosters, which minor league team are you most looking forward to see thus far?
Keith Law: I haven’t seen all the rosters. Are they even all out? It’s not like I’m going to any minor league games until the Dash come here Monday anyway.

Brandon: Since someone mentioned Mercado I am wondering if you have seen Jhon Torres and have any thoughts on his long-term outlook?
Keith Law: I had notes on him in my Cards wrapup but I have not seen him in person.

Newt: Ever see a high-speed career implosion like Denise McAllister’s world-record performance on Saturday night?
Keith Law: I rather enjoyed that, since she’s just another preacher of hate. Of course, Bethany Mandel has tweeted some vile transphobic stuff and still has her gig, so (shrug).

Mike: Do you consider 70 games a small sample size? Because Jeff McNeil won’t stop raking and he’s added some pop this year as well. I think the guy’s for real
Keith Law: Yes, 70 games is a small sample size. I’m glad you think he’s for real.

40-man players: We ARE union members…
Keith Law: Yeah, I thought so, but I was second-guessing myself. So 1200+ members.

Frank: Bummed on Andujar. Likeable, hard working and seemingly bright future. From your experience, how bad is a labrum tear (throwing arm) for a third baseman?
Keith Law: I really can’t say. And I would imagine it depends on how bad the tear is, and thus how significant the surgery is. Plus he loses a year of reps in the field and at bats. But as for the surgery, I just don’t know enough to say.

Chris: My 11-year-old son plays little league, and I’ve been managing his teams for the past 4 seasons. He’s not great. But he’s not terrible. He just loves the game. On the other end of the spectrum, we have 3 players on our team that play for the local travel team. Since 3rd grade, they’ve been “conditioning” beginning in January through August, and work with former minor-league players at developing skill sets. 2 of these players are already at the point where they’re tired and just don’t want to continue. And that’s a shame. I feel like we’re doing kids a disservice by forcing them into this where they want to quit. Where’s the line? [ends Jack Morris rant]
Keith Law: That’s insane. It seems like the parents are just pushing the kids rather than letting the kids decide any of their own fates (like, do they want to play another sport too?)

Steve O: If Andujar does require season ending surgery, does that change his long term outlook? Other than losing a year of development, of course.
Keith Law: Probably not but I might reduce the probability of him becoming an average defender at any point.

Joe: Is there enough subjectivity in judging certain prospect tools to create a difference among scouts? For example, it is possible that a scout could be outstanding at judging a hit tool but not as good as another scout at judging the glove?
Keith Law: This is absolutely possible. The question is whether we could tell this about a given scout in time to make use of this knowledge.

Buck: Not trying to be snarky, honest, but can’t you just use the salt shaker on the table to get your fish flavored right?
Keith Law: No. There’s a big difference between salting food before/during cooking and doing to after. Salt draws moisture to the surface, and then some of that same moisture will be reabsorbed into the meat/fish, taking salt with it. If you salt at the table, you get salt on the surface but that’s it.

Mike: Surprised Jordan Balazovic is opening back in High-A?
Keith Law: He only pitched in low-A last year. High-A is what I expected.

Matt: I cancelled my MLB.tv account. I’m a Yankees fan. I’m supposed to shell out $150 for a “season package” when 1/3 of their games are blacked out? No thanks.
Keith Law: I can’t blame you.

Mayor Pete: Warren will be in her 70’s by the next election. Do you think she should also be disqualified?
Keith Law: Nine years younger than Biden. And I never said “disqualified.” Is this what’s next? Bad enough I get strawman-toting baseball trolls.

Riley: Edwin Diaz or Josh Hader best RP in baseball?
Keith Law: Why are those my only choices? Blake Treinen is offended.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week. I think I’ll be back to Thursday next week, given potential travel & some actual home games here at Frawley Stadium. Thank you all as always for all of your questions and for all of your kind words this week. Hir yw pob ymaros.

My column on the most loaded minor league rosters this spring is up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: Freeze this moment a little bit longer. It’s Klawchat.

addoeh: Yes, it’s April 11, but the Cubs bullpen might just be dumpster_fire.gif
Keith Law: And they really didn’t do enough to address it this winter. I’m not necessarily on the ‘sign Kimbrel’ train – I’ve said before I have concerns that he’s on the downswing after 2018 – but he’d be a big upgrade over literally every reliever they have.

addoeh: How much is Chris Davis’s roster status and playing time an ownership directive, rather than a front office or managerial decision?
Keith Law: I don’t know the answer to that. I would guess his playing time will decline if/when they choose to bring other position players up or grab someone off waivers to whom they want to give a trial.

alex: I know it’s easy to make fun of Chris Davis on twitter– but there have been some articles which discusses that he has become depressed– maybe not in a clinical sense (since there is, as far as I know, he has seen a psychologist for depression)– does that make you reconsider some of the things you have tweeted? As an Os fan, I’d like to see him retire/release/buy out, but I don’t want him to decide to end things the way Mike Flanagan did.
Keith Law: I have tweeted very little about him, so no. I don’t want to appear to be exulting in his struggles. I tweeted once about the time I argued that Jim Bowden was bonkers for suggesting the Orioles should give Davis at least a six-year deal, and made one joke specifically about Davis’ stat line yesterday. Anything more would start to feel like I was attacking the person rather the contract or the production.

Kyle KS: Do you roll the dice with Jose Martinez in RFif your the Cardinals at this point? When does the better defense (although not good defense) of Fowler stop outweighing the fact that he hits with a pool noodle?
Keith Law: I’d like to give Fowler more time; it doesn’t seem like he’s hitting with a pool noodle, as you say, as he has some hard-hit balls already this year.

Swagboy: Does Zach Eflin have any realistic chance at becoming a reliable starter for a Phillies team trying to contend? Would his (realistic) best case scenario be a #4, or could he surpass that? I’d be thrilled if he had 3-3.5 win potential this year.
Keith Law: I think he could be better than a #4, yes.

Bob: You tweeted about Daniel Lynch’s velocity in his most recent start. I saw his first start and it seemed like there was a lot of contact on his secondaries and he would resort to the big fastball to get out of trouble. Do you think he can develop a 2nd (and 3rd!) pitch that can be a swing and miss weapon as he moves up?
Keith Law: That’s not at all what happened in his second start, though. His changeup was above/plus and his slider was sometimes above.

Bob: Hans Crouse is off to a great start. Any idea if there’s been improvement on broadening his repertoire or just blowing hitters away with a limited more reliever-ish arsenal. If the latter, what’s a better approach – forcing him to throw secondary pitchers at that level or pushing him up until better hitters force him to adjust?
Keith Law: I’ve heard it’s more of the same. Not that that’s bad, but I agree eventually he’ll have to adjust.

gavin: are the Padres for real?
Keith Law: They are absolutely a real major league team, which I imagine comes as a surprise to a large portion of MLB’s fan base. They’re also probably good enough to push past .500 this year if they stay healthy.

Josh C: Fangraphs wrote up Astros prospect Abraham Toro as being “divisive” within the industry. What are your thoughts on him? Regular, bench player, not even a guy?
Keith Law: Bench player. I’d have to know what Eric/Kiley meant by divisive to say more, although I trust them if they said that.

Keith: How many PAs typically indicate a stabilized view on K%s and BB%s? Any indication that Moncada has changed his approach in a meaningful way to reduce his K% and increase contact?
Keith Law: There isn’t a clear number for that. I know everyone wants a fixed answer, but that’s not how any statistical distribution works – your confidence that the number is ‘real’ will increase with sample size. I’d be surprised if this Moncada start was sustainable.

Mac: If Rutschman and Vaughn go 1-1 and 1-2 have any college hitters moved into the 1-3 discussion or would the White Sox be choosing between Witt Jr. and Abrams?
Keith Law: Witt Jr, Abrams, Greene, and possibly Bleday (there’s your college hitter) would be the top 6. Lodolo is the only pitcher I can think of who might go top ten, although that’s a reach for me.

Matt: Is this the Maikel Franco we’ve been waiting for?!
Keith Law: No, more a function of hitting 8th.

Rangers: What do you think of our new HR celebration? Inappropriate, wtf, or don’t care?
Keith Law: Don’t care. Celebrate all you want. Have fun.

KillMonger: Fried & Swanson — too early to predict whether either can sustain their success this year?
Keith Law: Too early, yes, but optimistic on both.

Santos: If Kuechel’s demands have actually come down, should the Phillies be seriously considering him? Rotation looks thin and/or volatile.
Keith Law: If I were a GM looking for pitching – Klentak qualifies – I’d be more comfortable “overpaying” for short-term production from Keuchel than Kimbrel. One, I think Keuchel is just better period. Two, I feel better about paying a starter than a reliever.

Tony Stromboli: Logan Gilbert is maintaining the velocity he showed end of last year that raised some eyebrows — at least, through 2 starts. Do you have any general thoughts about him you’d like to share?
Keith Law: I heard 93-95 from a scout who just saw him. He pitched through some minor injuries last spring that probably explained the drop from 92-95 on the Cape in 2017 to 88-92 last summer. I still ranked him as a mid-first rounder even with that velocity because I thought the command and breaking ball made him a potential league-average starter anyway.

Hank: During the off-season you praised the Jays for their hire if Charlie Montoyo. How do you feel about the hiring now that he’s come out saying he likes bunting?
Keith Law: I can still like a manager overall even if he is really stupid about one thing (and, come on, Chuck, stop fucking bunting so much).

Salzer: Do you continue to try Alex Reyes as a starter? He just seems too good to put in the bullpen.
Keith Law: Zero track record staying healthy as a starter. Not saying you don’t try it, but at some point the body is telling you something.

Aaron (Houston): KLAW, thanks for the chat. I have several relatives (parents and kids) who swear their kid (or themselves) can make it to the next level in baseball. With the chances being so small (to make it to the next level), is it not better to skip out on that dream, than try, only to fail, and possibly have no back up plan?
Keith Law: Why not make a backup plan? Not much of a life if you never try anything for fear of failure.

Grover: In the position the Giants are in should they consider trading Buster Posey?
Keith Law: Yes, but I doubt they do, given his status with the franchise.

Tom: Trent thorton – whats his ceiling?
Keith Law: It’s top-of-the-line stuff with below-average command, and I’m not sure he can ever have the command to get to starter quality.

Juwan: SSS of course, but the ball seems to be jumping off of Robles’ bat this season. He attributes the low exit velo to the elbow injury he had at the beginning of last year, it the extra base hit power is real and continues going forward, is he a future perennial all star at center, and does that make him one of the best players in baseball in a few seasons?
Keith Law: Yes to your first question and I’m not so sure about the second. I’d define “one of the best players in baseball” as, say, top 5-10 overall. I’d feel better about saying he’ll be a top 20 player in baseball. Not playing semantics games here, just trying to be clear.

James: SSS but are we sleeping on Franmil Reyes? Only hitting .143/.235/.286 but taking the batted ball data in account his expected BA is .324, expected SLG is .703, and expected WOBA is .440, all while posting great BB% & K% with a high average exit velocity.
Keith Law: Breakout candidate for me this year. Haven’t changed my view.

Jerry: I don’t know enough about it to have an informed opinion so here goes. Is there a legitimate reason to terminate the agreement between MLB and the Cuban Baseball Federation?
Keith Law: In my opinion, no. This reeks of 1) let’s undo the thing Obama did and 2) let’s pander to Cuban-American voters in Florida. The agreement solved a serious problem, and was between a private enterprise and a federation run by the Cuban government. The idea that allowing MLB to give money to an undemocratic regime is untenable while our government hands billions in foreign aid to undemocratic regimes that commit far more serious human rights violations is, to be kind, a bit inconsistent. Why does Cuba get special attention here? See 1 and 2.

Carter: Budget not an issue, where is the best place to sit for an MLB game? Right behind home plate?
Keith Law: Just get behind the net.

Samuel: We’re a little past the discussion at this point, but please tell me I’m not crazy. What Tom Izzo did during the NCAA Tournament wasn’t coaching, right? It wasn’t instructive, helpful, and encouraging. It was a person who was belittling, devaluing, and embarrassing someone he’s in charge of guiding, correct? I feel so discouraged that it seems I’m in the minority here, that we not only accept this behavior, but celebrate it.
Keith Law: I was this many days old when I learned that Tom Izzo is a college basketball coach. I think I only know who won on Monday because I follow Sean Doolittle on Twitter (which everyone should).

Brendan: What happens first? Chris Davis hit or Yu Darvish quality start?
Keith Law: I thought Darvish looked OK last night.

Mark: How long before Ryan Weathers is in Lake Elsinore? Is there anything he can realistically do to become a #1 or #2 starter type?
Keith Law: I’d bet on him spending most/all of the year in low-A and I don’t see a #2 in there unless he has a totally unexpected jump in velocity.

Kris: You pumped for GOT to return?
Keith Law: I have never watched a minute of that show. Rape and violence do not entertain me.

John Smoltz: What are your thoughts on Jesse Biddle? Do you think he can be converted into a starter?
Keith Law: I’d leave him right where he is.

Ben: Any new takeaways on M.J. Melendez or Seuly Matias from your recent look at Wilmington?
Keith Law: Blog post coming tomorrow or tonight. Started it right before this chat. I’ll cover Robert, Lynch, those guys. No Madrigal because he missed the two games I saw, supposedly with a cold.

Kretin: How is it in this day and age that people believe any of this anti-vax nonsense?
Keith Law: Dunning-Kruger syndrome.

Mark: Is Nick Margevicious a legit MLB starter going forward or is he just getting by on smoke and mirrors?
Keith Law: Back end starter. Also, I need someone with art or Photoshop skills to make a gif of Marge Simpson sneering like Sid Vicious with that punk hairdo.

John: Is Dylan Carlson a bench guy regular?
Keith Law: More.

Todd: Rep Tom Massie is confusing. He drives an electric Tesla, has solar powered house, talks all the time about conservation & sustainability. He does more to combat climate change on an individual level than most people…..yet denies climate change.
Keith Law: And he went to MIT. He can’t be as dumb as he sounded yesterday, can he? Is he just pandering to his constituents in rural Kentucky?

Justi: What does Nolan Gorman need to do to get into your top 100 at midseason? Is the lack of inclusion on your list due to swing and miss issues?
Keith Law: I had him in my top 50.
Keith Law: I mean, maybe just check my rankings before posting? It’ll make this a better experience for everyone.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Does a smaller sample size for someone like Julio Rodriguez, someone who the organization thought was advanced enough to tackle full season ball at 18, matter ever so slightly more? (enough to get excited, anyway)
Keith Law: No. Sample size doo doo do do do do, sample size doo doo do do do do…

Nick Grit: I’ve seen some pretty differing opinions on Casey Mize, with some referencing a ‘violent’ delivery and/or athleticism concerns. He has always struck me as a pretty complete pitcher coming out of college and pretty safe. It doesn’t seem like you are as worried as others about his health, is that accurate?
Keith Law: Yeah, those opinions to which you refer – and I honestly have never seen that anywhere – are wrong.

Bob: Better longterm outlook: Xavier Edwards, Tirso Ornelas, Josh Naylor.
Keith Law: Ornelas. All big leaguers though.

Blaine: Thanks for your review of the strategy game Wingspan. It’s beautifully made and a joy to play.
Keith Law: So good. I can’t wait till the next print run hits so I can tell you all to buy it.

Robert: Zack Brown has flown through the brewers system much like Corbin Burnes. What’s your report on him?
Keith Law: Also on my top 100.

Justin: Bryan Reynolds’ (obviously SSS, high babip, etc) hot start has me wondering. In general, how much can hamate surgery temporarily sap someone’s power? Would we be talking a full scouting grade?
Keith Law: I have heard estimates of up to 18 months – I remember an NHL player, Jason Allison (?), saying it took him that long to regain full strength after a broken wrist. I don’t think there’s a hard and fast rule, but I like to try to give guys a calendar year to get it back.

Ben: Any potential GUYS at LSU this year?
Keith Law: No.

Bobby Bradley’s 40-time: Do you have any concerns about Vaughn, being a R/R 1B and all, going #2? Or is the bat that freaking good?
Keith Law: The bat is that fucking good, man.

Michael: Hi Keith- Thanks for the chat! I know you have said that baseball content outside of work feels like… well…work. But wondering if you have ever read the classic “Glory Of their Times” by Lawrence Ritter about the old days of baseball and what you thought of it.
Keith Law: I don’t think I ever read that one, although I read some books in that genre maybe 15-20 years ago. The whitewashing of the sordid parts of the game’s history grate on me.

ck: Keith, you had an exchange on Twitter last week about John Anderson of Minnesota allowing a pitch count to get dangerously high. Does he have a history of pitcher abuse? My sense is that in general he is very well regarded, and I had a personal experience with him (albeit over 30 years ago) that gave me a very favorable impression of him.
Keith Law: First time his name had come up in that context with me, but his inaction in that game was a major blunder.

Nelson: Do you think Acuna, Pache, and Waters will be the Braves’ 2021 Outfield?
Keith Law: I’ll buy that. And I’ll watch the hell out of it.

Grover: Why does the hypocrisy go over the heads of guys like Archer who beat their chest and flex after a strike out but take offense to a guy admiring the donger he just hit?
Keith Law: I understand your point, but as I said on Twitter about this, hypocrisy is beside the point. Throwing at a hitter is wrong, no matter who you are, and MLB should drop the hammer on those guys. It should go in the next CBA – you throw at a hitter, you get a mandatory suspension of, say, ten games. Enough to hurt the team, not just your paycheck, so your bosses and teammates might say, hey, cut that shit out, we need you to pitch.

Nils: You mentioned Mason Thompson in your ESPN article earlier this week. Is he long for the rotation or do you see him becoming a RP long term?
Keith Law: Starter.

Justi: Do the Reds bring up Senzel as soon as he’s healthy or are they gonna continue to be cute with him? He’s 23, what’s the holdup?
Keith Law: He’s hurt.

Ira: Do you have concerns about Chris Sale’s decreased average velocity on FB and general lack of usual dominance going back to middle of last season, especially given the extension he just received?
Keith Law: I’m concerned about the combination of reduced velocity and shoulder trouble from last year.

Ben: Any early rumblings at what the Tigers would do at 5? Do you think they would go for Witt if he falls or stick to college bats?
Keith Law: The list of six position players I mentioned above would apply to them too. Greene or Abrams, likely. Feel like they wouldn’t take Vaughn if he’s there.

Nick: Are you planning on seeing the West Virginia Power with Gilbert, Kelenic and Rodriguez?
Keith Law: If they come closer to me, and I’m free to go, sure. I don’t plan that far out.

TP: Can Freddy Peralta succeed as starter without better secondary pitches? Against the Reds last week, he threw 84 fastballs out of 100 pitches, but struck out 11 and gave up 2 hits over 8 IP. His other starts…not so great…
Keith Law: It’s all deception – his fastball isn’t very fast, but hitters don’t see it if he throws it up in the zone. I think he can start but have a lot of disaster starts along the way, to the point where he’s still valuable enough to start but that people in/out of the org wonder if he should be in a different role.

Josh: Was surprised not to see Dodgers’ Tulsa team on your loaded MiLB list. Not enough depth of talent there?
Keith Law: Right.

Michael: Any chance you saw that Gabe Kapler said that the Phillies can’t baby Roman Quinn? After all, Kapler said, he’s “not made of glass”. Wondering if you know if they actually had this confirmed by a medical doctor, as I have my doubts.
Keith Law: I actually thought he was made of glass, so this is big, if true.

Aaron G: Do the Yankees have the depth to lose Severino and not have to pick up Keuchel (and lose the draft pick)?
Keith Law: I don’t think so. At this point how much production would you project to get from Severino, with rotator cuff inflammation and now a lat injury that will probably keep him from pitching in the majors until at least June 1st?

Hoz: Hello Keith! Do you think Domingo German can stick and develop further into a 2 or 3 sp? Much thanks
Keith Law: No, I think he’s a reliever.

Jim: Is Josh Naylor’s bat good enough to supplant Franmil / Renfroe in SD as soon as opening day next season?
Keith Law: Reyes and Renfroe are outfielders, so no.

Everyone: ESPN’s updates on the website are whack. No pitching starts pace indicator and the FantasyCast is garbage compared to years past. So I guess my question is, what the hell?
Keith Law: Well, if I had anything to do with that, that would be useful, but this isn’t even an ESPN chat.

Mark: Do you post Klawchat schedules anywhere?I get the newsletter, is there somewhere else I need to look ? Thanks
Keith Law: I shoot for Thursdays at 1 pm when I’m not traveling. I can tell you now next week I’ll be on the road.

Bloop: So. How’d the mythical Robert look?
Keith Law: He went 0 for 5 with two punches. The universe is mocking me.

Jo-Nathan: How high would Jasson Dominguez go in the draft this year if eligible?
Keith Law: Not that high. The two pools aren’t very comparable to begin with, given the players’ ages, but what I’ve heard on Dominguez doesn’t make him a top ten talent or anything.

Adam Trask: FYI, Cuban Baseball Federation is not run by the Cuban government. It is run by the Cuban Olympic Committee, which answers to the International Olympic Committee.
Keith Law: “Answers to” is not the same thing. Who funds the Federation? Not the IOC, right?

Anya: Michigan State basketball rape story in the NY Times today. OMFG, what is wrong with colleges when it comes to sports…
Keith Law: College sport fandom is like a cult. Last June, Oregon State abused one of its pitchers, Kevin Abel, to win the CWS, throwing him 129 pitches the day after he’d thrown a 23-pitch relief outing. He was 19, so even the 129 was over the PitchSmart limit for his age, and that limit assumes regular rest before the start. I called them out at the time, and Pat Casey, the OSU coach, said people criticizing him were just haters (that we “didn’t want them to win,” I believe, as if I give two shits who wins the CWS). Abel has been hurt much of the spring and now has to have Tommy John surgery. I pointed this out yesterday … and was immediately set upon by OSU fans who are suddenly experts in pitching injuries in mechanics. They believe exactly what they want, and only what they want, rather than consider that the team or its players or its coaches might be less than perfect.
Keith Law: Also, Casey did the same to Drew Rasmussen, running him out for full outings just a year off TJ, enough that Rasmussen flunked his physical with the Rays and required a second TJ less than two years after his first one.

Chuck: Cedric Mullins a AAA guy, AAAA guy or MLB guy?
Keith Law: Bench/up-and-down guy.

Ben: When does Milb present to us a remotely friendly site and app? This is ridiculous!
Keith Law: MILB turning its app from a useful one to a completely useless one is the most bizarre thing I’ve ever seen on that platform. Apps are supposed to improve, and add features, right?

E: You have mentioned a weaker draft class numerous times this year. Is there a chance no draftees crack the top 20 prospects next year?
Keith Law: Rutschman maybe, otherwise no.

Jake L.: Are you a believer in the Forbes Team values? The Rays, to no surprise, scoff that the team is now worth 1.01 Billion dollars
Keith Law: They’re educated estimates, but hardly precise. It’s very difficult to properly value an asset that not only isn’t publicly traded but the sale of which is effectively regulated by a third party.

Brian Godish: Once the season starts, how do you divide up your time between MLB, the minors, and draft prep? I picture your office with 6 screens this time of year.
Keith Law: Watching draft guys on TV is mostly useless to me. The angles are all wrong.

Guest: Can you confirm Luis Robert is real now?
Keith Law: I can confirm this.

scott: Jake Mangum looks like he will finish as the all time hits leader in the SEC. Does he have any professional future?
Keith Law: Professional yes, major-league no.

Jeff: It seems Oregon State lies about the nature of Abel’s injury. Shouldn’t there be some repercussions from the NCAA?
Keith Law: Ahahahahahahahahah oh my god that’s hilarious. No, they’ll probably suspend a different player for accepting a free sip of water.

Jerry: Last night’s performance out of the bullpen for James notwithstanding, if the back end of the Astros rotation isn’t doing the job by summer would James and/or Whitley bring enough to the table to keep the good times rolling or would it be time to start shopping Tucker and others for a big time SP?
Keith Law: Why not both? Try Whitley and James while exploring the market for Tucker.

Big Fan: Is ‘Insert Player’ from ‘Insert Favorite Team’ going to be awesome this year based on ‘Insert Small Sample Stat’?
Keith Law: I’m trying to skip most of those questions this week, but yeah, that’s about the size of it. Nobody knows which great/terrible start is real.

Jeff: Does it make any sense that Abel would feel a twinge in his elbow while rehabbing after being shut down for an alleged bad back?
Keith Law: When I was with the Jays, Jeff Niemann was a potential first-rounder at Rice (heh) and missed some starts his junior year with what was reported as a groin injury. One of my colleagues asked in a group discussion about potential picks if that was the groin that’s attached to the elbow ligament.

Esteban: Have you heard old town road by lil nas x? Thots?
Keith Law: I hate that fucking song already.

Bobby D: It the recent past it seems that you have been reading more. Were/are your motivations tied to your writing or more along the line of personal enjoyment?
Keith Law: I’m still reading at my usual pace. Just started The Inheritance of Loss yesterday.

Eric: Some people on Blue Jays twitter are starting to get excited about Patrick Murphy…justified? Any insights you can share?
Keith Law: It’s two starts.

Brian Godish: Maybe Madrigal played and you just couldn’t see him…
Keith Law: On the contrary, I could look him right in the eyes.

nelson: Talk about the black hole
Keith Law: I’m just trying to figure out how we can fire all the anti-vaxxers right past its event horizon.

Mike: If the over/under was set at “1” on Big League Regulars among McKinney, Jansen, Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez and Drury, would you take the over?
Keith Law: Yes.

Jay: At what point do the draft picks become unattached to free agents? That’s the day I think we see deals for Kimbrel & Keuchel
Keith Law: After the draft.

Guest: Keith, any idea if ESPN+ will get folder into Disney+ whenever it comes out?
Keith Law: I was just discussing this with someone last night – I don’t know, and my gut is that they’ll be separate services, but how great would it be if they were combined or even bundled like Spotify/Hulu? (UPDATE: Disney announced this afternoon that there will indeed be some sort of bundle.)

Chris: Not even looking at the statline, Amed Rosario looks like a different player this year. Turning on balls inside while displaying better patience. Exciting.
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic on that one. Hitting balls harder, not getting them quite enough into the air. At some point after Brooklyn his swing got a little flatter.

Mark: I was watching a show on T.V the other day called ,”The best Thing I ever Ate.” Curious what as to what your answer would be.
Keith Law: A longtime reader & correspondent (who seems to have vanished from the internet completely, so I’m a bit worried about her) asked me that years ago, and my answer was the meatballs with tomato sauce and lardo at Boston’s Coppa. I no longer eat beef, so that dish will have to remain a memory, but I could also offer the duck carnitas at Cosme in NYC, the piedras y oro dessert at Xochi in Houston, the Wiseguy pizza at Phoenix’s Pizzeria Bianco, the grilled carrots with jalapeño chimichurri and apricot puree at Juniper and Ivy … okay, this might get long…

Keith: What insights (if any) did seeing Luis Robert in person give you?
Keith Law: Swing is better than I expected. At bats were not. My goodness he is a large man.

Chris: I got to watch a lot of Kyle Isbel and Nathan Eaton play last year in the Pioneer league and came away really impressed by both. Any thoughts on either of those guys? Any reason for optimism?
Keith Law: First two games with Isbel weren’t promising. I’ll see him a ton more this spring, though.

Nick: For the Phils, would signing Keuchel and moving Pivetta to the pen make more sense than just signing Kimbrel? (Not that either scenario is likely.)
Keith Law: Yes but I think they still view Pivetta as a long-term starter. I think he’s too vulnerable to LHB.

Steve (nyc): You have mentioned how it is like work when being in large social settings. I have similar experience and can’t get spouse to understand why I don’t always want to entertain. How do you handle this?
Keith Law: To what extent does your spouse understand why you feel this way? Explaining your anxiety or discomfort may help. Even asking them to read something that gets into what anxiety is and why we feel it could help them understand.

Big Time Timmy Jim: You’ve maintained that you never questioned Luis Severino’s stuff, only whether or not he can hold up longterm given the delivery and body. In two consecutive years, his stuff worn down in the 2nd half, and how with real shoulder/arm issues to start 2019. While I know you don’t advocate for any pitchers to be injured (and actively root for them to succeed, even if it means you’re ‘wrong’), is there just a small part of you that wants to say “This is what I was talking about, guys.”?
Keith Law: Yes, it occurs to me – I took this question, which some readers might interpret as prima facie evidence that I’m gloating – but i find it nauseates me to think about taking pride or pleasure in a player’s injury, if that makes sense. I’ve said this before – that baseball player who fails is a grown-up kid who always dreamed of being a major leaguer. I get physically uncomfortable when fans mock, heckle, or just boo opposing players who fail. I get that most fans do this stuff or think it’s fine or even funny, but that’s still a human on the receiving end of the invective.

Jerry: Carlos Correa has been pretty adamant that he won’t sign an extension. Good for him. I think every player should make as much as they can. Assuming he walks do the Astros have any SS-3B types in the minors who project as better than average MLBers by the time he’s a FA?
Keith Law: I hear Betts is the same way. Right now, no, I don’t think they do.

Mike : Why do you keep saying Kelenic was the Mets top prospect when your list is the only one that has him ahead of Gimenez
Keith Law: Because … it’s … my … list.

Newt: I don’t know if he’ll ever hit consistently, but man, watching Byron Buxton break the sound barrier rounding second en route to his triple last night was jaw-dropping.
Keith Law: And at the plate, he looks like he did for most of 2017, too. I’m optimistic.

Lawl: Too early for top of the draft rumblings? White Sox have a chance at Vaughn?
Keith Law: They pick third so yes. If I had to guess – this is a guess, people, not based on much info at all – I’d say picks 1-2-3 were Rutschman, Witt Jr, Vaughn. Maybe then Abrams/Greene in some order, although neither did himself any favors at NHSI with 20+ directors and several GMs in attendance.

Tim Apple: Do the early struggles of the CWS make it more likely that they will call up Cease, Madrigal, et al this summer or less likely? Stadium is empty but does control outweigh draw or vice versa?
Keith Law: Cease is a no-doubt callup, isn’t he? They’re going to need more starters no matter what, just with typical attrition, and what if Reynaldo Lopez’s bad start is more than just SSS? Madrigal I doubt we see but I would be shocked if Cease isn’t up by July 1st.

Pete: How do you usually watch MLB each night? Lots of flipping between games or mostly settle in for one on each time slot?
Keith Law: Depends on the night. Lately I’ve been watching a lot of the Padres because they nearly always have someone I want to see. Some nights I just bounce around close games.

MikeM: Yankees blog River Ave Blues is closing shop. They were one of the sites that really got me into baseball analytics and led me to learn a lot as a fan. I will miss their contributions to the baseball discussion (not withstanding Mike’s job with CBS sports). More baseball blogs should be like that and less reactionary.
Keith Law: Yes, they were one of the best team-specific blogs, and, in my opinion, a good bit less prone to the sort of jingoistic fandom into which even many decent blogs fall. I’ll always have fond memories of the one commenter there who called me a racist for omitting Donavan Tate from my top 100 the winter after Tate was the #3 pick in the draft.

Ben: How can we tell when a hot start is the 1% of times when it is real and not the 99% when it is a SSS? We hear so much about “swing tweaks” and trying out new pitches now that it seems like there is a report of something “different” on every player with a hot start.
Keith Law: I do not believe we can. We can guess, but that’s all we’re doing.

Chris P: This is the time guys generally pick up helium before the draft, so are there any guys you’ve been hearing about so far that are making the jump?
Keith Law: I wrote about Hunter Bishop a few weeks ago. Josh Wolf is a prep RHP in Texas who has surged. Josh Mears in Seattle is another one. Blake Walston in NC.

BigDaddeh: What are your thoughts on how much rest from baseball preteen kids should have. Not talking showcase circuit or max effort radar gun efforts, but fall ball after spring and summer and things like that
Keith Law: Pitchers should take at least 100 days off from throwing. I know that’s a bit of an arbitrary number but it seems in line with most of the recommendations I’ve heard from people I know with teams and from sources like PitchSmart.

Fan boy : Favorite minor league atmosphere within driving distance of your home?
Keith Law: Reading.

romorr: Adley is it at 1.1, right? No getting cute with underslot than overslot?
Keith Law: Why not? If you could sign Vaughn, save $1MM, and go grab JJ Goss for $3 million at your second pick, wouldn’t you do that?

Daniel: Hi Keith. Thank you for offering your fans this forum. What do you think is the reason that Forrest Whitley is not with the major league club? Is this more to give him innings due to the lack of them last season or a manipulation of the service time rule? I would think he is a better option than Peacock at this point.
Keith Law: Barely pitched last year at all.

Tony Montana: Is Jordyn Adams one of the highest ceiling players in the minors that is currently outside the top 100?
Keith Law: That’s reasonable.

Draft pick compensation: HEY! Don’t blame me for Keuchel/Kimbrel not signing. These guys think they’re getting $18M+ for 4+ years.
Keith Law: I would believe it hurts Kimbrel more than it hurts Keuchel.

JR: How would you handle Smith/Alonso if you were the Mets GM? Seems like two really good candidates at same position, but given Alonso is getting bulk of playing time a trade of Smith would be selling low on him?
Keith Law: I think Smith is trade bait. Even if Alonso slumps, he’s going to hold that job for a while – they’re not going to switch the guys if Alonso has a bad week. Helps that Smith looks good physically and has been solid in his minimal playing time.

Jake L.: When you are on a scouting trip, do you prefer to eat food at local restaurants or do actually eat at fast food chains once in awhile?
Keith Law: Local whenever I can. I do eat at Panera from time to time because I can eat something healthful while working too.

Esteban: Do you get more groupies (fans) from espn, food or writing/ reading books good? I like picturing fans waiting outside your hotel for autographs
Keith Law: I do not have groupies. I’m not sure I’d want groupies, but regardless, I do not have them. As for fans, I’ve been honored by how many of you have come to my various book signings.

Erik: thoughts on Minor League Baseball restricting usage of video from the games? Just saw that Baseball America took down all the in-game videos from their site.
Keith Law: Terrible. Waiting to hear if this is permanent and, if so, what they’re thinking.

MATT DAMON: Have you been able to see Cal Stevenson yet?
Keith Law: A tenth-round senior sign? Did I miss something?

Ben: Re Buxton, watching Billy Hamilton score from second on a fly out (is it scored as a sac fly??) was incredible.
Keith Law: Yep, that’s a sac fly.

Rod: When is the next mock draft coming?
Keith Law: You have never seen a mock from me before May 1st.

MATT DAMON: What happened to Logan Warmoth? He was ranked pretty high in your 2017 draft lift
Keith Law: Contact quality has been totally absent with wood. I’m floored – I thought his swing was good and was told his exit velocities in college were no worse than solid.

Brodie Van Jump on the Bandwagon: I am pleasantly surprised at Pete Alonso’s overall hitting– approach, hitting to all fields, etc. I recall you weren’t super high on him… I know it’s a small sample size, but he’s been pretty impressive on the hitting side, right? I think a 25 HR/90 RBI season and hiting .280+ may not be out of the question, especially if the Mets offense keeps on hitting. Thoughts?
Keith Law: I could see .280/25, and I could see .250-.260/30-35. I think I could see the latter more easily.

Matthew: I have recently entered the world of publicly published articles — I have to ask, how do you block out the unkind portion of a legitimate criticism, especially if the critique is a fair one?
Keith Law: Ignore. It invalidates the entire commentary for me.

Chris: Where does Hayden Simpson rank on your “WTF First Round Picks” list? The Cubs had some whiffs around that time period, but that was an all-timer, wasn’t it?
Keith Law: I believe that was one of only two times since I started this job that someone took a player in the actual first round I hadn’t heard of (although someone reminded me I did know who Simpson was, I had just totally dismissed him from my mind). The other was Kevin Matthews, 33rd overall in 2011 by Texas; he never got out of low-A with the Rangers, and had just one pro outing above A-ball at all, pitching in indy ball in 2018.

romorr: I’ve heard this here and there, but any truth to Trout falling in the draft because of Billy Rowell?
Keith Law: That was one variable among many, yes.

Charlie Indio Montoyo: Keith. I really respect your opinion alot. I just want to know why you think Thornton has below average command and control. He’s had a a 1.7 BB/9 in his entire minor league career (spanning nearly 450 IP), and he’s been able to locate his pitches really well in his first 2 starts (granted small sample size obviously).
Keith Law: Walk rate is not command.

Jake L.: How are you doing today after dunking on “the stick to baseball guy ” in regards to the Schilling thing? I don’t know if I ever laughed so much
Keith Law: I mean, my internal reaction to anyone who says “stick to baseball” is “go fuck yourself,” but rare is anyone so stupid as to non-ironically say “stick to baseball” when I’m actually commenting on baseball.
Keith Law: OK, that’s all for this week. Thank you all so much for reading. I do not think I’ll get to chat next week, and depending on travel/weather, the next chat will probably be April 24th. Enjoy your weekends, and if you’re at any of the Texas Tech/WVU games this weekend, I should be there for the one Alek Manoah pitches.

My ranking of the top 50 prospects for this year’s draft is up now for ESPN+ subscribers, as is a new scouting notebook covering six prep prospects I saw in April, five of whom are on the top 50.

Keith Law: Sometimes you break a finger on the upper hand. Klawchat.

Randal Grichuk: Tim Anderson is on an insane streak right now, but even though he has made some improvements, a lot of it is BABIP related. Moncada has cut his K-rate by 10% and has been awesome, but also has a high BABIP (although, with his contact profile and high exit velocity/speed, he could honestly be a .350 BABIP guy like Baez/Judge). Which of the two do you think is gonna end the season as better offensively, and do you agree that Moncada’s BABIP doesn’t need to regress *that* much due to his contact profile?
Keith Law: I’d rather bet on Anderson’s long term future.

Ray: I’m a big fan of Samin Nosrat’s show and cookbook , Salt Fat Acid Heat. Curious if you’ve seen/read either and what you thought?
Keith Law: I own the book but haven’t read it yet.

Bob: I hear a lot of complaining about the MLB ball wildly inflating AAA HR rates. If the point of bringing the MLB ball to AAA was to help players make the transition to MLB (I think that’s true?), then is this actually a problem or is this the policy working the way it was supposed to?
Keith Law: The bigger problem is that the MLB ball sucks. The answer to the problem was to un-juice the MLB ball, not bring the bad ball to AAA.

David: Enjoy your game lists. A long time ago you recommended Metro, a tile-laying game that has a similar format as many on your current top 100. Just wondering what happened to it – did you stop playing it because of the flood of new games, is it out of print, or did others just surpass it in your mind? Metro has long been one of our favorites, and it’s faster to play and simpler to set up and score than many of the more current games on the list, which is a plus for us. We just picked up Carcassonne finally (thanks for the link to the one-day sale!) and the game mechanics seem pretty similar so far, so I’m sure we’ll enjoy that one too.
Keith Law: Haven’t played it in years mostly because there are many better games in that vein – Carcassonne of course, but also Cacao, Karuba.

Kyle KS: I’ll eat some crow today on my Dexter Fowler question from a few weeks ago. He’s been a force since then and it has been fun watching him and Martinez get playing time and be all smiles in the outfield. You were right that they should keep giving him playing time. So no question, just a thanks for your work!
Keith Law: It’s still so damn early – everyone wants to react to the tiny samples of a few weeks of games but we have no real way to distinguish signal from noise in this little data.

Bob: Tirso Ornelas is off to a solid start, but not showing much HR power in the CAL. I’ve heard his called a potential middle of the order hitter. Does he have 25 HR/yr pop when he matures or a bit less than that?
Keith Law: He’s 19 in high-A. I don’t think he’s a future 30 HR guy, but please stop stat-scouting teenagers playing that far above their age level.

addoeh: Looks like you were able to see Quinn Priester on one of the few recent nice days in the Chicago area. Do you have any more thoughts on him beyond what you wrote in the top 50 draft piece or was there a draft prospect blog post I missed?
Keith Law: I have a blog post covering him, Barco, Callihan, Nunez, Siani, and Newell that should go up today.

Bob: Daniel Lynch has been extremely hitable in Wilmington. Have you seen him at all? I’m wondering to what extent that’s bad defense, bad luck or perhaps a sign that his stuff is a bit short for a mid-rotation projection.
Keith Law: I saw him. He’s fine.
Keith Law: Again, don’t scout the stat line.

James: Gallen for the Marlins and VanMeter for the Reds have big changes in their stats this year compared to last, are either of them good enough to be a regular going forward?
Keith Law: Gallen’s a back-end starter, still. Van Meter isn’t a shortstop, and obviously not a 50 HR guy, but he can hit and has come into more power even going back into last year, enough that I think he’s a clear big leaguer, maybe not with a set position but someone who can play semi-regularly while moving around.

Mike Greer: Is Devers slow’ish start mostly a product of not barreling the ball & poor launch angle (1.1% Barrel% | 5.6% LA) or is it a product of the skills not being as good as we thought? I know you’re bullish on him, but I wanted to see if your early season assessment has changed at all.
Keith Law: No, my early season assessment has not changed at all.

Frank V: Jesse Winker’s early season power numbers look great, regardless of his low AVG and poor BAIBP luck – do you think we are looking at a star in the making?
Keith Law: Yes, he was on my breakout list for that reason – that I think the power he showed last year was real.

Este: Thots on The hype surrounding Vladdy already. I saw video in the streets of d.r. of people cheering on his routine putouts. I love it
Keith Law: I love it too. I’d love it more if he’d been treated fairly, and if MLB and the Jays hadn’t been promoting him while also suppressing his salary.

Mike: Keith, love the chats. I know you can’t draft for need, but the Mets really have no OF prospects in full season ball. Would you recommend they draft an OF in first 2 rounds or still draft BPA?
Keith Law: Always, always, always draft best player available.
Keith Law: That said, don’t be shocked if they end up with a college bat at 12.

Patrick: Did you do Endgame? If so, had you seen all the movies leading up to it?
Keith Law: Hell no. One, I won’t go sit through any three-hour movie in a theater. But two, time travel is the *laziest* plot device ever. I don’t bother with movies that insult the audience’s intelligence like that.

Joe: Keith, how would you rate Adley compared to other recent top draft prospects? Is he the best prospect since Harper?
Keith Law: No, definitely not “the best since Harper.” He’s fine, not clearly 1-1 in every draft though.

Mike G: Worried about Royce Lewis’s slow start?
Keith Law: About his start, no. About the changes to his mechanics – he’s gotten very noisy, with a hitch now and multiple triggers – yes.

Drew W: Totally SSS, but Nolan Gorman’s power sure is playing up in Peoria. Would you put it as high as 70?
Keith Law: I put it at 80 in 2018 before he was drafted.

JAS: Is it reasonable to expect the Padres to contend when most of their hitters seem allergic to taking walks? They are next to last in OB%, and it seems to be a system wide issue.
Keith Law: Their system as a whole and major-league roster in particular are all very young.

BigDaddeh: Has Gosuke Katoh taken the leap or is this SSS noise?
Keith Law: SSS. He slugged .335 last year.

Dr. Bob: Hey there, Keith. Cardinals, Rays, and Twins are making your preseason predictions looking pretty good right now.
Keith Law: It’s nice to get something right occasionally.

Elizabeth Warren 2020: How depressing is it that we (myself included) feel comfortable writing off Mayor Pete in the primary, largely over a weak position on vaccines, but at the same time would take Richard Nixon’s head in a jar over Trump in the general election? Really shows how far apart the two parties are.
Keith Law: Are those even the same question, though? The former is Buttigieg vs the field of candidates; the latter is Buttigieg vs Trump. Of course I’d take the field in the former and Mayor Pete in the latter. (He did clarify that he opposes nonmedical exemptions.)

Robert: How high are you on Xavier Edwards? I know it’s still early but batting 400 with strong BB skills first year out of HS in the cold MW league is impressive. Even with the lack of power can he be a 55? See any Dee Gordon to his game?
Keith Law: I’m a fan, but he’s nothing like Dee Gordon.

Robert: Would you cut bait on Kinsler and just start Urias if you’re the Padres?
Keith Law: Yes.

Moe Mentum: Nick Pivetta. Should he convert to the bullpen, or can he figure it out to be a mid-rotation starter?
Keith Law: I’ve thought he would go to the pen for a while because he doesn’t have a viable pitch for lefties.

Meeeeeeeeeee: Do you think hitters are getting used to the higher velocity of the past decade, and (if so) could that possibly lead to teams giving more chances to pitchers who rely on guile and pitching knowledge (like a Jamie Moyer type, for example)?
Keith Law: Teams seem to be more concerned with guys who have strong secondary stuff now – Matt Allan is the top prep arm this year because he has the best breaking ball of that group – or who have clean deliveries and athleticism so that they can go into a player development system that works to develop new or refine existing pitches.

KLAU: Where does Shea Langeliers go at this point? Still a 1st rounder?
Keith Law: yes. Somewhere in the 15-30 range.

Meeeeeeeeeee: What is the political atmosphere like in Delaware regarding Biden? Are people excited, or do they have a ‘been there/done that’ attitude about him running?
Keith Law: He’s less popular locally than you might think.

Sage: Is Jon Lester best FA signing by Cubs EVER ?
Keith Law: Dawson in 1987 is tough to beat, but that’s not a fair comparison.

Greg: Hey Keith, Austin Riley’s K rate went from 29% last year to 21% in 100+ PAs this year. Is that enough sample size to believe in, or still small sample size?
Keith Law: Take a guess.

Gene: I miss Jarred Kelenic and I didn’t even like the trade at the time
Keith Law: He’s had a funny/weird season too. He started out 2 for 25 in his first seven games, with 7 BB and 9 K. Since then he’s hit in every game (17) and is at .456/.513/.868 in that stretch.

steve: Keith: Very impressive year plus for Red sox prospect Jarren Duran. Profile seems to be slap hitter with speed/ What are your thoughts here. Also does CJ Chatham have a big league future in him?
Keith Law: Duran is legit, chance to be a regular. Can really hit. Chatham probably a UT.

Jeff: To be clear, you think there is such a thing as a 9 year old “trans” child?
Keith Law: What I think is immaterial. Nine-year-old children can be transgender; that is just a fact. That’s not to say that all children who exhibit gender nonconforming behavior are trans, but a child nine or even younger can identify as a different gender than the one they were assigned at birth. Denying this fact will just do more harm to these children, who already experience sky-high rates of suicide and violence.

Tom: Who’s the best reliever only draft prospect this year, and could they be ready for October in the majors?
Keith Law: I have yet to hear of any relief prospect in this draft who is good enough to get to the majors this year.

Eric: Do you think Pete Alonso is an All-Star caliber player?
Keith Law: I think he’ll make the team this year, almost certainly.

David: Should the Braves bench Ender and play Camargo everyday? Ender hasn’t been good at all offensively and with Acuna shouldn’t he be in CF anyway?
Keith Law: Yes, I’ve been arguing that for a while now.

Steve: With the top 4 probably gone, who should the Tigers target?
Keith Law: I’ll do a mock for Monday but I don’t know that the top 4 will be gone either.

Eric: What is the ceiling for Simeon-Woods ?
Keith Law: #2 starter? Heard very good things back to last summer, have not seen him myself yet.

Zach: Is there an adjusted BABIP stat that accounts for hard-hit and line drive %?
Keith Law: Several, but I don’t think any of them has a high enough predictive value to rely upon.

Chris: Can Chavis play 2nd long term? Or is he strictly a corner infielder?
Keith Law: I’d be surprised if he could play anywhere but first base as a regular. He might hit enough to be a regular at 1b though.

Eric: At what age would starting books with actual stories and chapters be appropriate?
Keith Law: I can only speak to my daughter’s experience but I was reading her simple books like the original Mary Poppins stories and Winnie-the-Pooh when she was 4. There’s so much value in the interaction itself – the time you’re spending with your child as you read to them – that I wouldn’t worry if your kid isn’t grasping every word. It’s just so valuable to be with them one-on-one like that.

Zac: What does Derek Hill have to hit to be a glove first center fielder?
Keith Law: If he keeps doing what he’s done in a tiny sample this year – which is brand new for him, so I’m not saying I buy into it – then he’s going to be at least a quality fourth outfielder for a long time.
Keith Law: He’s that good a defender and runner. He’s also barely getting on base right now, even with much improved power, so maybe it’s nothing.

John: I read an article today saying the Dodgers already won the Puig-Kemp trade because they got back Jeter Downs and Josiah Gray. Do you agree?
Keith Law: I liked the trade more for them at the time, since they acquired two real prospects for guys whose contracts were ending soon anyway.

Beans Mahones: Corbin Carroll with some helium. Anything on fellow WA HS OF Joshua Mears?
Keith Law: Mears maybe 30-60 range in the draft. Someone I considered for the top 50 but just left off.

Raani: You would cease contact with your parents if they hadn’t vaccinated you when you were young? Dude, are you mentally ill?
Keith Law: Technically, yes, I am, as I have been diagnosed with anxiety disorder, but since you’re using “mentally ill” as an insult, kindly go fuck yourself.

Ryan: any good HS prospects in Minneapolis this year?
Keith Law: Not on my top 50 but Drew Gilbert and Will Frisch at Stillwater HS, both committed to Oregon State, are both prospects even though they might end up at school (to be overused like Abel and Rasmussen?).

Jim: Keith, I know it’s SSS and all that, but at what point do you sit someone who’s not hitting and not looking particularly good (I’m looking at you, Brian Dozier & Ryan Zimmerman)? After all, while it’s early, it’s not too early to dig too deep a hole for a team to get out of. Thanks, and welcome back!
Keith Law: Feel like Dozier is someone you’d give up on more than Zimmerman.

Chris P: When you say “non-prospect” that obviously means a guy isn’t going to become a star, but what would you call a guy that wont make your lists but likely can stay in the big leagues for 5-7 years?
Keith Law: Sometimes I would just say “big leaguer,” or extra guy or reserve. I think some readers would view any of those as denigrating the player, but it’s really not – it takes a lot of ability to get to that point.

Stubbs: Julio Rodriguez (SEA-OF) is a Guy?
Keith Law: He’s a prospect – but he’s hurt now, unfortunately.

alex: Who has the bigger upside, DL Hall or Grayson Rodriguez? I think Hall because he is LH, but GRod seems to be doing well and is a big dude. Thanks
Keith Law: Rodriguez has more size and velocity but I’d bet on Hall having the better career.

Troy: What is your favorite protein to cook with?
Keith Law: Duck.

Chris P: I try to remind myself that nothing really matters until the end of June…but I’m definitely enjoying this Buxton comeback so far
Keith Law: He was also pretty good the last five months of 2017, before injuries ruined his 2018. I’m more inclined to buy into a good April when there is preceding performance to support it.

Michael: How much confidence do you have in ranking a player in the top 50 that you’ve never seen but have heard great things about from others you trust?
Keith Law: I do enough work on those players that I feel pretty confident in the 50 guys I listed. I’ve seen 25 of the 50 on my list so far this spring, not counting anyone I saw last summer.

Snowy: Is McKay’s ceiling an ace? Or more of a #2?
Keith Law: More of a #2 due to lack of a clear plus pitch.

Troy: Does Dakota Hudson rate out as a 1 or 2 starter long term?
Keith Law: I don’t think he’s a starter long term.

Tyson: Keith, who is the most talented high schooler outside of Harper you have ever evaluated?
Keith Law: Of course we didn’t know at the time but the accurate answer would be Mike Trout.

Alex: Is Yordan Alvarez a major leaguer given his defense liabilities?
Keith Law: Definitely a major leaguer.

Peter Brand: Thoughts on Caster Semenya ruling?
Keith Law: Gross and scientificially inaccurate. There is no such thing as a “male hormone;” all humans produce testosterone, and calling that a male hormone is just ignorant. Gross because this feels like white women mad they couldn’t beat the black woman so they got a court to rule her some kind of freak.

Chris P: What’s the deal with Quantrill now? I know his 2018 was a disaster, so has something changed?
Keith Law: Yeah, his velocity is mostly back. He was 93-96 last night, which is much closer to his 2016 self. I’m intrigued.

Bynd : What is your impression of Beyond Meat?
Keith Law: I’ve cooked their burgers a few times and they’re great. My biggest complaint is how wasteful the packaging is.

Luke: No question, just wanted to say thank you for all the work you do. My wife’s son and I greatly enjoy it.
Keith Law: You’re quite welcome. I’m glad many of you enjoy it.

John: I’m seeing Cal play next week at USF, do you see Darren Baker as an early round prospect?
Keith Law: No. He can run, not sure there’s much else. Their first baseman is pretty good though…

Troy: When is it a trend instead of a SSS? June1?
Keith Law: There is no concrete date after which all sample sizes are automagically non-small. As the sample sizes grow, our confidence in the signal should gradually increase.

Frank: if you had to chose 1, Waters or Pache? (luckily the braves dont have to make this decision)
Keith Law: Pache. Elite defender with power.

Michael: For those confused on small sample size, Betts went from .239 to .290 in six games. It’s so early.
Keith Law: Perfect example.

Tadd: Josh Bell is…..very good? That boy has been CRUSHING baseballs this year.
Keith Law: He’s always had the ability, but for whatever reason he didn’t seem to try to drive the ball even in AA and certainly not in the majors. The Pirates signaled a whole new hitting approach for this year; maybe he’s the big beneficiary.

Sam: Thoughts on CHVRCHES saying they refuse to work with Marshmello again after he worked with Chris Brown and Tyga?
Keith Law: Good for them.

Jeff: Is there a Dominic Smith solution? He’s been raking when getting AB’s but you can’t really blame NYM for playing Alonso. Has to be a trade in the near future right?
Keith Law: Yep. Can’t bench Alonso, can’t let Smith rot on the vine. Best solution is a trade, once they decide what they most need.

PD: Will we see another draft pick go straight to the majors again?
Keith Law: I can’t say never, but it’s not bloody likely.

Jay: Do you think Cole Tucker has the ability to stick with the Pirates all season or will one of the Seinfeldian Kevin’s push him back to the minors due to service time considerations?
Keith Law: Wouldn’t surprise me if he ended the year as their shortstop or second baseman – his arm has been inconsistent for me post-surgery – but I don’t think they’re gaming his service time.

Frank: Tapia looks like an exciting player in Colorado…i wish they’d release Desmond but its nice to see him sit 3-4 days a week.
Keith Law: Tapia is unconventional but he’s got crazy hand-eye and I think he’ll hit as long as he’s given playing time.

Victoria: Luis Urias showcasing some previously unheard of power. Any thoughts for this to continue this year / into the bigs? A mirage?
Keith Law: Small sample + crazy hitter’s environment + new juiced balls in AAA. (The baseballs are juiced, I mean. Stop that.)

Eric: (can we not refer to josh bell as “boy,” please …)
Keith Law: Sorry, I completely missed that. You are correct.

Uli Jon: It seems you get a lot of response on your philosophy on hiring domestic abusers. I imagine there’s some scenario where you might allow it – the perpetrator is genuinely contrite, accepts their punishment, is open to exploring underlying issues that led them there, engage personally, financially, and in perpetuity with organizations and victims. As far as examples of this…wait, still checking.
Keith Law: Right – can we have one such case of a player expressing actual remorse and acting upon it in a meaningful way first? Trea Turner handled the revelation of his past homophobic tweets extremely well, so the community as a whole forgave him and moved past it. Josh Hader didn’t, and plenty of us still think he got away with something. In the case of (more serious) DV suspensions, every single player has talked his way around what he actually did.

Marco: We have nearly 2 full baseball seasons, including playoffs and World Series, until the next Presidential election. Do you agree that the breathless media coverage of every schmoe that announces their candidacy is bordering on lunacy?
Keith Law: Yes. I’d go further, that I think the ridiculous coverage and the desperate need to rank all these candidates, including the various slapdicks throwing in their hats when we’ve never heard of them before, subverts any semblance of a rational process.

Danny: Is Andrew Dalquist a Yankee target at 30/38 (he’s the only SoCal prep arm on the list)
Keith Law: I haven’t heard them at all with him or any prep arms for them right
now.

Grover: Any chance you think we might see May or Gonsolin called up for LAD this fall?
Keith Law: Doubtful. Again, I don’t like saying never, but it doesn’t make a ton of sense.

Moose: White Sox seem allergic to prep players with 1st round picks. Would they consider Witt if Adley & Vaughn go 1 and 2?
Keith Law: I don’t think Witt gets to them right now, but I don’t think it’s an “allergy” but a preference. They have a good system with a young core in the majors and a few more prospects near the majors, so it makes some sense to focus on guys who’ll move quickly.

Devon: What’s the story with Jamie Westbrook in the DBacks system? He’s hitting well (granted, its in the PCL) but is he a prospect?
Keith Law: I don’t think he is.

Corey: Boston’s slow start has resulted from many things, bullpen not really being one of them despite the media’s off-season worry beads. And there appears to be quite a bit of reliever depth in the system. Can we stick a pin in the Boston needs to sign Kimbrel thing ? Not going to happen given the actual cost after tax penalties. I don’t think the Sox need anything other than just to play better (and a 2b staying healthy)
Keith Law: Agreed. I feel like the bullpen is not near the list of their biggest problems, and also something they could fix more easily.

Danny: Do you think Luke Voit’s success is sustainable and did prospect analysts “miss” on him?
Keith Law: Lindsey Adler has a great piece on him in the Athletic (in the Athletic or on the Athletic?) that talks about the changes in his entire approach since the Yankees acquired him. I think much of it is sustainable because there’s a foundation of tangible changes there.

Dick Hickock & Perry Smith: Have yu ever read In Cold Blood? Thoughts?
Keith Law: I did. Capote falling in love with one of the murderers is problematic, to be kind, but it’s a hell of a read.

Minny: Alex Kirilloff was just activated today at AA. Does his injury to start the season remove any hope (if there ever was any) of seeing him in September? Or does the Twins competitive team and full OF make it a moot point anyway?
Keith Law: Yeah it’ll take an injury to find a spot for him, I think.

Jerry: Astros team offensive numbers looking pretty good. Except for hitting with RISP. Reason for concern or simply wait for regression to the mean?
Keith Law: Batting with RISP is just batting. There’s no such thing as a hitter who only hits without RISP.

Adam D.: I get what you’re saying about time travel being lazy as a plot device. And certainly if you aren’t invested in the characters and stories they’ve built up, Endgame doesn’t make much sense to go see. That said, for those of us who are invested, I did not feel insulted by the use of time travel at all. It’s handled far better than just about any movie besides maybe Looper, and the payoffs are tremendous.
Keith Law: Meh. If you guys like it, great, but my daughter watched Infinity War last week and I couldn’t get through a half hour. I also kind of have an issue with the whole characters throwing each other into buildings, off buildings, into walls, etc. as a means of conflict resolution.

Mark: Chris Sale, there’s obviously something wrong with his arm/shoulder right? You would think the Sox have done countless tests on his arm since last year, especially before signing him to an extension so what the heck is going on?
Keith Law: He doesn’t look healthy at all. I can’t speak to what the Red Sox did before the extension, but he looks (from his stuff and command) like someone who is pitching hurt.

MacDaddy: Thoughts on the possibility of George Valera finishing the year as a top 25 prospect?
Keith Law: No.

Jeff: Thanks for the chats/tweets/content. Are there any college games you are planning to scout in the near future?
Keith Law: I’m planning to hit the ACC tournament and I want to go see Vanderbilt before then. That’s probably it – it’s writing/phone calls/texting time for me, with the draft 32 days away (cue @infinite_scream).

Nate: Why do you spend so much time arguing with random people on Twitter? Wouldnt that time be better spent on your family or on your marriage or some other worthwhile endeavor?
Keith Law: The irony of someone coming to my free chat, which I do on my own time for no direct compensation, to ask this question is really quite something.

Randy: Just started getting into coffee recently, what kind of coffee maker would you recommend starting off?
Keith Law: I got a Hario V60 pour-over setup, which uses paper cone filters, for making myself a cup of coffee. It’s like $25, doesn’t require a fancy grinder, and aside from the fact that it takes about five minutes to make a cup it’s easy and convenient.

Hi: Despite you being Luis Robert’s Kryptonite, what are your thoughts on him? Has his performance warranted a bump up on top prospect lists?
Keith Law: I wrote him up last month, but I don’t move players up my lists after three weeks in the minors, sorry.

Joe: Keith, Blake Rutherford has been bruuuutal so far. Safe to write him off?
Keith Law: Just set him to the side. I really hate the idea of calling a player a bust, or assuming he’ll never turn into anything. Look at Voit, for example. Or, less extreme, Max Kepler, who is having his first good (maybe very good?) MLB season right now (SSS) *ten years* after he signed as an amateur. Guys change, they grow and mature on their timetables, and so they can always surprise us.

Josh: What are your thoughts on how Alex Verdugo has looked so far? Seems even better than I anticipated, especially holding his own against lefties.
Keith Law: He’d earned the opportunity on the field, at least. I feel better about him hitting .300+ going forward than about him slugging .600+.

Troy: I know you’ve mentioned autism is far more likely in older fathers. As a 41 year old having one last child should I be concerned?
Keith Law: Not sure you can do anything about it. Just hope for the best!

Danny: You saw Deivi’s “debut” in AA (he had a spot start in Trenton last year)? How is his changeup coming along and do you think he stays in the rotation?
Keith Law: I’ll write up the start soon, but his changeup was above average for me.

Questioning: What’s the difference between transgender and intersex? I know that the brain can be wired differently to not match genitalia, or there are both or no genitalia. But I’m confused on the specifics and want to understanding.
Keith Law: The Intersex Society of North America has a great answer to this Intersex encompasses a lot of conditions, but the best lay explanation I can think of is that they are born neither clearly male nor clearly female, which includes their genitalia. Many of these theocratic, GOP-pushed laws punishing trans people will also adversely affect intersex people, which is an added layer of injustice.

Mike: What do you think about how the Cubs have/are handling the Addison Russell situation?
Also, when does Kris Bryant start hitting again?
Keith Law: They should have non-tendered Russell in December. That was their biggest mistake.

AGirlHasNoName: If the Cubs were going to extend Baez, what would the numbers look like? Would you try to do it if you were the Cubs?
Keith Law: I would definitely try to extend him. Maybe offer him 6 years $125 million? Covers two arb years, four FA years.

Matthew: SSS of course but has Alec Hansen found a home in the pen? If he keeps the walks down, could he close?
Keith Law: Not sure about closing, but he’s back on the path to the majors. I saw him here a few weeks ago – his delivery is simpler now, just very functional, not great but it helps him throw strikes.

Jerry: RE: Troy. My children were born when I was 42 and 45. Both turned out fine. My nephew was born when my BIL was 31. He’s on the spectrum. Like Keith said, you just hope for the best.
Keith Law: So many of these things are risk factors but far from definitive. I think I mentioned this issue with respect to Robert Deniro, who was 55 when his son, who has autism, was born. Big difference there.

Tim : Heard you were one of the most sought after bachelors in Delaware.
Keith Law: The girls, the girls they love me…
Keith Law: (That’s Heavy D. I know it was recycled into another song more recently, but please, let’s stick with the classics.)

Drew: I just finished the Whiskey Robber book. I have no idea how I wasn’t aware of him, what an incredible story. Great recommendation.
Keith Law: Glad you liked it! One of my five favorite nonfiction books ever. Delightfully bonkers.

Chuck: If I could search all prospect rankings for keywords, would a phrase similar to “great athlete who just needs to make better contact to be a 5 tool stud” have the worst performance relative to ranking?
Keith Law: Agreed. I had this chat with a scout the other day – we can talk tools all we want but you have to hit.

Greg: Do you have any thoughts on the chickenpox vaccine? My kids have all their usual vaccinations, but I do wonder if they even need a chickenpox vaccine. Overkill, or long overdue?
Keith Law: Long overdue and utterly necessary. Varicella can kill adults.

Brett: Do you watch Jeopardy? Have been watching the run James is on? Guy is impressive. Love how he uses his math skills to increase his odds.
Keith Law: I don’t but it’s a great story and apparently he’s a hardcore baseball fan (and stats nerd, a term I use with great endearment).

Justin R: Ever think of doing a juice cleanse?
Keith Law: I don’t believe in pseudoscience, sorry.

Justin R: I know you don’t care about either, but if you’re at a bar and the NHL and NBA playoffs are on, which one are you ignoring less?
Keith Law: More likely to watch hockey.

Ed: You don’t strike me as an overweight lover !!
Keith Law: No, but I am currently in the house.
Keith Law: That’s all for this week – thank you all for your questions and patience with my erratic schedule the last month-plus. It’ll calm down for the foreseeable future as I focus more on draft writing and less on traveling to see players. (I realized I’m also still trying to see Corbin Carroll, as well as Bleday and the ACC guys, then I’m done.) I should be back for a fresh chat next Thursday, and the mock (projected) first round is scheduled to go up Monday for ESPN+ subscribers. Thank you again!

My first mock draft for 2019 went up on Monday, and I have a blog post up on JJ Bleday and other Vandy/Louisville prospects.

Keith Law: Go and run yourself a million miles. Klawchat.

Trevor: Casey Mize is the best college pitching prospect since __________?
Keith Law: Gerrit Cole.

Bob: Forest Whitley has been mediocre in his short starts and terrible in his relief appearances, so bad he’s not even building up IP. Whatever the Astros plan, it doesn’t seem to be working on any level. What would you suggest?
Keith Law: I don’t draw that conclusion. It’s five appearances, characterized mostly by more home runs – and they’re using the MLB ball in AAA. Unless he’s hurt I’m unconcerned. Steady on.

Mark: In what order would you place these, Shake Shack,5 guys,In N Out ?
Keith Law: I no longer eat beef, so this is based on my memories from beyond two years ago – Shake Shack > In n Out > Five Guys.

Trevor: At what point can an umpire call a balk/ball on a pitcher for stopping mid windup with no one on base? Ryu did it multiple times (4-5) in his last start where it got to the point of annoying. Would the ump call it if Inciarte squared around it bunt and then Ryu stopped?
Keith Law: It’s not a balk if there’s no one on, right?

addoeh: I saw recently that you said weren’t a fan of Moby Dick. I have to say, though, I think that it is some of John Bonham’s best work.
Keith Law: Agreed. Melville got better treatment than he deserved.

Aaron C.: SSS *and* zero gravity home field *and* “scouting the stat line” notwithstanding; I am ALL IN on Jorge Mateo. Am I a crackpot?
Keith Law: Not a crackpot, but 1) the power definitely isn’t real and 2) he’s repeating triple-A, just now in a better ballpark. But he also has long had real ability, especially his speed, that we can’t ignore.

Kyle: People seem to be making a big deal about you taking Yordan out of your top 100 based on the season he is having. Even without much defensive value, the bat seems quite impactful. Do you want a redo yet?
Keith Law: No, I don’t, and that’s really the wrong way to ask that question.

Elton: Is Alejandro Kirk a name to monitor? Bat seems special and particularly intriguing at catcher.
Keith Law: Yes, he was in my Toronto org writeup as a real prospect, and who doesn’t love a fat catcher? I’m all in on the fat catchers.

Nick: Daniel Norris is finally getting regular starts. What are your thoughts on how he’s looked so far? Do you think he can stay in the rotation long-term throwing this many curveballs?
Keith Law: Fangraphs only has him throwing the curveball 6% of the time, the lowest rate of his four pitches, so I’m not sure if you’re just conflating that and the slider or if you mean something else. I do think he has to be offspeed-heavy, maybe more so than he has been, because his secondary stuff is good but his fastball is below-average now. I also think he has the offspeed weapons and the aptitude to be an average or better starter even averaging just 90 mph.

Bookz: Keith, big fan of your fiction recommendations and I wanted to pass one back. Based on your “Swamplandia” recommendation, I looked for similar authors and hit on Amy Bloom’s “Lucky Us.” Strong authorial voice, with a bit less of Russell’s sense of impending dread. Great read!
Keith Law: Thanks! I’ll add it to the endless list.

Manny: If you were KC, would you take Witt Jr, Vaughn, Bleday, or Abrams at 1.2?
Keith Law: When I rank players, that’s my ‘board.’ So my #1, Rutschman, is gone in your scenario, and then I’d take my #2, Vaughn.

Nomah: I know he’s still really young…but is this kind of what Mazara is? Everyone says they see more potential in him. What might it take to bring it out? Different hitting coach/approach? Change of scenery (even though the ball jumps out of his current park)?
Keith Law: He’s still putting the ball on the ground too often, and not getting deep enough into counts. I don’t know what will bring that out but I am positive the Rangers have tried to get him to make adjustments along those lines.

Ben: When young hitters come up, struggle, and then need to “make adjustments,” what does that even mean? It seems like the easy answer for fans to grasp is that they need to be more selective and not swing at sliders down and away. There has to be more going on, but as a fan we rarely hear what those “adjustments” actually are. Are there common things young players need to do, or is it too individualized?
Keith Law: Hah, there’s the phrase in question. It can be as simple as recognizing that pitchers will attack the hitter in a certain way because he’s shown some vulnerability, and then changing his approach so he’s not chasing whatever pitch(es) he’s getting. It can be more significant, like mechanical changes, from adding a trigger to changing the stride or setup to adjusting hand positions. It’s a catch-all term.

Dana: Domingo German seems to have figured out how to throw strikes. Still a reliever for you?
Keith Law: His command/control was never the reason I thought he’d end up in relief.

bryan: Hi Keith – I know that you had projected a college bat to the A’s in your first mock draft. Do you think that they could still look to target high ceiling players like Hampton, Toglia and Paris in the first couple of rounds? Thanks and keep up the great work.
Keith Law: Toglia’s not a high-ceiling guy but I do not believe they’re definitely taking a college bat. They could certainly go after some ceiling; I did not hear them on Hampton at all, FWIW.

Griz: Greatly enjoy your work. Any thoughts on the board game, “Planet”? Just heard of it and wondered if you’ve played it
Keith Law: On my list for the summer. Blue Orange did offer me a review copy in advance of Earth Day but I couldn’t get to it in time for that with other games I’d already lined up to review. Hoping I’ll get to Planet before GenCon.

Tyson: What do you think about Joe Ross? Starter? If so, could he be a trade piece for a solid BP arm to a team that isn’t “win now” and could let him develop as a starter?
Keith Law: Starter if he can stay healthy. That’s been an issue since he signed, though.

Patrick: Keith, are there certain college stadiums you enjoy visiting more than others? Ones that have a great view/ambience/sightlines, etc?
Keith Law: It’s more about the cities than the ballparks. I love going to Nashville, Louisville, Oklahoma City, so any scouting trip that gets me to places like those works for me.

Patrick: Hey Keith, one thought from last week leads to this week’s question. On your dislike for superhero movie violence, does that also extend to horror films? I struggle with both of those tropes, and wonder if you view them through the same lens?
Keith Law: Even more so. I watch almost no horror films, and if there’s gore I’m just out. The idea of finding pleasure in watching even fictional depictions of graphic violence is abhorrent to me. I’ve said this before, but if you just arrested everyone who goes to see torture-porn films like Hostel on opening nights, you’d probably grab half the future serial killers in the country.
Keith Law: (I don’t think the films make people into killers, btw.)

Luke: Does Theo keeping in contact with Russell’s ex-wife do anything for you? If the victim appears to be accepting of Addison returning (meaning, hopefully he’s been sincere and taken steps to better himself), does that make this awful situation any less heavy?
Keith Law: Nothing will matter until Russell takes some actual responsibility here instead of talking about this as a “challenge” for him to overcome.

SGz: What do you see as the biggest benefit of seeing a player live versus tape?
Keith Law: Additional angles, and seeing the ‘small’ things that a player does – setting up before plays, watching him warm up, etc.

Clark: Is people flipping out over the OK sign proof that we do indeed live in clownworld?
Keith Law: Calling it “the OK sign” when it has gone from dumb internet joke to actual symbol used by white nationalists might make you the clown, Clark.

Matty K : Re: Moncada. Last year his strikeouts were in large part due to taking called third strikes on “border line pitches” (I.e. pitches within 1 inch or less of the zone). He led baseball with 60, trout was next with 41. (1) curious if this issue is more “fixable” than pure swing and miss issues (2) also when does the detriment in the drop in walk rate overshadow the benefits of less strikeouts from a more aggressive approach? Thanks as always for the thoughtful insight.
Keith Law: I don’t have a good answer for (2). For (1), it probably depends on the player. Swing choices and pitch recognition are different skills that have different underlying features – visual recognition/decision-making versus hand-eye coordination. I imagine that will differ by player.

Danny: Any reports on Spencer Howard before he got put on the shelf?
Keith Law: Stuff has been very good, again, was told the arm issue was minor.

Julie: Do you see any reason why the Orioles wouldn’t take Rutschman? Seems like a no-brainer, and Mike Elias seems like a reasonable guy. Are there any doubts that he’s the #1 pick?
Keith Law: He’s not the clear 1-1 guy in my mind. He’s the best prospect, but the gap between him and Vaughn is small, and the question for Elias is whether he’d rather have Rutschman + good HS prospect (at pick 42) or Vaughn + better HS prospect because he can cut a better deal with Vaughn at 1.

Brett: Do you believe the top 3 players in the upcoming draft, in whatever order, are Rutschman , Witt, Vaughan? Could Vandy OF Bleday move into the top 3?
Keith Law: I ranked them all here: https://klaw.me/2vrX6tV

Jeff: Sorry buddy, people have a right to refuse vaccines for any reason they choose- personal, private, or religious.
Keith Law: That may be true, pal, but you don’t have a right to refuse vaccines FOR YOUR CHILD, any more than you have a right to deny your child medicine, food, shelter, or other care. Do you want the right to beat your child too?
Keith Law: Also, it’s not even clear you have the right you think you do, except in your own head. Courts have ruled the government can force vaccinations during outbreaks and epidemics.

Fitz: Do you think Vlad Jr. early struggles (ie not seeing anything to hit) could be solved by moving him up from the 5th spot?
Keith Law: I don’t think where a player hits, other than batting in front of the pitcher, has any effect on his performance.

Greg: Any new top 10 buzz since your mock?
Keith Law: Not in the last 72 hours.

Rick: Office door closed with sign that reads “In Webinar – Do Not Disturb”. Actually just my weekly escape aka Klawchat. No question – just a simple thanks!
Keith Law: I’ll write a note to your boss.

Aaron C.: Earlier this year, you wrote that the A’s might have something with Nick Allen if he could get on base more. I *know* it’s silly to get excited about three weeks at Stockton (.356 OBP!), so should I follow up with you in, what, 2020? 2021?
Keith Law: It’s promising but I think double-A is the best test.

Sam: Do you allow your daughter to curse? My younger son has finally learned curse words, and I’m torn on how to react.
Keith Law: I never did much to hide those words from her in songs, but pointed out that some people don’t like those words and she shouldn’t use them (this was years ago). So far, she hasn’t started, but that could change at any time.

Guest: So what are your great American novels? It is tough because we are not talking about best I think but something different
Keith Law: I think Beloved is the best choice – I don’t see how you tell the American story without acknowledging such a massive piece of our history and cultural heritage. I understand why The Great Gatsby is often chosen, but I think it’s too narrow a slice of our past. Absalom, Absalom! does a better job of covering more ground – it’s the history of the American south, told through the rise and fall of one family – although it’s such an arduous read that I think it leaves a lot of people behind. Empire Falls is a dark horse choice for me, and maybe a little too narrow, but the way Russo interweaves the setting of a declining mill town into the lives of his characters makes it a very distinctive American story.

Andrew: What’s the best way to exercise for someone with mental health issues (depression, anxiety)?
Keith Law: There’s no best way. Every doctor or therapist I’ve ever talked to about this has simply said exercise is good. So whatever you can get yourself to do regularly is fine.

Mark: Love the brief guitar shows you do sometimes. I played a bit in high school ages ago and now I’m looking to get back into it. My question is if you’re self-taught, and if so what are some resources online that you’ve used to help yourself learn?
Keith Law: I taught myself in high school with magazines like the old Guitar for the Practicing Musician, then would find tabs on alt.guitar.tab and the like. I use Ultimate-Guitar a lot now (I pay for the pro tabs) but still do a lot by ear.

Eric: What is Sixto Sanchez’ ceiling? When should he be expected to be up; Sept? 2020?
Keith Law: Has to stay healthy for a full season before we think about him coming to the majors. I think it’s #2-3 ceiling in reality despite the huge velocity.

Cade: Austin Riley has been on an insanely hot streak for the past week or two. Have you come around on him as a prospect? What do you think his ultimate upside is?
Keith Law: A hot week or two doesn’t change my opinion of a prospect. He was in the right place on my top 100, with the same strengths (power, defense) and weaknesses (bat speed) today he had two months ago.

John: Does James Karinchak have a chance to be an impact reliever in MLB?
Keith Law: A chance, yes, not a large one. History of wildness and I believe shoulder issues.

Andrew: What’s the difference between Nolan Gorman leading up to the draft last year and Rece Hinds leading up to the draft this year?
Keith Law: Gorman’s power was bigger, and he had hit better the previous summer and fall than Hinds did.

Eric: You subpoenaed me to be here, but I’m just not gonna show up, cause, laws are fake, apparently.
Keith Law: Yep. And an entire party has decided it doesn’t care about laws as long as they can retain power.

Michael: With SSS, it’s amazing how batting averages and ERA’s can change so quickly. Fiers ERA went down by 1.4 in his no hitter. At what point in the season do stats not fluctuate so much off of one start or one week?
Keith Law: It’s gradual, but that is one reason I’ve always said Memorial Day is a good time to start looking at current-season stats in the majors – by then, we can still be in SSS territory, but the daily fluctuations are smaller.

Chris: Cal Quantrill was throwing hard Tuesday but control seemed iffy. Do you see him as a rotation piece long-term?
Keith Law: More interesting as a rotation piece now that he’s 92-96 again. Didn’t think he could start when he was 90-92 like he was last year. Still some concerns – it’s not a high quality FB, breaking ball isn’t great – but now he has a chance.

Joe: Sorry if I missed it, but did you do a write up on Deivi Garcia?
Keith Law: No, that’s in my back pocket till I see some more minor league games. I don’t usually wait this long but I try to avoid blog posts that are too short because of the subscription format.

Eric: Do you understand what Jeter et. al are doing with the Marlins, or are they just destined to last place for the rest of time?
Keith Law: I do understand it, I just don’t entirely agree with it.

Tim: Why was Kyle Hendricks overlooked as a prospect? Purely the radar gun?
Keith Law: That’s a major reason, but it’s not like he had some knockout breaking ball too. He’s an extreme outlier. That’s very fun, but if you figure out a way to identify the next Hendricks among all the minor leaguers throwing in the upper 80s with good control and no plus curveball or slider, please let me know, because I’m not that good.

Chris: I’m sure you’ve answered this before, but do you have a Top 5 for baseball movies? I just saw Major League for the first time and it was…fine? Not even sure it’d be in my Top 5, even though I know so many people love it. Just wondering what yours is!
Keith Law: And it’s aged very poorly. Jake flat-out stalks Lynn, and it’s supposed to be romantic. Sugar is my go-to rec, since so few people have seen it. Pelotero if you’d consider a documentary. I think Eight Men Out is solid. I enjoy Field of Dreams but it’s not much of a baseball movie, and neither is Bull Durham. Most baseball movies get the baseball very wrong, and/or rely on baseball to paper over bad plots.

randplaty: Is Paddack really a #1 or #2 starter? Or is he pitching over his head?
Keith Law: At least a #2.

Matt W: Any recommendations for a good vacation read? Something with a fairly engrossing plot rather than something meandering.
Keith Law: Eh, depends on your tastes, but one of my absolute favorite recent novels is Anthony Doerr’s All The Light We Cannot See.

Texas Bill: Is there definitive proof that MLB is using a “juiced” ball?
Keith Law: There is proof that changes to the physical characteristics to the baseball have contributed to the rise in home runs, yes. Dr. Meredith Wills has also argued it has contributed to the rise in blisters among pitchers.

Steve : What would you do if you are the Mets with Dom Smith? Have him get everyday ABs in AAA and work out a trade? What do you think they can get for him?
Keith Law: I would think you could get a similar player – a young, ready, potential at another position or a back-end starter. I don’t think sending him to triple-A helps his trade value, though.

Erin: Besides McKenzie Gore, which Padres minor leaguer are you most excited about?
Keith Law: Do I have to choose just one? OK, Luis Patino. Or maybe Tirso Ornelas. Xavier Edwards is really intriguing though.

MikeM: Deivi Garcia went 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 5 K last night. The strikeouts are there but he seems to have some control issues. I know you saw him in his first AA start this year. Do you think he has the athleticism to gain control or will he always be wild? What is a realistic outcome for him? There is ace upside there with the pure stuff but you can say that about a lot of guys.
Keith Law: Definitely not ace upside there – I like Deivi but that is not ace stuff or size. I also don’t think he’ll always be wild; he wasn’t wild last year, certainly.

Jeff: What type talents are Quin Cotton & Braden Shewmake? Rounds 3-5?
Keith Law: Shewmake more comp/second. Cotton you are spot on.

Minong: I really enjoyed Neil Gaiman’s American Gods, do you read his stuff?
Keith Law: I just finished Good Omens yesterday. American Gods is the best of his novels I’ve read.

Noel: Miguel Amaya has had an interesting year, with a 17% walk rate but a .226 BABIP. Has his early season results changed his future outlook at all?
Keith Law: SSS.

Andy: Rutschman is a switch hitting college catcher, who can field, with power. I’ve never seen him, but this screams Wieters, even without the Orioles conncetion.
Keith Law: He’s a much better receiver today than Wieters was, and we have better data to back that up.

Jeff: Will Brett Baty go out as a 3B? Do you think he stays there long term?
Keith Law: Yes. Probably not?

Fishing with E: I think there were 2 first rounders that didn’t sign last year. Do you expect that again this year?
Keith Law: That was a huge surprise to me, although those two players had several things in common that may have contributed to them not signing. I do not expect a repeat of that.
Keith Law: As in, I don’t think those factors are going to become more common, and teams may shy away from certain HS players to avoid that situation.

Andrew: Shouldn’t players in the final year of their contract (ie Z. Wheeler) be begging to be traded? That way they can’t be offered a QO. Which shows how ridiculous the QO system is. Are you in favor of any type of FA c compensation?
Keith Law: I’d eliminate FA compensation entirely. Of course, I’d eliminate or totally overhaul the draft, too.

Jay: Have you read Early Riser yet? Have you enjoyed Fforde’s non Thursday Next novels?
Keith Law: Own it, haven’t read it, enjoyed Shades of Grey in particular.

Chris Paddack: How would you handle my innings this year?
Keith Law: At some point you’re going to have to shut Paddack down, but I wouldn’t put a number on it now; see how the team’s season progresses and if Paddack shows any signs of fatigue at any point you move aggressively to rest him or end his season.

Jim Leyland Palmer: KLaw, if you were running the Tigers during this draft would you prioritize a guy like Belday (safer, closer to contributing) or Greene (More upside, but more risk and further away)? Our current crop of pitching should be due 2020/2021, would it be wise to line this pick up with that window or is that foolish?
Keith Law: Take the guy you like best.

Dave: You seem far less bullish on Rutschman than other people in the industry. What do you see as his limitations?
Keith Law: Don’t know about other people in the industry, but I know plenty of scouts who agree with me that his hit tool isn’t anywhere near what Vaughn’s is.

Matty K : It looks like Lucas Giolito is really starting to throw the ball better. Much improved k/swing and miss rate. I know you have stayed aboard when everyone else has jumped ship. Is this a result of the mechanical reversions you oft-referenced? (I.e, have you seen enough of a change to justify my excitement as a Sox fan?)
Keith Law: I’m in. Changeup is plus now. Velocity is back to where it was. Also he’s fully healthy this year.
Keith Law: Sorry, plumber is here fixing my dryer vent. Previous owners did everything so cheaply that any little problem becomes a large one (in this case, they cut the hole for the exhaust vent in the wrong place, so it was more than half obstructed by part of the wall dropping down into the pipe).

Pat D: I was watching the news yesterday and hearing a 12-year old say about how he was prepared to grab a metal baseball bat and not go down without a fight while some people were shooting up his school. And all I could think to myself was, “How fucking sad is it that a 12-year old kid even has to CONSIDER that?” Am I wrong?
Keith Law: You are not wrong, not at all.

John: Any chance at this point that Abrams makes it to the Reds at 7?
Keith Law: Extremely low, but I could never say zero. What hurts is that I’m not hearing any teams above there exploring under-slot deals – highest team I’ve heard doing that is Texas at 8.

bill wilhelm fan: projection for Logan Davidson to get selected?
Keith Law: Back half of the first round.

Eric: Saying the OK sign isn’t now the white nationalist movement’s symbol is like saying the swastika is just a Hindu symbol.
Keith Law: Good analogy.

Jeff: How much does a pre draft workout with a team mean in the weeks leading up to the draft? Does that mean serious interest? Is there a cutoff of say players we like in top 5 rounds or is it players an area scouts like etc. Thanks!
Keith Law: I wouldn’t read too much into that, but it does help teams narrow decisions.

Andy: Re Cubs contacting writers: How often are you confronted by a parent or club about your opinions?
Keith Law: Parents very rarely. Clubs sure, from time to time, but nobody has threatened me (in any sense of the word) in years.

Dave.: Is Yodan Alvarez similar to AJ Reed?
Keith Law: I think he’s better than Reed, but you have hit on a couple of my concerns – things that held Reed back that may also hold back YA.

Daniel: Would you say its counterproductive to trade relevant prospects for JD Davis and then not play him because you are overpaying the terrible Todd Frazier?
Keith Law: I really didn’t understand their trades this offseason. They created a lot of redundancy they didn’t need. That said, their issue now is playing the right guys – the trades are made, you can’t undo them – so the argument to play Davis isn’t that you gave up value for him but, as you said, that he can’t be worse than Frazier.

Chris J: Keith, clearly every player is an individual and no 2 are perfectly alike. With that said, some Os fans are leery of taking Rutschman first overall due to Weiters never really having hit the ceiling he displayed as a prospect. Is there something in the scouting, skillset, or other component of the process to indicate he could be more Posey and less Weiters? Thank you.
Keith Law: I’ll add to what I said above – not only is Rutschman a better defender, but I think we know he’s a better defender, and the industry also knows him as a person better because (I think) his grandfather played and then helped teach him to be a great defensive catcher from when he was pretty young.

Rick: C Randolph, M Moniak, A Haseley. We’ve gone from “pour bleach in my eyes” to “what were they thinking” to “we’ll he’s not terrible”. At what point do the Phils revamp their Amateur Scouting Dept??
Keith Law: Their double-A outfield is three first-rounders, all top ten picks, all off to brutal starts this year. I don’t like talking about revamping departments – that’s talking about scouts’ jobs – but I do think a different philosophy in the first round is required.

DH: Can Cavan Biggio be an every day 2B in Toronto this year?
Keith Law: No.

Jordan: Outside of a lack of power, what does Corbin Carroll need to improve on the most?
Keith Law: I’m not sure he really has a lack of power – he’s not Nick Madrigal. He’s pretty strong. He’s just 5’10”. So I guess he needs to get taller?

Sunny: How do you stay positive with the constant barrage of “world ending” news (animal extinction, climate change)?
Keith Law: I have always been fortunate in my ability to compartmentalize enough so that I’m aware of that shit but still able to get out of bed in the morning and look forward to good things each day. We could all live in existential dread, all the time, but it’s not exactly the quality of life to which I aspire.

Erin: Any thoughts on Brady McConnell? His numbers look good this year but haven’t heard much about him since he was a projected first rounder a couple years ago
Keith Law: He’s hit enough the last two months or so to put himself into the top two rounds for sure, maybe even late first. I have some questions about the hit tool and ability to stay at short, but he’s a really good athlete and maybe in the second round you roll the dice on that?

Ker Pal: Nate Pearson – a guy, a GUY, or a GUY!!!
Keith Law: Between the latter two. He’s been on my top 100 the last two years because there’s potential for a Syndergaard-like arsenal.

Jonathan: Has Alex Faedo turned a corner? Can’t find current scouting reports on him, but he’s pitching well through six starts in AA.
Keith Law: SSS. Stuff is the same.

Tim: Kris Bubic! SSS and a college guy in the Sally Lg. But has been impressive. Arrow up, or inconclusive till he gets to a more appropriate challenge?
Keith Law: Doesn’t belong there. Nothing negative, just can’t read anything into a Pac 12 guy going to low-A.

Kris: Missed the last chat to say that I’m absolutely pissed that I didn’t get to meet you in Morgantown, considering I currently live there. I’ll tell you now what I would’ve told you then. Thanks for everything. Although politically I’m more conservative, with your chats I’ve became more open minded to new ideas and ways to view policy. I genuinely thank you for that. I also greatly appreciate your baseball coverage. I hope you enjoyed Morgantown and everyone was hospitable.
Keith Law: That’s all very kind of you. Don’t feel too bad, though – I was in Morgantown for all of about four hours, just there for the game and then back to Pittsburgh.

DH: Kelenic or Gorman? It seems like Gorman has a higher ceiling if he can get to that power but Kelenic’s ceiling isn’t far behind and his floor seems so much higher?
Keith Law: Kelenic. Better hit, defense, run tools. May stay in CF.

Tom C: With Addison Russell and Tyreek Hill being the latest DV players in the news, it’s brought the usual assortment of fanboys/fantasy players with their usual “so, are they NOT supposed to be able to work now” takes. Which I always find amazing because if they were Addison the truck driver or Tyreek the CPA, literally none of them would give a crap whether those guys worked again. But hey, don’t ruin my entertainment bro.
Keith Law: Every damn time. Why are they so concerned with that player’s “right” to work? Oh, right, because laundry.

Dallas: White Sox have drafted Walker (18 2nd), Burger (17 1st), Sheets (17 2nd), Gonzalez (17 3rd), and Collins (16 1st) who all seem like potential 1B/DH (though I’m not entirely sure). Is Vaughn such a good bat that they would continue down this same path? Rutschman seems like an obvious selection for them if available but I question Vaughn.
Keith Law: I’ve also heard them with Abrams, because Kenny Williams likes him. (That’s the story, at least.) I’d much rather take Vaughn given his history. Also, although you’re correct on their last bunch of picks, I don’t think Collins and Sheets matter, and Gonzalez is definitely an outfielder.

Joe: Fearless prediction: if/when the banned Cubs fan’s name becomes public, it’ll take less than 20 seconds of viewing his Facebook/Twitter profiles to understand exactly why the Cubs are so sure it was a racist gesture.
Keith Law: Now there’s a story on Twitter (just since I started this chat) that he wasn’t racist, so who the hell knows. Here’s another suggestion, though: maybe don’t be a dumbass on live TV? Like, just wave and smile?

JP: Not a fan of horror or gratuitous violence, but do you avoid historical violence in TV/movies, such as war or slavery?
Keith Law: War, no. Slavery, sometimes. I never saw 12 Years a Slave for that reason.

Jonathan: What’s good on TV/Netflix these days? Looking for a show to watch this summer when I finally grab some free time.
Keith Law: Russian Doll is the last new show I binged.

BK : Does Jordyn Adams become a top 15 by seasons end you think?
Keith Law: Definitely not.

dmitry: BTW, agree with your answer to the exercise question. As a sports physical therapist who deals with anxious NYers, my best answer to which kind is “whatever has the best chance of getting you there”!
Keith Law: Good! Love to hear from experts. I talk mental health stuff because people ask, but ultimately I’m not an expert, just someone who is going through it myself and asks a lot of questions.

Fred: The Yordan take is not a good look for you.
Keith Law: Well, I ain’t good looking, but I’m someone’s child.

wrburgess: When players like Liberatore and Jhon Torres are held back in Spring, does that concern you or is it just a routine process?
Keith Law: No concerns unless we have definite word of something amiss.

Jonathan: Dream retirement spot?
Keith Law: Italy.

Geordy: I’m intrigued by the tools of Maurice Hampton, have you heard any word on his signability with his LSU dual-sport commitment?
Keith Law: I’ve heard he wants to play baseball. After the Murray fiasco, that’s the biggest question of all.

Kirk: I’ve seen you mention overhauling the draft a few places recently now. So…bulletpoints, 10,000 foot view, how would you do that?
Keith Law: I’m going to have to make that a column at some point soon because it’s too long to write anywhere else.

DH: I don’t think Mateo would move Semien off short so is there a path for Mateo? 2B over Profar? OF?
Keith Law: Centerfield.

Dr. Bob: RE: the OK/White Power sign. I had never heard of this when the Wrigley story came out. So I googled it, read a couple of article, and then I knew. Research. With the internet, it’s really easy to do now. Clark should try it sometime.
Keith Law: I don’t know why people are arguing so hard *against* the idea that there could be new ways to express hate.
Keith Law: Like, have we learned nothing the last three years

Mac: I’m sorry but I can’t wrap my head around a power switch hitting plus defensive catcher and an undersized R/R first base only being evaluated that closely. I just can’t see it
Keith Law: What if the first baseman projects to regularly post .400+ OBPs but the catcher might be in the low .300s? There are obviously thresholds where the two are close or even flipped.

Robert: Do you think part of the consternation that built up with Giolito is due to the fact he has been a prospect for so long? Hard to believe he is just 24!
Keith Law: Drafted at 17, very famous even before then, included in a high-profile trade … lot of factors going into people wanting to give up on a player.

Reader from 2015: Have you read “The Three Body Problem” trilogy yet? If you dig existentialism, it re-defines the idea.
Keith Law: Read the first book, enjoyed it but didn’t feel driven to go to book two.

James: Non-zero chance we see Brendan McKay in the majors this season?
Keith Law: Non-zero but below 5%.

Pat: Houston took Correa way below slot in 2012, then took McCullers at like 41. Would Vaughn be the only option for the O’s if they went the underslot route? Could anyone else like Abrams get in the discussion?
Keith Law: Sure. Abrams, Greene. If Carroll were 6’2″ he’d be a candidate.

Iris: I am conflicted….if it is a white nationalist symbol, why does President Obama still flash the okay sign so often?
Keith Law: I know this is very hard to believe, but sometimes words and gestures mean different things depending on who’s using them or in what context.

Cyril: Not a question but your comment in last week’s chat about Marvel characters solving disputes by throwing one another into buildings made me laugh out loud.
Keith Law: It was my #1 complaint about the Spider-verse movie. Like, guys, it’s a cartoon. You can make the characters do literally *anything* … and they just swing from their spidey-silk and throw each other into buildings!

Matt: Have you heard much about the Padres’ decision to convert Javier Guerra to a RP? When was the last time this guy actually pitched!?
Keith Law: I don’t think he had ever pitched before instructs. Eric Longenhagen has seen him twice now – he’s your best source on that.

Eric: My 3-year-old son is starting preschool in a few weeks. Any tips for getting him prepared so it’s a smooth transition?
Keith Law: I wish I did have good advice. My daughter was all in – the day we dropped her off she ran right in to play with the other kids and introduced herself. She is the opposite of me in so many of the best ways.

Will: Thanks for the update on Bleday & the other #VandyBoys prospects. Any thoughts on Phillip Clarke? He’s another draft-eligible sophomore.
Keith Law: Given that he’s a Vandy sophomore, I didn’t think he was good enough to be drafted (and signable) this year. I could be way off but that was my take.

Kirk: when you put Balazovic on your near miss list, you caught a lot of Twins fans off guard. Stat line looks good so far – still see the same ceiling so far?
Keith Law: Yep, no change.

Hufflepuff: Sam Huff is a 21 year old catcher repeating at low-A in the Sally League. He’s also got 15 home runs this year, and is putting up video game numbers for Hickory. Is it premature to start mentally sliding him up a few rungs on the Rangers prospect rankings list?
Keith Law: Yes, too old for the level.

Andy: Wasn’t Brandon McIlwain supposed to be a surefire first round pick this year?
Keith Law: No, definitely not. Just a name to watch now that he was finally supposed to play regularly (before he got hurt).

Jason: Cristian Pache’s slash line is .319/.366/.540; since all I can do is scout the stat line, should I be concerned about his low walk rate, or is his average so high that you wouldn’t expect him to be walking more?
Keith Law: I doubt he’ll ever be a high-walk guy. I think he’ll hit for enough average, with 20+ homer power, and absolutely elite defense.

Debo: Hi Keith. I am relocating to Wilmington for work. Many of my future colleagues are advising against the Delaware public school system. What was your approach when moving to area? Thanks.
Keith Law: It’s a little district-by-district. There are also a lot of charter schools here, some very good (and some terrible), if you don’t have a philosophical objection to them. And there are many private schools with long histories, some of which are focused on specific areas (e.g., I know of one that’s known as a good sportsball school). Feel free to hit me up outside the chat if this looks like it’s happening.

Josh: I have written ESPN my Plus subscription walks the moment you do. Thanks for all of the consistently high quality work.
Keith Law: You’re welcome – and thank you for that, especially since I’m in the last year of my deal.

JJ: Prospects to watch at a Yardgoats game? Is Phil Nevin’s kid a guy?
Keith Law: He is a guy. Also, what a great ballpark.

Josh: Curious what newspaper(s) you subscribe to, if any?
Keith Law: Digital only: Washington Post, New Yorker.

Jeff: Why does Brett Baty’s age come up a lot more than Bobby Witt Jr.? Is the 6 months that big or is it more the level of talent top 5 vs. mid-late 1st?
Keith Law: Sliding scale – your actual age (probably the delta between your age and the average) goes into the formula. The more days away from the mean you are, the more you get dinged.
Keith Law: Or I guess raised if you’re young.
Keith Law: OK, I went long today to make up for the lost time earlier. It’s been a series of house calamities this week but at least now I can do laundry again. Thank you for your patience and for all of your questions this week. I’m sorry I couldn’t get to more. I will chat again next week and hope to resume the Periscope chats very soon since the draft is just around the corner.

My 2009 redraft piece and note on that draft’s first-round misses are both up for ESPN+ subscribers.

Keith Law: (Brief delay – I’m just finishing up a call with a scout)
Keith Law: And when I die, put a soundsystem in my hearse. It’s Klawchat.

Joe: “Josh Bell can’t play. He’s not a good defender. He’s a big lump. He has bad agility, bad footwork. He can’t run. Supposedly he’s a big power threat, but he hit 12 home runs at first base. This is not a kid! This is his third year in the big leagues! I don’t think he’s got the ability to get better.” – Anonymous Scout, SI

Has any ever been owned harder?
Keith Law: I’ve said this on twitter – if that scout was real, he should not have a job any more. His evaluations were poor, but worse, he was borderline racist.

Sean: Keith, I have two questions regarding Matt McLain: 1) How far has he fallen as a draft prospect this year? 2) Do you think the Dbacks intentionally drafted him and undercut his asking price to either get him cheaper or not sign him, giving them an extra first round pick in this draft knowing they’d have a huge bonus pool?
Keith Law: He’s not in this draft, so I don’t think it’s fair to assess his draft stock now, when he’s got 25 months until he’s back in the draft. As for 2, no, that is absolutely, 100% inaccurate. They wanted to sign him.

Zach: The Pirates have had a suspect recent history in developing raw power prospects, so I remain cautious of Josh Bell. Should I drop the skepticism? I was burned by Pedro Alvarez!
Keith Law: No, you should buy in – I wrote in March that I thought they could have one or more breakout hitters thanks to the new coach/change in approach, and I think I mentioned Polanco specifically.

PhillyJake: As someone who’s given up red meat, are you a fan of either Impossible or Beyond?
Keith Law: Yes to both.

Bobby: When scouting a prospect, do you change seats between innings to view at bats or pitches from different angles, or is there one “best” angle from which to see everything? Thanks, klaw!
Keith Law: For a pitcher, I try to watch at least two innings behind the plate and at least one up the line from his open side. For a hitter, I just want to go up the line to watch his hands.

BigDaddeh: Are there certain orgs/GMs that get attached to prospect pedigree well after the shine has worn off? It seems like when there is a former top 10 draft pick who washes out and is a minor league FA, the same two or three teams have to take one last look at him.
Keith Law: It’s a good question without a firm answer. You might also say that former top 10 picks were often top 10 picks because of fundamental physical attributes that may still be present when they wash out.

Kevin: Do you think Jarren Duran has the potential to be an everyday player on a 1st division team?
Keith Law: Potential everyday player, yes. I don’t know how to answer that more specifically yet.

Mike G: Should we expect Jordan Balazovic to recieve helium during the midseason reranks? Numbers aside, his stuff looks very impressive.
Keith Law: He barely missed my top 100 this winter, so I think I had him in the right range then. He’ll move up due to so many graduations ahead of him. He could move up more now that he’s pitching at a higher level.

adrags: If one was to scout a stat line they may look at what Nate Pearson is doing and consider him one of the top pitching prospects in the game. In reality, what have you been hearing, and what do you think he is? Can he be an ace at the next level? His per inning numbers this year are off the charts, even when factoring in the level he is pitching at.
Keith Law: Two-time top 100 guy – he already was one of the top pitching prospects in the game, certainly. On the right night you will see two pitches that are 70s. But he’s also being used judiciously, to manage his innings, and that may skew the results too – he threw just two innings his last outing, a planned short start, and so he’s not taking on the same workload (or pacing himself, or turning lineups over three times) that most starter prospects would. Doesn’t make him a worse prospect in any way, just a factor to consider when watching his line scores.

Eduardo: Looking at your 2009 recaps, how surprised are you that Tim Wheeler never got a chance with the Rockies, or anyone for that matter?
Keith Law: If I had had more time, I would have looked into that one. It doesn’t make any sense to me.

Mike: What is Griffin Canning’s perceived ceiling, floor? Is he anything other than a potential mid rotation guy?
Keith Law: Potential #2 if healthy.

Blueberry Johnson: Hey KLaw, you going to be at PAX this year? I’m designing a board game that I hope to have ready by then… Would love to meet you and maybe get your thoughts??
Keith Law: PAX Unplugged, yes. Actually going to Origins for two days, Gen Con, and PAXU.

Ameen: Keith – you mentioned that your contract is soon up for renewal and I wanted to let you know that you’re the sole reason why I pay for the ESPN subscription. Hope that you will be justly rewarded soon. SSS aside, how do you assess Nick Allen’s current standing/future outlook? Could he be one of those prospects who somewhat flies under the radar and ends up being an average major leaguer? Is his ceiling of an average major leaguer a reasonable outlook at this point?
Keith Law: I like that kid quite a bit despite his size. He can run, he can really play short, and when I saw him in March I thought he had enough hand strength to hit for average without power, even as the pitching gets better. He’ll always be dinged for his height and concerns about future strength – the difference between him at the plate and Nick Madrigal is small.

Joe: Which bat profiles better: Riley, Huira, Rodgers?
Keith Law: Hiura.

Greg: Any belief that Austin Riley can handle LF this season?
Keith Law: Don’t see why not but I’d rather see him get more reps at 3b.

Mason: I think we made a mistake by forgetting about Aramis Ademan after last year
Keith Law: He’s hitting .255 (with a lot of BB) while repeating the level, and it’s still a lot of weak groundouts. He’s only 20 so I am in no way burying him, but you’re getting way ahead of yourself.

Jon: When you do your re-draft, are you going straight best (in hindsight) player available? Eg/ would the Braves have taken Brandon Belt with Freeman already in the system?
Keith Law: I don’t consider the teams drafting at all for that.

Amed Rosario : What do you think of me? Seems like the bat is coming around but now defense has been iffy
Keith Law: Cautiously optimistic – early days, small sample, but he’s young and showing real across the board progress. No idea what’s going on with his defense.

Ralph: Do any of the Yankee fill-ins- Urshela, Tauchman, Thairo- project as a MLB regulars or at least solid bench contributors?
Keith Law: The Yankees seem to have some sort of woo with these hitting castoffs they find, but I will say I liked Estrada as a prospect before he got shot, and Urshuela was a prospect once upon a time.

Robby: Did Anthony Kay’s stuff jump or something?
Keith Law: No, stuff was great last year too, but he tired a little bit and was also just back from TJ. Fully recovered now. Very promising.

TC: New Of Monsters and Men album coming soon. Have you heard the first single & have any thoughts on it?
Keith Law: Really liked it.

Arnold: The Giants top pitching prospect, Shaun Anderson, made a good debut the other day. Is he good enough to be a top of the rotation starter or are we looking at #3 or #4 guy?
Keith Law: Back of the rotation.

Plz: Giolito. I want to believe but I’ve been hurt before. Can I embrace it yet?
Keith Law: I’m in, but then again, I’ve probably been his strongest advocate as a prospect.

AGirlHasNoName: Been thinking about the Ben Zobrist news, and how impossible it is to keep stuff private, people seem to love to consume the scandalous stuff, but does that mean someone has to provide it to them?
Keith Law: I don’t think this should be any of our business whatsoever. If a player does something criminal, that’s one thing, but the private lives of players should be off limits.

Jordan: Any chance Corbin Carroll falls to the Mets at #12?
Keith Law: Nonzero chance, but very unlikely IMO.

Andrew: Best way to cook a chicken spatchcock style with what seasonings?
Keith Law: Just salt it heavily, set it on a rack in the sheet pan, and pour water in the pan itself so you don’t set off your smoke alarm.

Dave: When do you expect Baum (UNC) to come off the board? Been the Friday guy for UNC this year, shown good velo with a good chance but kinda lackluster off speed. That’s my .02 couch analysis
Keith Law: Third round … I think? College arms may fly off the board this year because there are so few real first-round onezs.

Mike: Hey Keith, after viewing your top prospects for the upcoming MLB draft I noticed that Vanderbilt Ace Drake Fellows was not listed. Where would you rank him/ what round(s) (if any) would be the range for him?
Keith Law: Third to fifth rounds.

Dave: What makes the time travel in Doctor Who tolerable if it’s a dealbreaker for you going to see Endgame? Asking as a fan of both
Keith Law: It’s baked into the premise of Doctor Who. It was tacked on as a plot device in Endgame.
Keith Law: Doctor Who is a time traveler by definition. Same as Connie Willis’ time travel novels – they are inherent to the stories.